What Will It Take...First National Title

 After watching my beloved Hokies do so well in both baseball and softball, yet falling short of the College World Series (final 8) in either sport, there was a certain mix of school pride and consternation. And ultimately, the question "what will it take" to break that ceiling and win a team national title??

One thing's for sure: it's tough!  As this is a college football blog, I'll shift my attention to the sport as a whole, and ask if anyone has a path to ascend to those greatest heights - at least as far as FBS is concerned.

The last time ANY team won a consensus national title for the first time was in the 1996 season, when the Florida Gators won their first title. This was in the Bowl Alliance era, which immediately preceded the BCS that would come two seasons later.

As such, no teams in the BCS or CFP eras have won their first national title. Or at least a consensus one. With all due respect to the NCAA-sanctioned "selectors" (generally computers or calculations such as the Colley Matrix), 2008 Utah and 2017 UCF are still in the hunt for their first consensus national titles.

Interestingly, several schools have won a title at some point in the past, such as Syracuse or Minnesota.  But it's been a looooong while (1959 and 1960, respectively). In some cases, such as Oklahoma State (then called Oklahoma A&M), the title came retroactively (their 1945 team was awarded a Coaches Poll title...in 2016)!

Close but not Quite

Since the Gators broke through in 1996, there have been a few schools that were close:

• 1999 Virginia Tech made it to the BCS Title Game, and even led after the 3rd quarter. But Florida State just had too much left in the tank and pulled ahead in the 4th quarter. 
• 2010 and 2014 Oregon. The former in the BCS era, the latter in the CFP. Both made it to the title game, and while the 2010 team was close (lost on a walk-off field goal), the 2014 team was no match for Ohio State's magical 3rd-string QB 3-game run.
• 2021 Cincinnati made the CFP as a Group of 5 team. Unfortunately, they didn't make it far, as the Bearcats ran into a powerful SEC Champion and #1 seed Alabama team.

And a handful of programs that were close to making the title game in quest of their first national title:

• 1998 Kansas State, who was undefeated headed into the Big 12 Championship Game and led Texas A&M by 15 after 3 quarters. But a rally by the Aggies and a win in OT derailed those plans. Also of note, the 2012 K-State team, who got to #1 in the weekly BCS rankings - only to get toppled at Baylor in a bit of a stunner.
• 2000 Virginia Tech. Had Michael Vick not been hurt for the Miami game late in the season, it would have been interesting to see how that game went. As it is, the #3 Hurricanes pulled off the victory over the #2 Hokies and derailed those hopes. 
• 2001 Oregon. The Ducks were ranked #2 by both the AP and Coaches Polls after the regular season. But the more-complex BCS formula at the time had them at #4. Their #2 - a Nebraska team that lost its regular season finale to Colorado in a 62-36 rout.  
• 2007 West Virginia. I've lamented on this game before, in what could be one of the greatest "butterfly effect" games of all time. But once again, all it took was for the #2 Mountaineers to beat a 7-loss Pitt team in Morgantown on the last night of the regular season. What a way to celebrate the 100th Backyard Brawl!
• 2014 Baylor. After scoring an epic comeback against rival TCU, Baylor ended up losing just a single game not long after to West Virginia. Even with a 4-team CFP in place, there just wasn't enough room for the one-loss Bears.  Also of note: 2019 Baylor, who suffered two heartbreaking losses to Oklahoma in the span of a few weeks.

So What Will It Take?!?!?

Now that we've looked back, let's look forward! We've seen programs come oh-so close since 1996, almost at the clip of every 2-3 years. So it's not like there aren't contenders.

To answer the question, I look to the teams that may have won a title before, but not for a long time. That would be teams such as 2016 Clemson (35 years) or 2021 Georgia (41 years).

During their ascent, both programs had to deal with several frustrations that could easily apply to a "virgin" team:

• Program pressure. The longer a team goes without a title, the more the drought is magnified. Phrases like "since 1980" or "since (long time ago) was President", or in our case "never" pack a heavier punch the longer they can be used. It's not unfathomable to see this pressure spill over to coaches or players. The key to shake off this pressure: focus on a step-by-step approach, and perfecting the art of managing each of the next four bullet points.
• Heartbreaking losses. While performances such as Clemson and Georgia's first CFP Championship appearances are commended, they ultimately ended in losses for each. With that comes the compounding thoughts "what if this play were different", or "can we even make it back to this game?" It's the ultimate mix of frustration and fear that puts fans on edge - sometimes within their own communities. A mindset of "we WILL be back" can go a long way, as long as the coaches/players/school all do their parts to put those final pieces in place.
• Winning Big Games. Along the way, programs have to move on from being "happy to be in the mix" to actually winning the big game!  And chances are, the title game won't be that game.  Maybe the "big game" will only be a step, with the actual title coming later (Clemson won big bowls against LSU and Ohio State, and a big regular-season game against Notre Dame all before their drought-breaking 2016 season). But the key is: don't look for moral victories, look for REAL victories!
• Avoiding Upsets. Nothing derails progress like losing a game and being upset. And for many teams seeking their first title, the lone loss may enough to end those hopes if the contending team was enjoying an unexpected run. They may not have the experience handling success like they do handling adversity. Nor may they have scheduled as strongly years in advance, putting them at a disadvantage with other 1-loss teams. The upset might also be one of 2 losses, all but formally removing them as a contender when just a single loss might have been OK (2013 South Carolina losing to Tennessee; 2021 Baylor losing to TCU).
• Consistency. College sports are cyclical and high-turnover in nature.  With NIL and the Transfer Portal in full force, it's easy to see that being more true than ever.  Things that helped Florida break that ceiling in 1996 (Steve Spurrier's 7th season, Sr. QB and Heisman winner Danny Wuerffel, and a year after getting blown out by Nebraska in that year's title game), and other teams come close since, is consistency. Coaches, coordinators, offensive and defensive systems all take a while for players to learn and become accustomed to. And while there are plenty of high-impact freshmen or transfers, having a mark of experience gives teams huge leg up in those "big game" environments.

With all that said, I think we're closer to our next first-timer than we are our last (so in other words, within 26 years). Some programs have had "perfect storm" seasons such as 2010 Auburn or 2019 LSU that could theoretically happen for a program like Oregon. 

And seeing coordinator success at schools like Baylor (former LSU and Wisconsin D-Coordinator Dave Aranda just HC'ed Baylor its first-ever 12-win season) gives me hope that another recent D-Coordinator (Brent Pry) can do great things at Virginia Tech!