Trip to the College Football Multiverse - Part 1

When looking back at college football, one of the funnest - and most time-consuming - things to do is wonder "what if". Well, let's take one more look at the season that passed and see just how it might have gone down in an alternate universe.

I originally intended to do this as one post, covering a revisit to the 2016 season in three alternate universes:

• Old bowl system (pre-BCS and its predecessors)
• BCS, Bowl Coalition, Bowl Alliance (1992-2013 seasons)
• A hypothetical larger CFP

But, as I sat through each scenario, I found myself asking too many questions about each one. So, I'm breaking this into three parts - starting with the old bowl system.

As someone who became a college football fan during the BCS era, I had to do some reading to discover just how the bowls operated beforehand (and by "before", I mean the BCS and its predecessors). 

• The conference tie-ins we see so much today? Significantly fewer
• Flexibility for conference champs to go to another bowl? Significantly less
• A consensus national champion? Not always, as the AP and Coaches Polls frequently disagreed over the years.

The real drama came on New Year's night, when a handful of teams near the top of the polls often competed in several different games. Would Team A win and essentially clinch the national championship? Or would they lose and open the door for Team B, C, and/or D?

So, with all of this in mind, let's see how the 2016 season might have played out in this old bowl system. And recall, since January 1, 2017 was a Sunday, this season's "New Year's night" would have actually been Monday, January 2.

Conference Tie-Ins

Before the BCS and CFP, the most prestigious bowls were already aligned with a top-tier conference champ.

• Rose - Big Ten and PAC-10 (now PAC-12)
• Sugar - SEC
• Cotton - Southwest Conference (SWC)
• Orange - Big 8 Conference
• Citrus - ACC

Besides the Rose Bowl, the other slot in those bowl games would be filled by an At-Large team.

Over the years, the SWC and Big 8 conference disbanded, leaving the Big 12 in its wake. By this time, however, the Bowl Coalition was in effect, making the bowl implications not quite as clear (in the BCS era, the Big 12 Champ would default to the Fiesta Bowl). 

In addition, several conferences expanded to the point of having Conference Championship Games and Divisions; in essence, the landscape in 2016 is a whole lot different than it was in the early 90s.

For the sake of this exercise, I'm assuming a 2016 landscape with 1990(ish) bowl rules. With the elevation of the ACC, I'm placing them in the Orange Bowl. That leaves the Big 12 Champ to head to the Cotton Bowl.

2016 Season Look-Back and Hypothetical Bowl Selection

At the end of the regular season, we had the following committee-ranked Top 10:

1 Alabama (13-0)   SEC Champs

2 Clemson (12-1)   ACC Champs

3 Ohio State (11-1)

4 Washington (12-1)   PAC-12 Champs

5 Penn State (11-2)    Big Ten Champs

6 Michigan (10-2)

7 Oklahoma (10-2)   Big 12 Champs

8 Wisconsin (10-3)

9 USC (9-3)

10 Colorado (10-3)

Given the automatic berths to bowls as described above, we would have had:

Washington vs Penn State in the Rose Bowl

Alabama vs ???? in the Sugar Bowl

Clemson vs ???? in the Orange Bowl

Oklahoma vs ???? in the Cotton Bowl

I think it's safe to say that the national champion(s) would come out of one of those bowls. 

Now, how about those at-larges for the Sugar, Orange, and Cotton Bowls?

Recall that the AP and Coaches Polls actually had Ohio State ahead of Clemson, after the Tigers won the ACC! Would that have been the case with a 1990 bowl setup? Presumably, the Buckeyes would have had their pick of the litter - surely all three bowls would have issued invites. I'm guessing that Ohio State would have wound up choosing the Sugar Bowl against Alabama and make it a near-certain winner-take-all and possible 1 vs 2 (which, under this bowl system, is anything but a given).

Assuming Ohio State vs Alabama, who do the Orange and Cotton Bowls target? Michigan would be the next-most-attractive team of the bunch, in my opinion, with many feeling they got hosed by the officials in the Ohio State game. I think the Wolverines take on Clemson (only other 1-loss and Top 5 team available) in the Orange Bowl, with the winner hoping for a blowout and then an ugly, sloppy Sugar Bowl.

