Until the early 90's, the old bowl system prevailed, which rarely brought us 1 vs 2 games - or an organized determination of a consensus champion - due to rigid conference tie-ins. At that point, multiple conferences and big bowls began to get together for just this purpose.
In order to show how the 2016 season would look under the BCS and its immediate predecessors, it's important to see how each of those systems operated.
Pre-BCS
The 1992 season brought us the Bowl Coalition, where the SEC, Big Eight, and Southwest Conferences would host their traditional bowls (Sugar, Orange, and Cotton, respectively) unless necessary to have a national championship game. The ACC, Big East and Fiesta Bowl were also in the mix to go to - or serve as - the Title Game. This setup lasted for three seasons.
The 1995 season brought us the Bowl Alliance, where three bowls (Sugar, Orange, Fiesta) would rotate to host the national championship game. The Big Eight and SWC disbanded and the Big 12 was formed, which left the Cotton Bowl behind as a "major bowl" until the CFP era brought it back.
Notably absent from both setups? The Big Ten and PAC-10, whose champs were both bound to the Rose Bowl. In 1998, the Rose Bowl joined the party (along with the Big Ten and PAC-10) and became part of the national title game hosting rotation. Enter the BCS.
BCS Era
The BCS was a game-changer, to say the least. With ever-evolving rules for inclusion and access, and its ever-evolving formula using polls and computers, the college football world exploded in popularity over its 16-year run. There are still mentions of "BCS schools/conferences" on sports shows and online discussion communities, three years after the system ended!
Under the BCS, the setup was a blend of its two predecessors. The four BCS Bowls (Orange, Sugar, Rose, and Fiesta) were each aligned with a conference if not part of the National Championship Game. For the first 8 years, these four bowls rotated to serve as the game; in the latter 8 years they alternated as host of a stand-alone BCS Title Game.
2016 Season Alternate Universe(s)
Using the 2016 college football landscape, but the rules of the 90s and 2000s, below is my best guess at what we might have seen.
Bowl Coalition
- National Title Game: #1 Alabama vs #3 Clemson in the Sugar Bowl.
- The Orange, Cotton, and Fiesta get...???
- Likely tie-ins: Oklahoma, Florida State, Auburn, USC
- Other at-large contenders: Colorado, Oklahoma State, Western Michigan
Bowl Alliance
- #1 Alabama vs #2 Ohio State in the (Orange, Sugar, Fiesta) Bowl
- Other guaranteed tie-ins: #3 Clemson, #7 Oklahoma
- Top 5 at-large contenders (2 get invites, based on bowl preferences):
- Michigan, Wisconsin, USC, Colorado, Florida State
BCS Rankings
Oh boy. This is something that evolved a ton during the BCS era. For simplicity's sake, I'll use the info from BCSKnowHow.com's tweet below.
A few caveats:
- The AP Poll is being used for the comparison, rather than the now-defunct Harris Poll used from 2005-2013.
- The computer component takes into account margin of victory, which was eventually taken out of the BCS computers.
- Some of the AP/Coaches poll voting could simply be reflective of CFP Committe voting. This could be different in a world without such a committee.
Bowl Championship Series (Rotating Title Game)
- Rotating Title Game (Rose, Sugar, Fiesta, Orange): #1 Alabama vs #2 Ohio State
- Automatic Berths: Clemson, Oklahoma, Penn State, Washington
- Likely at-large contenders (2 get invites):
- USC or Colorado
- Florida State
- West Virginia or Oklahoma State
- Western Michigan
- BCS controversies of the season:
- Should Ohio State really be #2 ahead of Clemson?
- Should Penn State be ahead of Ohio State, even with an extra loss?
- Michigan and Wisconsin were ineligible due to 2 teams per conference rule. Should this rule be abolished, at least for a third Top 5 team like Michigan?
- Should an undefeated non-power conference team get an automatic berth to a BCS Bowl?
Bowl Championship Series (Stand-Alone Title Game)
- BCS Title Game: #1 Alabama vs #2 Ohio State
- Rose Bowl: #4 Washington vs #5 Penn State
- Seems like destiny in a non-CFP world!
- Orange Bowl: #3 Clemson vs ??? (At-Large)
- Fiesta Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs ??? (At-Large)
- Sugar Bowl: ??? (Alabama replacement) vs ??? (At-Large)
- Automatic Berths:
- #12 Western Michigan (MAC Champ)
- Picked as choice #3 for Orange/Sugar/Fiesta at-large
- At-Large Pool (3 get bowl invites, with my best guesses in Italics):
- #9 USC or #11 Colorado (only one, to keep the 2 teams per conference rule)
- USC picked as choice #1 for Orange/Sugar/Fiesta at-large
- #10 Florida State
- Picked as Alabama replacement in the Sugar Bowl
- #13 West Virginia or #14 Oklahoma State (only one)
- Oklahoma State picked as choice #2 for Orange/Sugar/Fiesta at-large
My Thoughts:
- I didn't give the American an automatic berth. Had they still had it in this setup, take out one of the at-large teams and insert Temple as choice #3 for the Orange/Sugar/Fiesta at-large (giving WMU the selection edge due to its unbeaten record and hot-name coach).
- Even had there been an automatic spot for the American Champ, Western Michigan was automatically in with its #12 ranking.
- Even if Auburn would have been in the Top 14 (normal at-large cutoff), they wouldn't have been eligible for an at-large with their 8-4 record. It took a minimum of 9 wins to get in.
- Without the plethora of Big Ten teams and contractually-bound Auburn, Oklahoma State would have benefited from the extra space - making a BCS Bowl in this alternate reality despite not making a New Year's Six Bowl in "Real World 2016".
- I chose USC and Oklahoma State due to their head-to-head wins over their conference counterparts. The bowls might have liked Colorado's feel-good story of re-emergence, or West Virginia's 10-win season. But I think on-the-field would have prevailed.
- Like 2011, this is a season that could have given us a 1-loss conference champ (Clemson...and Washington, for that matter) losing out on the BCS Title Game appearance in favor of a quality 1-loss Ohio State.
- It's possible the media would have favored 12-1 Clemson and its conference title, leading the polls to vote accordingly. But with wins over Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Michigan, it's almost impossible to imagine the Buckeyes not having a significant computer lead over any other 1-loss team.
- It's even funnier knowing what happened in reality, with the CFP system. Not only did Clemson get to play Ohio State AND Alabama, but they beat BOTH of them! And the game vs the Buckeyes wasn't even close!
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