"Butterfly Effect" Games in College Football, Part 1 of 3

Looking back at how college football has changed in the last 10 years, I thought I'd take a trip down memory lane and look at some games I call "butterfly effect" games.


In case you haven't seen the movie, based on the time travel theory of the same name, the "butterfly effect" basically refers to the notion that one event, no matter how significant, can create a ripple effect through space and time.

My intention here is to highlight a handful of games from the mid-late 2000s, of varying significance to that year's BCS Championship race, that have led to significant shifts that we see today throughout college football. I plan to highlight three games in the next week, before we hit August and the serious discussion for the 2014 season.

　

2006 Rutgers at Cincinnati

This game came on the heels of an epic Rutgers/Louisville showdown, where the Scarlet Knights upset the #3-ranked Cardinals to become the last perfect team standing in the Big East. A conference title and guaranteed BCS Bowl were within reach. Meanwhile, the Bearcats were enjoying a mediocre season . They were 5-5 heading into this game, with a lousy UConn tem still ahead in the regular season finale.

As it turned out, Cincinnati dominated Rutgers, winning 30-11. And unlike Rutgers, they did not follow up a big win with an upset loss (beating UConn 26-23). The head coach for Cincinnati...Mark Dantonio, who was hired by Michigan State shortly thereafter. Since then, the Spartans have enjoyed two Big Ten titles (2010 shared, 2013 outright) and a thrilling Rose Bowl victory earler this year.

This game was likely what gave Mark Dantonio (who had previously worked at Michigan State as an assistant) the edge. And who was Dantonio's replacement at Cincy? None other than Brian Kelly - who kept the positive momentum going at Cincy to eventually get called up by Notre Dame (and lead the Irish to a perfect regular season in 2012).

Meanwhile, Rutgers has become a team to get close, but not quite attain conference supremacy. A similar situation arose again in 2012, but the Scarlet Knights lost their last 2 games (winning either game would have put them in a BCS Bowl). And now that Rutgers is in the Big Ten, it could be a long time before we see the Scarlet Knight contending for an East Division title.

Net Effects of 2006 Rutgers-Cincy:

- Gave Cincy a sense of team confidence, led to Mark Dantonio getting the Mich St job, led to Brian Kelly getting the Cincy job

- Ruined perfect season for Rutgers, led to "almost there" mindset for Scarlet Knights that persists to this day

Questions to consider:

- Had Rutgers won, would they have been able to complete the perfect season, or at least get to/win its BCS Bowl?  How would this have impacted the Rutgers program?

- Had Rutgers won, would Mark Dantonio have stayed at Cincy? Would he have achieved similar success as Brian Kelly from 2007-2009?  And where would he be now?

- If not Dantonio, who does Michigan State hire in this scenario? And do the Spartans become the Big Ten power they are today?

- With Mark Dantonio at Cincy, where does Brian Kelly go? And is he successful enough there to still land the Notre Dame job after the 2009 season?