And that leaves the Cotton Bowl. Who does Oklahoma partner with? USC, in a matchup of name brands? I think so, particularly with the Trojans' head-to-head victory over Colorado. An argument could be made for 13-0 Western Michigan, who might have been a Top 10 team with the "old bowl system" poll mentality, in a David vs Goliath matchup. But I think Oklahoma would have had a say in the matter and opt for USC (they already did the Houston thing, which didn't end well for the Sooners). The losses by both teams might have been too much to overcome for serious national title contention, but both teams were on hot winning streaks and played very well as the season ended.

We would have had (Clemson and Ohio State rankings are listed as AP/CFP):

1 Alabama vs 2/3 Ohio State - Sugar Bowl

3/2 Clemson vs 6 Michigan - Orange Bowl

4 Washington vs 5 Penn State - Rose Bowl

7 Oklahoma vs 9 USC - Cotton Bowl

National Title Implications 

As I mentioned above, it would have been hard not to see Alabama-Ohio State, with Nick Saban vs Urban Meyer, as a winner-take-all for the national title. 

• With Ohio State likely an underdog vs Bama, as opposed to favored over Clemson, would the team strategy have been different? It's hard to ask "could the Buckeyes have beaten Bama" knowing that they did lose 31-0 to Clemson. 
• But had it happened, and Clemson beat Michigan, it could have been OSU #1, and possibly Clemson at number three, assuming a competitive Buckeyes-Tide (who would be #2) matchup.

I am sure Clemson is very happy that this wasn't the system in 2016.

Other Questions

Naturally, with Alabama undefeated going into the bowls, any actual "discussion" would have to involve Ohio State winning. A Bama win would have been a stone-cold lock for another Tide title.

• Assuming an Ohio State win, along with a Penn State win, would any consideration have been given to the Nittany Lions? PSU had the head-to-head and the conference title, but also an extra loss.
• What about Western Michigan? 
• Although the MAC doesn't provide the same strength of schedule, would the Broncos be a Top 10 team with its shiny "0" in the loss column? 
• Would another highly ranked team have even given them a chance? In reality, Wisconsin did play (and beat) the Broncos under the New Years Six arrangement. Other highly-ranked teams include Wisconsin in this alternate reality, along with Colorado, Oklahoma State, Florida State, and Louisville.
• Recall in 1984, unbeaten WAC champ BYU played a 6-5 Michigan team in its bowl. The Cougars did win the game, and with it the national title, but this scenario could have replayed itself with WMU, with much stronger competition at the top of the polls.
• In this scenario, the Fiesta Bowl and Citrus Bowl games would have been open at-large and possible landing spots for WMU and another Top 15 team. Might one of those bowls have tried to factor into the discussion, even if it was a longshot?
• Could Alabama have won the title even with a loss?
• Suppose Ohio State beats Alabama on a last-second controversial call, which was found after the game (but before submitting AP/Coaches votes) to have been a mistake. Could 13-1 and SEC champs beat out 12-1 and a head-to-head? Particularly if Clemson/Michigan doesn't seem up to "par" with the Tide or the Buckeyes?
• In a similar scenario, and assuming a Clemson win over Michigan (in a more convincing fashion than OSU's win over the Wolverines), do critics make a fuss and demand that conference championships should mean more?
• Would everything besides the Sugar Bowl have been an afterthought?
• Undoubtedly, the Alabama-Ohio State matchup would have been publicized and hyped to high heaven. Great for the Sugar Bowl, less so for the other games.
• The Orange Bowl had an outside shot of determining a possible champion, or at least a split one. A Clemson domination over Michigan, coupled with a close Ohio State win over Alabama, might have done it. Common Opponent performance, No. of Wins, and Conference Champion all favor Clemson. Too bad, in this scenario, that Clemson wouldn't have had a chance to beat either the Tide or the Buckeyes (much less both).
• The Rose Bowl and its tradition is always big, and I suppose Washington would have felt they had an argument. But I don't think beating Penn State would have had as much of an impact as Ohio State beating Alabama.
• The Cotton Bowl would have definitely been an afterthought. Even with an impressive winning streak, the simple truth is that USC had three losses (one to Alabama) and Oklahoma had two losses (one to Ohio State).