Sunday, January 3, 2021

2020 Bowl Season Look-Back

 First off, Happy 2021 to all!  I hope that it's full of prosperity, happiness, and much closer to normal than 2020 was!


We've made it through the bowls - with just a National Championship Game remaining. And while there will be plenty of anticipation and breakdown for Alabama and Ohio State between now and January 11, I wanted to take a moment and look at the big picture of the bowl season that has just gone by.

Conference Records

Big 12             5-0
MAC                2-0

Sun Belt          4-1

SEC                  6-2
Big Ten             3-1

MWC                 2-1
Independent      2-1

AAC                  1-5

Pac 12              0-2
CUSA                0-6
ACC                  0-6


The Good:

  • The Big 12 and its perfect 5-0 record. Including 2 dominant wins in NY6 Bowls!
    • Even more impressive when Iowa State could have been outside of the NY6 if the committee had determined the last at-large team differently based on the listing/discussion/ranking steps of Iowa State; Indiana; and Coastal Carolina. No "bump up" effect here (which I will discuss again in a moment).
    • And props to West Virginia for stepping up and taking on Army. When Tennessee cancelled, WVU could have called it a season. But they accepted the challenge, became one of the heroes of the bowl season, and even pulled off the comeback win. The Big 12 did NOT take the easy way out here, and they deserve all the praise they can get!
  • Although they only played 2 games, actually seeing the MAC on the winning side of them was a positive. Bowls have been a real struggle for this conference over the past decade or so.
  • The Sun Belt stepping up. This isn't a one-year thing; as the SBC has been netting some impressive bowl records for a few years now. It would be great to see better opportunities for its top teams on a more regular basis.  If only Coastal had pulled off that Cure Bowl...
  • ...but at least rising Independent Liberty pulled off a great season. And even netted their first-ever win against an AP Top 10 team. As a Hokie it pains me to say it, but the Flames were the best team in Virginia this season.

The Bad:
  • The ACC. I could dedicate a whole post to the pitiful performance of a conference that had 5 ranked teams; 2 Playoff teams; and 3 NY6 teams. I really hope this 0-6 performance doesn't ruin the goodwill in the years to come. 
  • And this isn't a 1-year pandemic thing; the ACC has been taking it on the chin for a few years now in bowl season. Hopefully the new Commissioner is able to help these schools do what they need to do to field more competitive, more winning teams. Especially in the future, when Notre Dame will be Independent once more. 
  • The PAC-12 and Conference USA were also winless, so at least the ACC's not alone in its misery. 

The Questionable
:
  • The SEC had 3 losing-record teams play - and win - bowl games. On top of that, they all beat teams that were ranked!  
    • Is this is a good sign of parity throughout college football - at least outside of the top handful of teams?  Or a bad sign that the SEC is simply just better than anyone else no matter their record?  
    • If it's the latter, it's either a wake-up call to the rest of the country, or a white flag that says everyone else just can't compete (Oklahoma and Northwestern - and maybe Ohio State - being the exceptions).

  • Did the ACC simply suffer a "bump up effect" due to having 2 CFP teams, rather than being vastly overrated? 
    • Had the committee chosen Texas A&M over Notre Dame for the #4 spot, that would have created an Irish-Gators Orange Bowl. Given how so many Gators opted out, and ND's drive to overcome the NY6 hurdle, I can easily see this one going differently.
    • In turn, this would have bumped UNC out of the NY6. And although the ACC bowls now don't have a specific "order", I would like to think the Cheez-It Bowl in Orlando would have produced a solid ranked Oklahoma State / UNC matchup.  Favor UNC.
    • Miami, in turn, would have been much better off against one of the unranked teams (Wisconsin, which Miami would have liked to finally avenge;  or Kentucky). And if that changes Wake and NC State to more favorable matchups, then even better!
    • That wouldn't have affected the Clemson loss. But after so much recent success, I cannot fault the Tigers too much for having a bad game. It happens to everyone (2016 season, Ohio State vs Clemson; 2018 season, Alabama vs Clemson).
    • This "bump-up effect" also seems to impact the American, whose bowl record was only slightly better (Memphis over FAU to prevent the sweep). 

  • After this bowl season's results, will we see some of the committee criticism die down? Note that ESPN (especially Rece Davis) will quickly say that results do not justify selection. But will the public see it that way?
    • The selection of Iowa State over Indiana and Coastal Carolina as an at-large? 100% correct.
    • Moving Oklahoma to #6, ahead of Cincy and Georgia? 100% correct.
    • Notre Dame over Texas A&M? Neutral, at worst. ND didn't do any worse against Alabama than A&M; and the Aggies beat UNC by an identical margin (with the 2nd TD coming as a late-game clincher after a generally close game throughout).
    • Pushes for expansion? There may be other reasons this could happen (mass opt-outs becoming a greater norm; further de-emphasis on bowl season). But it's not because there are more teams with a legitimate claim to hang with #1 (YAWN at 2 more non-competitive semi-finals to open up 2021).

  • Will anything from the "weird pandemic year" take hold on a permanent basis? Losing record bowl teams? Mass opt outs? Increased reliance on the "eye test" to select CFP and NY6 teams? Only time will tell... 

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