Perception vs. Reality: Team-Specific Tidbit Edition

 With the college football season now less than 100 days away, I wanted to wrap up this offseason post series before we get to the 2021 Season speculation in the months ahead. And to close: a handful of claims about specific teams.

CLAIM 1: Notre Dame is a Phony

I'm just picturing the "big fat phony" guy from Family Guy pointing to South Bend whenever the Irish are contending for a national championship. And plenty of real-life people have taken this approach. 

While things are better than the disastrous coaching tenures between Lou Holtz and Brian Kelly, it seems like Notre Dame has struggled in the greatest of games:

• 2012 season: BCS National Championship Game (lost to Alabama, 42-14)
• 2018 season: CFP Semifinal at the Cotton Bowl (lost to Clemson, 30-3)
• 2020 season: CFP Semifinal at the (relocated) Rose Bowl (lost to Bama, 31-14)

Even the Kelly-era highlights seem to be met with some skepticism.

• 2012: beat eventual Big 12 co-champ Oklahoma in Norman ("but K-State was the REAL champ")
• 2013: only team to beat eventual 13-win, #3 Michigan State ("but a bad call went in ND's favor")
• 2020: beat #1 at the time Clemson ("but Clemson was without Lawrence and a couple defenders")

Reality:

I'm certainly convinced that Notre Dame is below that "elite" tier we see at present. Like the 2020 regular season ND-Clemson game, it will probably take some special circumstances for ND to pull off the win. And had a couple of key upsets not happened in 2012, it's quite possible that the Irish fare better against Kansas State or Oregon (depending on the timing of the Manti T'eo catfish impact).

But I'm also convinced that the Irish are firmly in that next group: the "NY6 regular contender / CFP occasional contender." And as Oklahoma showed in their most recent outings against Alabama and LSU, there's gotta be a 4th team! 

For what it's worth, in both of ND's CFP losses, they actually lost by fewer points against the eventual champ than the Championship Game runner-up (2018 Clemson beat ND by 27, and Bama by 28;  2020 Bama beat ND by 17 after a late ND TD, and Ohio State by 28 with no scoring in the final 13 minutes).

Once ND faces an "equally-yoked" NY6 team (in other words, not necessarily a CFP game, or a Fiesta Bowl against an ultra-talented Ohio State team that finally reached their potential), I fully believe they will get that "no major bowl wins in a generation" monkey off their back.

Here's a fun fact: since the ND-ACC agreement began in 2014, the Irish have played an ACC Championship Game participant in the regular season each season:

• 2014 Florida State (narrow, and controversial loss)
• 2015 Clemson (narrow, rain-soaked loss)
• 2016 Virginia Tech (narrow loss due to furious Hokie comeback)
• 2017 Miami (ummm...not narrow...but I'm still convinced that no one would have beaten Miami that night)
• 2018 Pitt (win)
• 2019 UVA (win)
• 2020 Clemson (win)

CLAIM 2: Alabama's dynasty is a product of luck

I touched on this before in my end-of-season recap. But I wanted to elaborate a bit more.

With 6 national championships at Alabama, and one more at LSU, no one can deny the skill and the greatness of Nick Saban. Especially since all 7 of those championships came in the BCS and CFP eras, where Saban's teams had to defeat other top-level teams of the season.

Even still, some will try to claim that Saban's first few Bama teams required an unreal amount of luck to get to where those championships and set the stage for the ones that followed.

• 2009: 2 blocked FGs vs. Tennessee; Colt McCoy goes down for Texas
• 2011: Oklahoma loses to Iowa State?!?!?!?
• 2012: K-State loses to Baylor?!?!?  AND Oregon loses to Stanford?!?!?!?

