2021 Season Predictions

 After an eventful off-season that could end up changing the whole outlook of the sport as we know it, we're finally at the 1-week point before games begin! And with that, comes another round of pre-season predictions!

Conference Champs

The past few years have seen some very predictable patterns: consistency in the Power Conferences, and variety in the Group of 5 Conferences.  And since my goal is to predict correctly, rather than draw eyeballs with "hot takes," some of these picks are going to seem pretty boring.

ACC: Clemson over UNC

Clemson has had a stranglehold over the ACC since 2015. And while there may be some more "mortal" moments compared to recent years, the Tigers are still kings of the hill when championship time arrives.  

UNC is also very-well coached, and has been on the upswing during Mack Brown's second stint. Even with a random trip-up like last year's FSU and UVA games, I expect UNC to have at least 10 wins entering Charlotte.

Big 12: Oklahoma over Oklahoma State

Iowa State is getting a lot of dark-horse love, and I can see why. But Oklahoma State tends to have the number of highly-ranked contenders from outside of their own state (2013 Baylor; 2015 TCU; 2018 Texas; and even last year's Iowa State). I think that continues this season, with the Bedlam game in the regular season finale serving as more of a preview for the following week. That being said, Iowa State will still have a great record (10-2), and should still find themselves contending for a NY6 at-large spot.

Of course, even in most of OSU's best years, they've struggled mightily with Oklahoma (2011 being the obvious exception). And with Oklahoma returning so much offensive AND defensive production, this could finally be the year under Lincoln Riley that it all comes together and the Sooners are CFP-bound for reasons other than "there have to be 4 teams."

Big Ten: Ohio State over Wisconsin

Like Clemson and Oklahoma, the Buckeyes have had a stranglehold over their conference - winning their last 4 in a row. Even with the talent that must be replaced, Ohio State has been one of those "super-recruiters" that just out-talents the opposition. And unlike his predecessor, Ryan Day has done a masterful job avoiding the random upset (see Urban's losses to VT, Iowa, and Purdue).

Wisconsin, for their part, seems to be on an every-other year trend in the West. Northwestern and Iowa figure to pose credible threats, but I know Wisconsin does their best when they're not being highly-praised. And like past years, I figure that Wisconsin will come close, but once again short, against the Buckeyes.

PAC-12: USC over Oregon

Consider this payback from last year, when Oregon upended USC's perfect (short) season. I think fans of USC are ready to move on to a new coach, but another Rose Bowl for the Trojans will probably derail those plans once again.

With a normal season now in the fold, I predict we start to see some more normal things. Such as a PAC-12 Championship Game featuring a pair of strong, but non-CFP contenders due to conference parity. Both also have a really tough non-conference road game that could add 1 to the loss column (Oregon/Ohio State; USC/Notre Dame). 

SEC: Alabama over Georgia

People want 2021 to be that return to normal. The SEC never even left normal, as 2020 featured yet another Alabama-Florida game.  This time, look for the Bulldogs to take that step back up and win the East. And with other SEC West programs still on the (re)build, that division seems like Alabama's even more than usual! That said, A&M does seem to at least be a half-step ahead of the non-Bama pack, and could end up with a lofty record and NY6 bid as a result.

Look for another close Bama-Georgia game, and another round of Georgia wondering "will we ever...?" And honestly, I'm really doubting that a former Saban assistant will ever beat him (even as Jimbo at A&M, Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss, and Smart are all building seemingly solid programs).  The question for Georgia is: can they avoid stubbing their toe along the way - including that Week 1 monster clash against Clemson - and possibly make it into the CFP with just 1 loss?

American: SMU over Cincy

This is where things get interesting!

Cincy's very highly-ranked, and rightly so. They return a lot of production from last year, including an improving coaching staff. Meanwhile SMU figures to bounce back after injuries derailed their season last year. And even though Cincy may get the Mustangs in November, a G5 conference revenge upset could very well pave the way for another conference to contend for that NY6 spot.

Conference USA: Florida Atlantic over UAB

I don't think either team is within striking distance of a NY6 bowl, but I know UAB has been on the rise with a veteran coach. And while Willie Taggart failed miserably at Florida State, his FAU team was on the rise at the end of last season. Look for him to take that next step, and pull off a C-USA title.

MAC: Ball State over Kent State

I went with the veteran staffs for this pick. I think Kent State will struggle with its non-conference, while Ball State has a slight chance of pulling off a Penn State upset if the Nittany Lions are suffering a hangover from their Wisconsin opener. Alas, I don't think that will happen, and the NY6 implications will be slim.

Mountain West: Boise State over San Jose State

Here's where I think the NY6 implications could get interesting. Both teams have powerful non-conference games that they could conceivably win if things go right (BSU vs. UCF and Oklahoma State; SJSU vs. USC). Even if those fall short, this could still be a matchup of 10 or 11-win teams that avoid each other in the regular season. If this happens, the winner will have a legitimate shot at a Fiesta Bowl bid.

Sun Belt: Louisiana over Coastal Carolina

I applaud the Sun Belt for becoming more than just the "last" G5 conference. Last year, a COVID outbreak robbed us from a thrilling, ranked championship game. And even without the game, CCU was just a Tulsa upset away from the Peach Bowl!

This time around, the two teams avoid each other in the regular season. UL will have a tough non-conference foe (Texas, in what will be a ranked opening matchup), while Coastal will have a P5 team (Kansas) that should be a significant underdog to the Chanticleers. Meanwhile, both teams have App State, who won't just go down without a battle.

If this ends up being a matchup of two 11-1 or better teams, then the conference will be right in the NY6 hunt for the 2nd year in a row.

CFP and NY6 Predictions

So with all that said, how do I actually predict things to look?

CFP Orange: 1 Alabama vs 4 Ohio State
CFP Cotton: 2 Clemson vs 3 Oklahoma

Rose: USC vs Wisconsin
Sugar: Georgia vs Oklahoma State
Peach: Texas A&M vs Notre Dame
Fiesta: Boise State vs Iowa State

- Ohio State is the only CFP team with a loss this season. And Clemson's Georgia win keeps them above Oklahoma.
- A&M and ND get to settle the score of who SHOULD have been in last year's CFP. And can ND shake their major bowl losing streak - last winning one in the 1994 Cotton Bowl (1993 season) against Texas A&M???
- Wisconsin has lost their last 4 Rose Bowls. Can they shake that monkey off their back?
- For the 2nd time in the NY6 era, Oklahoma State is in the Sugar Bowl despite losing their last 2 games of the season (in 2015, they lost to Baylor and Oklahoma; this time, it would be losing to OU twice in a row)
- The two teams in the Fiesta Bowl haven't known how to lose it (Boise at 3-0; Iowa State 1-0). But one of them has to this time!

The ACC, without the at-large NY6 bid due to the Orange Bowl semifinal (and a UNC loss to Notre Dame), manages to regain some national respect and a strong setup for 2022 with a solid bowl showing.