Week 10 wrap up

The SEC is fully decided.  Does anyone want to win the Pac-12 South?  Is Maryland feeling nostalgic for the ACC with their one possible scenario to win the division?

Remember, all records listed here are just conference records.

We've added a new category for teams out of control.  They still have a slight chance to win their division, but it will involve tiebreakers.  In most cases, it requires the team leading the division to lose out while the team in question wins out.

ACC
Atlantic
Controls destiny:
-Clemson (6-0) can clinch the division with a win.
-Boston College (4-1) is eliminated with a loss to Clemson.  If they beat Clemson, they would either need to win out, or at least win one of their last two games while Clemson loses their last game.

Out of contention:
-Syracuse (4-2), NC State (3-2), FSU (2-5), Wake Forest (1-4), Louisville (0-6)

The only chance Syracuse (4-2) and NC State (3-2) have is to force a 6-2 tie, which would have to involve Clemson losing out.  In that scenario, BC would beat Clemson but lose to Syracuse, and would be 6-2 at best.

4 way tie (Clemson/BC/Syracuse/NC State):
-Clemson and Syracuse would be 2-1, BC and NC State would be 1-2.
-Clemson clinches with head-to-head over Syracuse.

3 way tie (Clemson/Syracuse/NC State)
-Clemson clinches with head-to-head over both teams.

3 way tie (Clemson/BC/NC State)
-all three teams would be 1-1
-Clemson would be 5-1 in division, while NC State and BC are 4-2
-Clemson clinches with best division record.

3 way tie (Clemson/BC/Syracuse)
-all three teams would be 1-1
-Clemson and Syracuse would be 5-1 in division, while BC is 4-2
-Clemson clinches with head-to-head over Syracuse.

As you can see, Clemson comes out ahead in all of those scenarios.

Coastal
Controls destiny:
-Pitt (4-1) has tiebreakers over UVA, GT, and Duke.
-VT (3-2) has a tiebreaker over Duke.  They lost to GT.  They will be eliminated with a loss to Pitt.

Needs help:
-UVA (4-2) needs 2 Pitt losses.  They have tiebreakers over Miami and Duke.
-Miami (2-3) needs a UVA loss and an additional Pitt loss.  They will be eliminated with a loss AND a Pitt win.

Out of control:
-GT (3-3) needs losses by VT, Pitt (3), and Duke.  They have a tiebreaker over VT.  They will be eliminated with a loss AND a Pitt win.

After doing all of the work below to determine that Duke is out of contention, I don't have the energy left to figure out the various possibilities for GT.

Out of contention:
-Duke (2-3), UNC (1-5)

It takes a bit of work to figure out that Duke is eliminated, but it all comes down to tiebreakers.  Duke's best record would be 5-3, with a 3-3 divisional record.  They cannot win the division outright, because Pitt, VT, and UVA would all need to be 4-4 or worse.  However, if Pitt and UVA both lose out to get to 4-4, VT would get at least two more wins.  No matter how the season plays out, at least one team out of VT/Pitt/UVA is getting to five wins.  That means that the only two way ties that would favor Duke (over GT or Miami) are impossible.

Any tie involving three or more teams cannot involve both GT and Miami, as they have yet to play each other, and the loser would drop down to 4 losses.

There are no three way ties that work for Duke.  They outright lose any that feature two out of VT/UVA/Pitt.  They lose on division record to ties involving Miami and Pitt or VT, as well as GT and VT or UVA (at least one other team is 4-2 or better in division).  Pitt beat both Duke and GT, and would win that tie outright, just as UVA beat Duke and Miami.

Even if any four or five team ties are possible, Duke would only have a win over one of the other teams in the group (GT or Miami), so they would be eliminated on tiebreakers in the first step.

A six way tie is impossible due to GT/Miami.

Bowl eligible:  Clemson, Notre Dame, UVA, BC, Syracuse, NC State, Duke
One game away:  Miami, Pitt, GT
No bowl:  UNC, Louisville

SEC
East Champion:  Georgia (6-1)
Georgia has clinched the division with the best record, and potentially head-to-head tiebreaker over Kentucky (5-2).

West Champion:  Alabama (6-0)
Alabama clinched the division with the best record, and potentially the head-to-head tiebreaker over LSU (4-2)

Bowl eligible:  Georgia, Alabama, Florida, LSU, Kentucky, Auburn, Mississippi State

One game away:  Texas A&M, Missouri, South Carolina
No bowl:  Ole Miss, Arkansas

Big Ten
East
Controls destiny:
-Michigan (6-0) has tiebreakers over PSU, Michigan State, and Maryland.
-Ohio State (5-1) has a tiebreaker over Penn State.

Needs help:
-Michigan State (4-2) needs 3 Michigan losses.  They have tiebreakers over Penn State and Maryland.  They will be eliminated with a loss AND a Michigan win.

Out of control:
-Maryland (3-3) needs to win out, have Michigan lose out, and have Michigan State beat Ohio State but lose their remaining games.  They will be eliminated this week with a loss OR a Michigan win OR an Ohio State win over Michigan State.  The full breakdown on Maryland's remaining chance to win the division is explained here.

