Welcome back to another round of "Perception vs Reality." This time, we'll tackle the criticism of the CFP era's seemingly narrow group of teams - as well as the question "do only a handful of teams have a shot?"
The Issue
The 4-team College Football Playoff era has lasted 7 seasons so far (2014-2020 seasons). That means that there have been 28 slots granted to teams. A summary of teams and slots is listed below:
- Alabama - 6 (only miss: 2019 season)
- Clemson - 6 (only miss: 2014 season)
- Ohio State - 4 (2014, 2016, 2019, 2020)
- Oklahoma - 4 (2015, 2017, 2018, 2019)
- Notre Dame - 2 (2018, 2020)
- Oregon & Florida State (2014), Michigan State (2015), Washington (2016), Georgia (2017), LSU (2019) - 1 apiece
The first four bullet points above account for 20 of the 28 spots. That's basically led to critics calling it the "Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma or Ohio State, and 1 other" tournament.
On its face, it looks like a big issue. Without looking at any further context, it would appear that we have a power consolidation, where only a select few teams even have a shot.
But is that really true?
The Nature of Dynasties
With scholarship limitations, and an increasing willingness to let students transfer without sitting out, the opportunities for parity are greater than ever before. At the same time, we have the winningest championship coach in FBS history in Nick Saban.
Add to that the conference championship dynasties of Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma, and it's easy to see why other teams get easily frustrated and fearful of this becoming a perpetual norm.
It's not impossible to beat Saban and the Tide. But it takes a very special team to pull it off. In fact, each of the 4 other CFP Champs had to beat Saban and the Tide along the way (Clemson twice in the Title Game itself; Ohio State in the Semis; and LSU in the regular season).
Meanwhile, Clemson is enjoying a program high at the moment, with Dabo Swinney netting a pair of "twins" of CFP trophies. Ohio State hasn't lost a regular season game under Ryan Day. And Oklahoma hasn't failed to win the Big 12 yet under Lincoln Riley.
But like all humans, none of these are perfect, and a high can only last so long. Even Bobby Bowden's 14 straight seasons of Top 5 finishes ended eventually. And in the cases of Riley and Day, it'll be interesting to see what happens as they get more distance - and less direct influence - between them and their iconic predecessors (Bob Stoops and Urban Meyer, respectively).
Close Calls
Even though only 11 programs have accounted for the 28 slots, it's not exactly fair to say that other programs were never in contention. In fact, these teams could have all made it with just one slight tweak in history:
- 2014: Baylor or TCU were surely in the discussion among the CFP committee that ultimately chose Ohio State for the 4th slot. It's not hard to imagine the conversation going a little differently in an alternate universe.
- Each team was also tied (Baylor, vs West VA) or ahead (TCU, vs Baylor) going into the 4th Quarter of the game that would become their only loss. Hold it together for one more quarter, and there's not even a co-champs or Ohio State discussion!
- 2015: Iowa was a Michigan State 4th Down conversion away from winning the Big Ten Championship as an undefeated team. That would have been one "different" team booting another.
- North Carolina believed they had a case, had they been able to beat Clemson and add that kind of win to an otherwise weak resume. I'm skeptical, but I suppose a convincing win might have done the trick (for example, if Clemson had crumbled after the "botched fake punt" incident).
- Stanford, even at 2 losses, believed they had a case as well. Perhaps a UNC win, coupled with a more convincing Michigan State win over Iowa, would have given the Cardinal the boost they needed to jump over both Clemson and Iowa, and stay ahead of UNC?
- 2016: Virginia Tech was about 20 yards from the end zone near the end of the ACC CG. Justin Fuente has since said he would have gone for 2 if VT had made it. Had that TD and 2PC happened, and if the Hokies had beaten Clemson, then we're having a Penn State/Michigan discussion for the 4th spot.
- 2017: Wisconsin lost a close one to Ohio State, after having a chance at a late game-winning drive. Had the Badgers pulled it off, they would have been in instead of Alabama.
- Miami and Auburn were also in contention going into Championship Game weekend. But convincing losses for each put a convincing end to those runs.
- Earlier in the regular season, Penn State gave up a big lead to Ohio State. Had the Nittany Lions pulled it off, with or without a hangover game against Michigan State, it's possibly a winner-take-all against Wisconsin for the CFP spot - leaving Ohio State AND Alabama out in the cold.
- 2018: Michigan was a dropped Maryland 2-point conversion against Ohio State away from clinching the Big Ten East - a week before The Game. Had that Maryland 2PC been successful, with Ohio State reduced to the role of spoiler against Michigan, it's possible that the Wolverines handle the moment better. Had they done so, and then took care of Northwestern in a rematch, it would have been an interesting discussion for the 4th spot between 12-1 Michigan vs Oklahoma.
- 2019: Going into Championship Weekend, we had a few CFP opportunities for non-regulars:
- Georgia would have been in, had they beat LSU. This would have given us 2 SEC teams, as LSU was otherwise dominant on the season and undefeated entering the weekend.
- Utah was ranked ahead of Oklahoma and Baylor going into the weekend. A dominant win over Oregon, instead of what ACTUALLY happened (an Oregon whooping of Utah), might have been enough to make up for the Big 12 having a "better" CG win.
- Given Utah's loss, and assuming a Georgia loss later in the day, Baylor was in great shape at this point. In a rematch of a game that Oklahoma rallied fiercely to win just a few weeks prior, and with some key injuries, Baylor managed to make it to Overtime. Given the results of the other games that weekend, the Bears WOULD have been in, had they been able to knock off the Sooners.
- 2020: Texas A&M was in prime position for a spot, ultimately coming down to a discussion with Notre Dame. And like 2014, I'm sure the conversation could have easily gone differently in an alternate universe. Other things that would have helped A&M: a 2nd Notre Dame win over Clemson (to knock the Tigers out), or Northwestern being able to hold onto its early lead over Ohio State (to knock the Buckeyes out).
- Florida was also in contention until the penultimate week. Had they not been shocked by LSU, and then pulled off just a few more points against Alabama, the Gators could have easily been in as well (likely over Notre Dame).
So in summary, the following teams may not have made it, but they were in contention (or at least believed they were in contention) well into the season:
- Baylor
- TCU
- Iowa
- Stanford
- UNC
- Michigan
- Penn State
- Auburn
- Miami
- Wisconsin
- Utah
- Texas A&M
- Florida
Although this doesn't change the "20 spots for 4 teams" statistic, hopefully it shows that just a few different things could have changed that narrative greatly over the years. Instead of just 11 programs making it over the course of 7 years, we can at least point to 13 more that have been close enough to see it.
Conclusion
This is NOT an attempt to dissuade a larger playoff (which would undoubtedly provide more access), or to deny the reality that a handful of programs (Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma) are all experiencing great program heights at the moment. It takes a truly special season - such as 2019 LSU - in order to break the norm.
But hopefully what I was able to do was show that other teams have certainly had a chance - even if that chance came up short. Sometimes by virtue of a slightly different committee decision; other times by virtue of a single game that could have had far different implications with a different result. The longer the Playoff goes - regardless of size - the greater that our variety will eventually be.
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