Tuesday, December 22, 2020

2020 NY6 Thoughts and Reflections

 Despite all of the changes and uniqueness of 2020, some things remain a constant. One of those things: the College Football Playoff.

The Top 4

For the first time in the CFP Era (7th year), there are no newcomers to the Playoff. But one team was close!

There was little doubt that unbeaten Bama, and 1-loss Clemson (that loss being avenged in style), and even unbeaten Big Ten Champ Ohio State (despite its fewer number of games played) would be the Top 3 teams. And they were, in that order. 

The biggest part of the debate was Notre Dame and Texas A&M. Two non-champions. Each with a single loss - a blowout loss to a Top 2 team. Each with a win over an 8-3 team (A&M over Florida; ND over UNC). While this ended up being A&M's best win, what ultimately allowed Notre Dame to prevail was  an even better win: Clemson in South Bend. 

Even though Clemson was without key players in that first matchup - all of whom proved pivotal in the ACC Championship Game - that game counts too. And I truly believe that a less-than-100% Clemson is a step up from Florida (while granting that Florida is perhaps a half-step up from UNC).

So with all these things in play for the 2020 season, I must say that I agree with all 4 teams - and in their respective spots. Much respect to A&M, though. And sympathies to Aggie fans.


I've already seen groans of the "same old teams" in the Playoffs. Some even suggesting to go back to the BCS! But I maintain that it's a "power vacuum" issue, not a Playoff issue. We're seeing Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State at such heights to where they're all teams that have people watching to see them, or to see them lose. If there ever is expansion, doing so because of this specific issue would only be a fool's errand - as all three would probably be right there in the semifinals anyway. 


I'm also happy to see this season's Rose Bowl relocated to Texas. With Los Angeles and Pasadena going through critical mass COVID spikes right now, they need all the hospital space they can get, with minimal out-of-town travel coming in. And as someone who has great respect for safety protocols and limiting unnecessary exposure, I actually agree with the notion to allow family to attend games as Brian Kelly and Dabo Swinney have advocated. May both semifinals go smoothly and safely - not only from the virus, but from injuries and anything else!


New Year's Six

I'm surprised Oklahoma jumped as high as they did, rather than "meeting in the middle" with Iowa State. I thought the close game would give us OU at 7 or 8. And while Florida played valiantly against Alabama (better than anyone else this season), I figured that Cincy did just enough to rank above a 3-loss Gators team and a 2-loss Big 12 Champ. 

I was rooting for more "underdog" type teams to make it into the NY6, and they came close. The committee was in a place, after ranking the Top 9 teams in its incremental process, to determine the final NY6 at-large spot in its next "listing step / ranking step" iteration. 

They were left with:

  • A 3-loss Big 12 runner-up that played 5 ranked teams. One of those being a regular-season win over #6 Oklahoma.
  • A 1-loss Big Ten East runner-up Indiana. An impressive record, and a close loss against Ohio State. But an abbreviated record nonetheless, and no wins over winning-record teams.
  • An unbeaten Coastal Carolina. Sun Belt Champ. 2 wins over ranked teams (both in the Teens, one of them a game scheduled 2 days prior). Undefeated, but fewer wins over winning-record teams. 
An argument could have been made for any of them. It does make me wonder if Coastal could have jumped ahead if they had been able to play their Conference Title Game, and add one more ranked win? Or perhaps idle Indiana, if Iowa State hadn't been able to rally to lose respectably? 

But in any event, I am happy to see 3 ACC teams in the NY6 - and some new faces in the NY6 with the Tar Heels, Texas A&M, Cincinnati, and Iowa State. Up to three could win.  One of them will (the A&M-UNC Orange Bowl). 

The conferences that played longer seasons (ACC, SEC, Big 12) ended up being rewarded with multiple NY6 spots, and the extra money that goes with them. Without those three conferences doing what they did, there would have been no season.


Some NY6 fun facts:
  • The Orange Bowl is the first non-CFP NY6 Bowl matching up National Champion Head Coaches*.   Jimbo Fisher (A&M) and Mack Brown (UNC) both won in a thriller...in Pasadena...with previous schools (Brown and 2005 Texas; Fisher and 2013 Florida State).

  • The Fiesta Bowl features the lowest-ranked NY6 participant yet: #25 Oregon. The previous low? Last year's #24 UVA team in the Orange Bowl. No G5 team has been ranked lower than #20 (2014 Boise State).

  • Two NY6 bowls feature rematches of BCS Title Games, and they're both being played in Arlington, TX. The relocated Rose Bowl (Alabama-Notre Dame; rematch from 2012 Season), and the Cotton Bowl (Oklahoma-Florida; rematch from 2008 Season).

  • The most-commonly played semifinal is being played in the Sugar Bowl this season. Clemson and Ohio State are meeting in the THIRD CFP Semifinal (they also met after the 2016 and 2019 seasons). No other semifinal matchup has occurred more than once.

  • The Peach Bowl features a Group of 5 team (Cincy) against a Power 5 team playing in-state (Georgia). The G5 team - in both cases the American Champ - is 2-0 in NY6 Peach Bowls (2015 Houston over Florida State; 2017 UCF over Auburn). The G5 is also 1-0 against a P5 team playing its NY6 Bowl in-state (2014 Boise State over Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl).
* Not counting the 2015 Season Fiesta Bowl between Ohio State and Notre Dame, as Brian Kelly has won a Division II National Title with Grand Valley State.


For what it's worth, here's what the NY6 lineups would have been had this simply been a different year of the rotation. Basically UNC, Indiana, and Iowa State each had a 1/3 chance of being left out. 

Orange/Cotton Semis:
Cotton Bowl: 1 Alabama vs 4 Notre Dame
Orange Bowl: 2 Clemson vs 3 Ohio State
Rose Bowl: 25 Oregon vs 11 Indiana
Sugar Bowl: 6 Oklahoma vs 5 Texas A&M
Peach Bowl*: 7 Florida vs 8 Cincinnati 
Fiesta Bowl: 9 Georgia vs 10 Iowa State
*giving UF the closer bowl due to H2H and higher ranking over UGA
Difference: 13 UNC out; 11 Indiana in

Peach/Fiesta Semis:
Peach Bowl: 1 Alabama vs 4 Notre Dame
Fiesta Bowl: 2 Clemson vs 3 Ohio State
Rose Bowl: 25 Oregon vs 11 Indiana
Sugar Bowl: 6 Oklahoma vs 5 Texas A&M
Orange Bowl: 13 UNC vs 7 Florida
Cotton Bowl: 8 Cincinnati vs 9 Georgia
Difference: 10 Iowa State out; 11 Indiana in

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