Out of contention:
-Penn State (3-3), Indiana (1-5), Rutgers (0-6)

Any tie that Penn State would force at 6-3 would have to include Michigan.  Maryland cannot be part of that tie, since PSU would give them their fourth (or more) loss in the final week of the season.  Penn State already lost to Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State, and therefore has no tiebreakers.

West
Magic number:  5

Controls destiny:
-Northwestern (5-1) has tiebreakers over Wisconsin and Purdue.

Needs help:
-Wisconsin (4-2) needs 2 NW losses.  They have tiebreakers over Illinois and Iowa.
-Purdue (4-2) needs 2 Northwestern losses.  They have a tiebreaker over Iowa and Illinois.
-Iowa (3-3) needs a Wisconsin loss.

Probably out soon:
-Illinois (2-4) lost to Purdue and Wisconsin.

Out of contention:  Nebraska (1-5), Minnesota (1-5)

Bowl eligible:  Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State
One game away:  Northwestern, Maryland, Purdue
No bowl:  Rutgers, Nebraska

Pac-12
North
Magic number:  5

Controls destiny:
-Washington State (5-1) has tiebreakers over Cal, Stanford, Oregon State, and Oregon.
-Washington (5-2) has a tiebreaker over Stanford.  They lost to Oregon and Cal, who is behind them in the standings.

Needs help:
-Stanford (3-3) needs losses by Washington State (3) and Washington (2).  They have a tiebreaker over Oregon.  They will be eliminated with a loss AND a Washington State win.
-Oregon (3-3) needs losses by Stanford, Washington State (3), and Washington.  They have a tiebreaker over Cal and Washington.  They will be eliminated with a loss AND a Washington State win.

Out of control:
-Cal (2-4) needs losses by Oregon (2) and Washington (2), plus 2 additional losses by Washington State.  They have a tiebreaker over Washington.  They will be eliminated with a loss OR Washington State win.

Out of contention:
-Oregon State (1-5)

South
Magic number:  6

Controls destiny:
-Arizona State (3-3) has a tiebreaker over USC and Utah.

Needs help:
-Utah (4-3) needs an Arizona State loss.  They have tiebreakers over UCLA, USC, and Arizona.
-USC (4-3) needs losses by Utah and Arizona State.  The have tiebreakers over Arizona and Colorado.
-Arizona (4-3) needs losses by Utah and USC.  They have a tiebreaker over Colorado.
-UCLA (2-4) needs losses by Colorado, Utah (2), and Arizona.  They have a tiebreaker over Arizona.
-Colorado (2-4) needs losses by Arizona (2), USC, and Arizona State.  They have tiebreakers against UCLA and Arizona State.

UCLA and Colorado will be eliminated with a loss AND either a Utah or USC win.

Bowl eligible:  Washington, Washington State, Utah, Oregon
One game away:  Colorado, Stanford, Cal, USC, Arizona, Arizona State
No bowl:  Oregon State, UCLA

Big 12
Controls destiny:
-WVU (5-1) has tiebreakers over Texas, Baylor, and Texas Tech.  They lost to Iowa State.
-Oklahoma (5-1) has tiebreakers over Texas Tech, TCU, Iowa State, and Baylor.

Needs help:
-Texas (4-2) needs a WVU loss.  They have tiebreakers over Oklahoma, TCU, and Baylor.  They also lost to OK State.

-Iowa State (4-2) needs losses by Oklahoma (2) and WVU.  They have tiebreakers over Texas Tech, OK State, and WVU.

-Texas Tech (3-3) needs losses by Oklahoma, WVU and Iowa State.  They have tiebreakers over OK State, and TCU.

-Baylor (3-3) needs losses by WVU (3), Oklahoma (3), and Texas (3).  They have a tiebreaker over Oklahoma State.

Probably out soon:

-Oklahoma State (2-4) needs losses by Texas Tech (2), Iowa State (2), and Texas (2), plus additional losses by WVU and Oklahoma.  They have a tiebreaker over Texas.
-TCU (2-4) needs losses by Texas (4), Texas Tech (3), and Oklahoma (4), and Iowa State (3).  They have a tiebreaker over Iowa State.

Both teams will be eliminated with a loss this week - Oklahoma State plays Oklahoma, and TCU plays WVU.

Out of contention:

-Kansas State (1-5), Kansas (1-5)

Current projection for the Big 12 championship game:  WVU vs. Oklahoma or Texas

If Texas wins out, and WVU and Oklahoma win out prior to their Black Friday matchup, then Texas and the WVU/Oklahoma loser will be 7-2, and the WVU/Oklahoma winner would be 8-1.  (Texas winning out would drop Iowa State down to at least 3 losses.)

Scenario #1:  WVU beats Oklahoma.
Result:  WVU (8-1) would play Texas (7-2, plus tiebreaker over Oklahoma)

Scenario #2:  Oklahoma beats WVU
Result:  Rematch the following week of Oklahoma (8-1) against WVU (7-2, plus tiebreaker over Texas)

Bowl eligible:  Texas, Oklahoma, WVU
One game away:  Texas Tech, OK State, Iowa State, Baylor
One loss away from nothing:  Kansas, Kansas State