Revisiting 2016's Predictions

As promised, a look back at the predictions I made for the 2016 season. 


You can click here to see those predictions, with the follow-up to those predictions below.

College Football Playoff

• Peach Bowl: 1 Clemson over  4 Stanford (actual: 1 Alabama over 4 Washington)
• I was wrong about Clemson being #1 and in the Peach Bowl.
• I had one conference right, but the wrong team. Way to make the CFP, Washington!
• Fiesta Bowl: 2 Alabama over 3 Notre Dame (actual: 2 Clemson over 3 Ohio State)
• I didn't peg Alabama as a team that would go undefeated and ranked #1. So much for that "gauntlet".
• Notre Dame - now there's a laugher! Not only did the Irish miss the Top 4, they only won 4 games!
• Championship Game: Clemson over Alabama
• I got the path to the CG totally wrong, but I got this matchup - and result - right on. A true thriller, with the Tigers emerging victorious!

New Year's Six

• Rose Bowl: Nebraska vs Washington (actual matchup: Penn State vs USC)
• Nebraska was on their way, but the committee wasn't a fan of the Huskers' relatively easy schedule. The loss to Iowa sealed their non-NY6 fate.
• Washington did well, like I expected. They happened to do even better by making the CFP. In their place was USC, who lost to Stanford but then went on a tear.
• Sugar Bowl: Tennessee vs TCU (actual matchup: Auburn vs Oklahoma)
• Tennessee was on their way, but upset losses to South Carolina and Vandy doomed the Vols to meet up with Nebraska.
• TCU looked shaky from the start, and ultimately finished 6-6. Make that 6-7 after a bowl loss.
• Late losses by LSU (to Florida), Florida (to FSU and Bama), and Tennessee (to Vandy) gave 8-4 Auburn the ticket to New Orleans - even after Auburn lost their last two meaningful games (Georgia and Alabama).
• Oklahoma was stellar in Big 12 play, becoming the first team to go 9-0. Too bad they lost those two early non-conference games.
• Orange Bowl: Florida State vs Michigan
• Hey, I got this one right on (one for four isn't too bad, is it?)! And what a thriller it was! Congrats on the win, Seminoles, and giving the ACC a 5-game winning streak in the Orange Bowl!
• Cotton Bowl: San Diego State vs LSU (actual matchup: Wisconsin vs Western Michigan)
• LSU was very, very close! But Florida's goal-line stand in the makeup game ultimately kept the Tigers out of the New Year's Six. Though, had LSU beaten Florida, they probably would have gotten Auburn's Sugar Bowl spot.
• Also congrats to Western Michigan, who went 13-0 to get here. Although the Broncos lost to Wisconsin, I was pleased to see the perseverance and competitiveness. 

Surprise Team: Texas

• I had the Longhorns pegged for 9-10 wins. And that opener vs Notre Dame looked like an all-time classic. Too bad both teams missed bowl eligibility!
• The best surprises? Probably Penn State, who won the Big Ten and finished 11-3 after losing an instant classic Rose Bowl. Or perhaps Colorado, who went 10-4 after years of futility.

Disappointment: Ole Miss

• I had the Rebels sliding back from a NY6 bowl, which in fact happened. I miscalculated just how far they would drop, as Ole Miss ended up 5-7 and missing a bowl.
• The biggest disappointment? Probably that whole preseason 10-12 range:
• Notre Dame, who was ranked preseason #10 but went 4-8. 
• Ole Miss, #11 preseason. 5-7 finish.
• Michigan State, #12 preseason. 3-9 (!) finish
• Honorable mention: TCU. #13 preseason, 6-7 finish.

Conference Champions

• ACC - Clemson over Miami (actual: Clemson over VT)
• Right winner, wrong loser
• SEC - Alabama over Tennessee (actual: Alabama over Florida)
• Again, right winner and wrong loser.
• Big Ten - Nebraska over Michigan (actual: Penn State over Wisconsin)
• Nebraska was so close! But Wisconsin ended up the best of the West.
• Penn State was a shocker, but that finish vs Ohio State was epic!
• PAC 12 - Stanford over Utah (actual: Washington over Colorado)
• Both teams finished ranked, but neither actually made the CG.
• Big 12 - TCU, with Oklahoma finishing 2nd (actual: Oklahoma, with Oklahoma State finishing 2nd)
• TCU really disappointed. At least they made a bowl.
• American - South Florida over Houston (actual: Temple over Navy)
• A shining example of how to lose the wrong game. USF and Houston were probably the 2 best teams in the AAC, but they were each doomed by losing to a good divisional rival.
• Mountain West - 11-win San Diego State over 11-win Boise State (actual: 9-3 San Diego State over 8-4 Wyoming)
• Right winner, wrong loser.
• Both teams seemed to pack it in once they clinched their divisions.
• MAC - Western Michigan over Ohio
• Hey, I got one right on!
• Conference USA - Southern Miss over Marshall (actual: Western Kentucky over Louisiana Tech)
• Both of my picks slipped a bit in 2016, particularly Marshall.
• Sun Belt - Appalachian State, with Arkansas State 2nd (actual: App State and Arkansas State co-champs)
• I had the right 2 teams at the top. Just missed out on the co-champs part.
• The teams missed each other in 2016, so head-to-head can't crown an "unofficial" singular champ. 
• For what it's worth, App State did have a better record (10-3, vs Ark St's 8-5). Congrats to both teams for winning their bowls.

Seven Random Predictions:

1. 2015's bowl crisis won't repeat itself, as 2016 will see at least 80 teams at 6-6 or better.
• Wrong. Hawaii got in at 6-7, and Mississippi State & North Texas made it at 5-7.
2. The ACC's will NOT go winless vs Notre Dame.  VT or NC State will pull off an upset.  The Irish win out otherwise, however, and still slip into the CFP (Texas, MSU, and Stanford end up being resume-building wins).
• Correct about the ACC not going winless, WAY WRONG about ND's season.
• VT and NC State BOTH beat the Irish, as did Duke.
• How did Miami, who finished 9-4 and ranked, manage to lose to the Irish?
3. The Big Ten will come down to the last weekend to determine both championship game participants.
• Correct. Wisconsin clinched when Nebraska lost to Iowa. Penn State clinched after the two Saturday games (Ohio State over Michigan, PSU over Michigan State).
4. We'll see our first instance of a TWO-loss team in the CFP (Stanford).  Stanford's PAC-12 Championship will give it the edge over 1-loss non-champ FSU.
• Wrong. We saw a first, just not this one. No 2-loss team made the CFP, but non-champ Ohio State made it as the #3 seed. 
• There were two 2-loss teams in the wings - Penn State and Michigan. Just not enough room.
5. The SEC Championship Game sees its first rematch of permanent cross-division rivals.
• Wrong. Tennessee looked like the real deal early, but those upset losses doomed them.
6. The Big 12 decides to add two teams to the conference, effective 2018: Houston and Cincinnati.
• Wrong. The Big 12 ended up deciding to add...nobody!
7. The Group of Five race for a New Year's Six bowl will come down to Championship Saturday, with at least two conferences firmly in the hunt.
• Correct. Ohio made it a game vs Western Michigan, and Navy was trying to edge WMU had the Midshipmen beaten Temple (and then Army). 
• We got close to the possibility of the Committee holding onto this spot for an extra week, but Temple's upset saved the committee the trouble and made WMU the clear-cut option.