Thinking about a 16 team conference

One of the more contentious aspects of college football (especially now that we have the Playoff) is conference alignment and scheduling.  The biggest problem that the larger conferences face is that there are teams in their conference that they rarely see.

For instance, Virginia Tech has played East Carolina 8 times as a non-conference foe since 2007 (including this year's pending matchup).  That is three more times than any ACC Atlantic opponent outside of Boston College (their permanent crossover).  Since joining the ACC in 2004, VT has only played teams like Florida State and Clemson 5 times each, and that number is not going to be climbing very fast.  With only one spot on the schedule for a rotating crossover game, it takes six years to get through all of the teams in the other division, and 12 years for a full home and home.

To balance the growing conferences and speed up some rotations, that means other rivalries and matchups will have to be scaled down.  I'm sure many Hokie fans wouldn't mind trading a year or two of GT matchups to get FSU or Clemson.

We've already come up with one idea that keeps three games protected for each team, with the rest of the conference games rotating.  However, I do like the idea of keeping divisions so that all teams are represented in some way in the championship.

This idea is based on the expectation that the Power 5 conferences will eventually expand to 16 teams and 9 conference games.  Ultimately, it is just a stripped down version of the NFL model.  In the NFL, teams play their own division twice every year, one entire division from their conference every year, one division from the other conference, and the teams from the remaining conference divisions that were ranked the same as them.  If you just take out the other conference and the duplicate division games, you have a college model.

Basically, the conference would have four divisions -- which we'll call North, South, East, and West, to match the NFL terms.  The first three games would be divisional games.  The next four would involve playing one other division, which would mean a team could see their entire conference in three years.

Year 1 - North vs. East, South vs. West
Year 2 - North vs. South, East vs. West
Year 3 - North vs. West, South vs. East

That gets us to 7 games.  The remaining two conference games would match similar ranked teams from the remaining divisions.

For example, in the NFL, we'll use the Redskins.  They finished last in the NFC East.  Their division plays all of the teams in the NFC South.  They also play the teams that finished last in the North and West, which would be the Rams and the Bears this year.

The major change to the current paradigm is that this would require a two part championship.  I think the most fair way is to seed the divisions, so you don't always have the same two pairings facing off.

Now, there is definitely going to be some logistical issues, as configuring a fair home-and-home schedule will be an issue.  Half of the conference will have 4 home games in a given year, while the others will have 5.  That is going to have to come down to which teams have 1 division game at home vs. 2.  Obviously, the division vs. division series can be managed as 2 home and 2 away, with a specific rotation set up, so when they meet up in three years, it would be reversed.  I think the last two games would just have to be scheduled strictly to balance the home and away schedules of the conference.  There will be some stretches where two teams could meet repeatedly in the same venue, because they finish in the same place in their respective divisions and then meet up as cross divisional rivals.

Let's make an example using the last four years of the Redskins.

	2012	2013	2014	2015
division	Cowboys	@ Cowboys	Cowboys	@ Cowboys
division	@ Eagles	Eagles	@ Eagles	Eagles
division	Giants	@ Giants	Giants	@ Giants
cross-division	@ Buccaneers	Lions	Seahawks	Buccaneers
cross-division	Falcons	@ Vikings	@ Cardinals	@ Falcons
cross-division	@ Saints	Bears	Rams	Saints
cross-division	Panthers	@ Packers	@ 49ers	@ Panthers
same rank	@ Rams	@ Falcons	Buccaneers	@ Bears
same rank	Vikings	49ers	@ Vikings	Rams

These are the actual opponents from those seasons.

As for how many times they played each team from their conference over the three year stretch of 2013-2015:

Cowboys - 3

Eagles - 3

Giants - 3

Buccaneers - 2 (both at home)

Falcons - 2 (both away)

Rams - 2 (both at home)

Vikings - 2 (both away)

49ers - 2

Bears - 2

Saints - 1

Panthers - 1

Lions - 1

Packers - 1

Seahawks - 1

Cardinals - 1

For comparison, let's see how many times Virginia Tech played the other teams in the ACC during the same span:

UVA - 3

Georgia Tech - 3

UNC - 3

Duke - 3

Miami - 3

Pitt - 3

Boston College - 3

NC State - 1 (last in 2010, currently in 2015, next in 2022)

Wake Forest - 1 (the internet said they met in 2014, but I don't remember it.  next meeting:  2019)

Maryland - 1 (in 2013, next meeting with Louisville:  2020)

Florida State - 0 (last meeting:  2012, next meeting:  2018)

Clemson - 0 (last meeting:  2011, next meeting:  2017)

Syracuse - 0 (next meeting:  2016)