2022 Season Look-Ahead

It's here - another college football season! And with a twist this year - I decided to wait until the Sunday of Week 1 to do my annual look-ahead post.

I don't think any sport is more built on anticipation than this one! 

• From the days of speculating "if this team loses this game, then our team can jump to #1 in the polls"
• To the BCS rules that allowed us to speculate auto-qualifiers (the 3/4 Rule; Notre Dame; the non-AQ thresholds) or non-qualifiers (2 teams per conference max.)
• To the present CFP and its own quirks (the semi-final rotation; the Orange Bowl opponent; and the Group of 5 champion race)

With so much talk of conference realignment and an expanded playoff dominating the off-season (and in the case of the latter, the news coming out on Friday of Week 1), it fits right in with the speculative nature of college football.

That being said, it's important to enjoy the moment we're in too! And with that, here are a couple of my thoughts on how 2022 opened.

SEC Dominance vs. PAC-12

As annoying as it to hear the talking heads go on and on about the SEC, it's ultimately up to the other conferences to step up and do something about it. The fact is that a Top 10 Utah team lost on the road at unranked Florida, and a Top 15 Oregon looked like an FCS team against Georgia. 

And it's not just this year. 2018 and 2019 gave us eventual PAC-12 champs that lost to non-champion Auburn teams. 2021 at least gave us a Week 1 UCLA home win over LSU, but even that Bruins team had an advantage of playing a Week 0 game against Hawaii.

Call it PAC-12 weakness.  Call it southern football culture.  But the fact is the gap is ever-present!

ACC Road Woes

Every P5 conference has someone who goes on the road to a G5 team.  Even the SEC had Vandy go to Hawaii in Week 0 this year! But this year, the ACC was in center stage - and almost paid royally for it!

As a Hokie, I hope better days are ahead for Coach Pry. But once again, the fact is that there are a LOT of things to learn! And once again, VT has to rebound from a loss at Old Dominion. UNC and NC State almost (and arguably should have) fell victim to the same fate against in-state foes (App State and ECU, respectively). Credit the American and Sun Belt teams for their efforts, but the ACC needs to do better as a whole! Even BC losing at home as a favorite to Rutgers is something that needs to change!

Close Games

From the Week 0 matchup between Northwestern and Nebraska, to the Backyard Brawl, to the Ohio State-Notre Dame game (at least until the last few minutes), it was awesome seeing a lot of thrillers to open the season! Conference games, rivalries, and Top 5 matchups are bound to do that!

Hopefully this is one of the POSITIVE effects of the loosened transfer rules from the past few years. Less stockpiling, and more top players playing!

Elite vs. the Rest

The Caesars Sportsbook was taking bets on the national champion before Week 1. One of their options was "Alabama/Georgia/Ohio State" vs "The Field" (anyone other than the aforementioned three teams). Top recruiting has always been the key to a championship run in college football. But once again, these three teams seem to be heads and shoulders above everyone else.

Others can certainly rise up on a special occasion (see Oregon beating Ohio State, or Texas A&M beating Alabama last year). And for what it's worth, Notre Dame held tough against the Buckeyes this year. We'll see what Clemson does to justify its #4 preseason ranking, but the Irish could have another opportunity to knock off a Top 5 team when November rolls around.

The good news about three teams being so dominant: there's more room for the next tier. The "great" but not necessarily "elite".

• Who else can slide into the CFP? Another non-champ? Another undefeated G5 team? A 2-loss team?
• Can someone rise up (P5 or G5) and find themselves a surprise contender for a New Year's 6 bowl?
• After quite a few rankings upsets in 2021, will 2022 go closer to chalk or be more of the same fun from a year ago?
• What games from this weekend don't seem like a surprise now, but might have us scratching our heads in December (example: 13-win and eventual Top 20 Louisiana losing to 5-7 Texas last year)?

Predictions

With a game completed for everyone except LSU, Clemson and Georgia Tech (Florida State picking up a Week 0 win), I'll go ahead and "lock in" my picks for the season.

ACC Champ: Clemson over Pitt

Big Ten Champ: Ohio State over Minnesota

Big 12 Champ: Oklahoma over Baylor

PAC-12 Champ: USC over Utah

SEC Champ: Georgia over Alabama

Highest G5 Champ: UCF (beating Cincy). The Sun Belt champ is also ranked, but not as high.

CFP

Peach: 1 Georgia vs 4 Clemson

Fiesta: 2 Ohio State vs 3 Alabama

Interestingly, a perfect 4-for-4 with the top of the AP Preseason poll. 

NY6

Rose: USC vs Michigan (full of tradition)

Sugar: Texas A&M vs Oklahoma (renewal of an old conference rivalry, and preview of an upcoming one)

Orange: Notre Dame vs NC State (not a rematch, as these two don't play in the 2022 regular season; and also triggers the ACC's higher Orange Bowl payout)

Fiesta: Baylor vs UCF (deja vu from the Fiesta Bowl 9 years ago)

And with that, here's to a happy 2022!  For some, THIS is the most wonderful time of the year!