Reality:

What I think gets under-emphasized is the handful of things that haven't gone the way for Saban's  Bama teams: 

• 2008: Undefeated team leading after 3rd quarter; couldn't hang on against Tebow and the Gators
• 2011: Missing all those FGs in the regular-season LSU game. Win that one, and there's no question about Bama's "luck" or needing Oklahoma State and Stanford to lose their games.
• 2013: One of a few different plays could have won the Auburn game in the 4th quarter. Even the Kick Six was borne out of a play that would have won it for Bama then & there had it been successful.
• 2014: Ohio State came out of nowhere with Cardale Jones, even factoring in the Wisconsin game
• 2016: Just ONE MORE SECOND!!!  But Deshaun Watson and Hunter Renfrow had other ideas.
• 2019: As close as the LSU and Auburn games were, does Bama win those with a 100% Tua?

I don't deny that an element of luck exists in college football. But even the most dominant of champions have had some positive fortune along the way.

• 2010 Auburn: right-place, right-time transfer in Cam Newton; close wins against Clemson, Kentucky, and a massive comeback vs Alabama
• 2018 Clemson: clutch win against Syracuse, fueled by backup QB
• 2019 LSU: right-place, right-time transfer in Joe Burrow; close wins against Auburn and Alabama
• 2020 Alabama: the existence of a season!

So I don't buy for a second that Alabama is a product of luck. If anything, we could sit back and wonder how Saban hasn't broken the "no one has won 3 straight" ceiling...yet???

CLAIM 3: Virginia Tech needs to move on from Fuente

If I'm picking specific teams to consider for evaluating common claims, how could I not pick my own?  

There are certainly some negative trends from Fuente's first year with VT in 2016 (10 wins and a Division Title), to the present (2020: losing regular season record). In addition to the pure win-loss:

• Recurring losses to inferior teams (2016 Syracuse, 2016-18 Georgia Tech, 2019 Duke...by 35 points)
• Giving in-state schools program-defining wins (2018 ODU, 2020 Liberty)
• In-game coaching blunders (particularly in 2020, with Liberty and Miami standing out)
• A missing sense of transparency, leaving fans feeling closed-off to the program

Reality:

Even with all that, I have great respect and hope for Fuente. Some of the things are arguably out of his control (Beamer-era players working well in 2016 and 2017, but then raising locker problems in 2018). Just the fact that Fuente is succeeding a Hall of Fame program-changer in Frank Beamer was an uphill effort from the moment it was announced.

Some of the positives that have come from Fuente:

• Effective transfers. Bringing in a QB in his first year was pivotal in that Coastal Championship. And while Hokies are far greater at exporting players since the advent of the Transfer Portal than importing, some of the incoming talent (pre- and post-portal) have provided some thrillers!
• Refusal to give up. 2016 was the greatest example from an in-game perspective (Notre Dame and Arkansas, and almost Clemson in the ACC CG). 2019 was a great example from an in-season perspective (disastrous 0-2 start, to playing UVA for the Division). 
• Breaking the "Fedex Field Curse" with a thrilling win against West Virginia.
• Not using 23 missing players and 2 missing coaches as an excuse, and dominating a superior team in NC State after a delayed start to the 2020 season.

So my response to the claim: wait and see what 2021 has to offer. It doesn't have to be a championship (UNC, and Miami to a lesser extent, are legitimate threats). But as long as there are signs of progress, evidence of the "positives" mentioned above, an ability to move on from at least some of the "negatives," and maybe a little luck, there can be reasons for hope once the season gets a chance to play out.

Conclusion

As with my other two posts in this series, my intent is not to disprove or debunk claims that have been made. But rather, to paint a bigger picture of a greater situation and show that things aren't always as simple as they seem. Context matters.

And even with that context, I certainly understand if you choose to uphold the claims that have been made. But hopefully I've shown that a lot of these are really more a matter of opinion, rather than absolute fact.

And as I mentioned at the top, we've reached the part of the year where we can look forward!  Early-season TV schedules are set, we have a full slate of non-conference games, and a much greater sense of optimism across the country!  Can't wait to begin the Preview posts very soon!