It's been a couple months since my first "CFP era" butterfly effect post. I'm back, and this time with a game that was one of THE defining moments of the season - and perhaps even beyond - even though neither team was an actual Playoff participant! I also wanted to wait until this week to post this, as the date April 25 (4-25) holds some significance when talking about this game!
The Buildup
This was looking to be one of Ole Miss's best teams in school history. For the second year in a row, the Rebels beat Alabama, and going into November were in full control of their destiny to go to the SEC Championship Game for the first time ever.
A non-conference loss to Justin Fuente's Memphis Tigers (that plus the BYU bowl win the previous year sold me on what VT could be...boy was I wrong!), coupled with a blowout loss to conference foe Florida, were holding Ole Miss back from being a Playoff contender. But a 10-2 season, a Division title, and the potential to knock off Alabama and LSU in the same season were still very much in play. Going into this game, Hugh Freeze's Rebels were ranked #18 and back on the rise after nearly dropping out of the Top 25 altogether.
Arkansas, meanwhile, was still trying to find its footing under Bret Bielema. In his 3rd season, the Razorbacks seemed to find a groove after a tough start to the season that featured a loss to Toledo (admittedly, a good Toledo team that would end up 10-2). Even if a Division or Conference title were out of grasp, the ability to grab momentum was very much still on the table.
Nationally, Alabama was working their way back up the rankings after their Ole Miss loss. Despite dropping out of the Top 10 at the end of September, the Tide picked up some big wins against Top 10 (at the time) Georgia and Texas A&M. The day of the Ole Miss/Arkansas game was also the day of the Alabama (by this time, ranked #4) / LSU (ranked #2) game. An Arkansas win would revert divisional destiny control solely to the Alabama-LSU winner later that evening.
The Game
A thriller and a classic! Neither team led by more than a TD at any point. Better yet, four quarters were not enough to decide this, and it went to Overtime tied 45-45.
In OT, Ole Miss had the ball first and got a TD. The score at this point: 52-45 Ole Miss.
During the Arkansas possession, Ole Miss forced a 4th and 25 (4-25....see what I did there!). Game over, right?
Not quite.
Arkansas QB Brandon Allen threw a pass to WR Hunter Henry, who then threw the ball backwards to RB Alex Collins. Collins picked up the ball on a perfect bounce, ran for the first down, then fumbled! Thankfully for Arkansas, teammate Dominique Reed recovered.
The Razorbacks would go on to get a TD of their own that drive. And instead of kicking an extra point and seeing what a 2nd OT would hold in store, Arkansas went for the 2-point conversion right there and then!
At first, it looked like an Ole Miss victory, as there was a QB sack. But as Lee Corso would say, "not so fast, my friend!"
It turns out the Rebels committed a facemask penalty, which gave Arkansas another shot. And with that 2nd shot, their QB would run it in for the game winner! Final score: 53-52 Arkansas!
The Aftermath
Ole Miss was no longer in control of the SEC West. Alabama would beat LSU later that evening and gain back control. Alabama was still in "must win" mode, though, as a 2nd conference loss would give control back to the LSU-Ole Miss winner. But sure enough, Alabama won out. They beat a ranked Mississippi State team and an unranked Auburn team to finish 11-1 and champs of the SEC West.
Ole Miss would win out after the Arkansas loss, including ranked LSU and Mississippi State, securing a 9-3 season and the second-highest ranking in the conference (allowing the Rebels a Sugar Bowl berth).
Alabama would beat Florida in the SEC Championship Game, and go into the CFP ranked #2 behind undefeated (at the time) Clemson. In the CFP, the matchups would be 1 Clemson - 4 Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, and 2 Alabama - 3 Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl.
The top two seeds advanced with convincing victories (which would be too much of a semifinal trend between 2015 and 2021), and Alabama would beat Clemson in a thriller to win their first CFP title and their 4th natty under Nick Saban. This would be the first of 4 straight years where Alabama and Clemson would go head-to-head, with each team alternating wins - and titles (although in 2017 Alabama beat Clemson in a semi, and would go on to beat Georgia in another thriller to win that season's title)!
The "What If"
Although it was Alabama and Clemson competing for the title, many argue that it was Arkansas - Ole Miss that led to it. Had Ole Miss been able to pull off the win at home against the Razorbacks, and assuming everything else stays the same (a BIG assumption), then it would have been an Ole Miss-Florida rematch for the SEC Championship.
After the Ole Miss-Florida game on October 3, Florida QB Will Grier would be caught with some performance-enhancing substances and ultimately leave the team (and wind up at West Virginia). It's quite possible that the rematch would have gone the other way without Grier, who was a pivotal part of that dominating win over Ole Miss in the Swamp.
Also in this scenario, we're looking at 11-2 SEC Champ Ole Miss, compared to 11-1 non-champ Alabama. With this being only the 2nd year of the CFP, and the previous year giving such emphasis on conference championships and the conference title game (Ohio State over Baylor and TCU), I'm sure people would have been making a case for Ole Miss due to their conference title, strong schedule, and H2H over Alabama.
Others would have pointed to Alabama. Despite being a non-champ, having just the one loss and a solid schedule were very attractive. And as we would see the next year (Ohio State over Penn State for the CFP), a conference title and H2H weren't the end-all, be-all when looking at 2 losses versus 1. Especially when one of the losses was a blowout (2015 Ole Miss to Florida, 2016 Penn State to Michigan).
The "what if" questions I have:
- If Ole Miss had beaten Arkansas, and ultimately won the SEC, would their 11-2 have been considered "better" than Alabama's 11-1?
- Even if Alabama still makes it in the CFP at 11-1 and a non-champ, is their seeding different when compared to 12-1 Big Ten Champ Michigan State and 11-1 Big 12 Champ Oklahoma?
- If Alabama is #4 and facing Clemson in the semis instead of the Title Game (Orange Bowl, rather than Glendale, AZ), is the result the same?
- If Oklahoma and Michigan State are opponents in that year's semi, does a win (and thus, an appearance in the NCG) keep Bob Stoops or Mark Dantonio at their respective schools any longer? How does this affect the succession of coaches at these schools, if at all?
- Without Alabama-Clemson "Round 1" in the national championship, does this "mini-rivalry" develop over the next few seasons? Does Dabo manage to win two titles of his own?
- With an SEC title and possibly Top 5 finish, is Hugh Freeze able to better leverage the situation at Ole Miss when allegations begin to unfold?
- If Freeze leaves Ole Miss with that SEC Championship and Top 5 finish on his resume, is he able to land somewhere a little more high-profile than Liberty, who was just transitioning to FBS? Does that, in turn, impact other Virginia schools and their recruiting/results (possibly even leading to the 2020 Liberty at VT game going the other way)?
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