Happy Summer, everyone! After a couple of early CFP-era “butterfly effect” games, I thought I’d finish this little series (at least for now) with a batch of games that could have totally re-shaped the highs and lows of my beloved Virginia Tech Hokies.
I’ve got the pre-BCS, BCS, and CFP eras covered. This is certainly not all-inclusive, and I anticipate covering even more games in the future!
1995 Sugar Bowl vs Texas
The first major bowl for the
Hokies, and the first win!
1995 VT saw a world of ups and downs just to get to the bowl game:
- The Hokies started with a preseason ranking (#24 AP),
- Dropped the first two games (including a 16-0 shutout at home against Cincinnati that remains the LAST time the Hokies have been shut out as of this writing),
- Saw a stellar turnaround the very next week, with an upset and first-ever win over Miami; and
- Defeated a ranked Syracuse team 31-7 in a November matchup for the conference crown.
- Faced fears that despite the H2H victory, the Hurricanes would edge out the Hokies for the Bowl Alliance auto-bid to a major bowl (the Big East didn’t have a tiebreaker just yet).
- Saw those fears relieved when Miami chose to take a bowl ban that season due to NCAA infractions, rather than putting it off for the future.
The Sugar Bowl itself was one of the all-time Hokie highlights. But it sure didn’t start that way! Texas jumped out to a 10-0 lead in the 2nd Quarter, making VT look like a bunch of starstruck kids! But it was all Hokies from there! A TD to cut the lead at halftime, followed by a 2nd-half shutout, gave the Hokies a decisive 28-10 victory over the Longhorns.
- Was the Sugar Bowl APPEARANCE enough to give VT the national recognition it needed for the years to come? Or was it specifically the WIN? Had the Hokies lost, would Beamer have still been able to build the program to a point of national contention? And does VT still get its 1999 season?
- Both Virginia schools were ranked through the latter part of the 90s and into the early 00s (with UVA seeing its own highlight in 1995 by becoming the first ACC team to beat Florida State in conference play). Had VT not recovered from its 10-0 deficit to Texas, and looked rather unimpressive in that game, might the Virginia talent of those next several years have been a bit more split between the two major Virginia schools – thus creating two good but not one great team?
- Adding to the “Texas keeps going” train of thought. Had this happened, and the results of 1994, 1996 and 1997 stay the same (VT lost big in their bowls against Tennessee, Nebraska and UNC), would 4 straight convincing bowl losses have given VT a NEGATIVE reputation for being unable to handle the big stage? Would this have soured fans on going to bowls, preventing VT from becoming one of the better-regarded bowl travelling teams? And worse yet, would this have been a stumbling point from building the program as a whole?
2006 Gator Bowl vs
Louisville
Another Hokie bowl win, though one
with negative consequences. This game
was on New Year’s Day 2006, following the 2005 season.
Throughout 2005, the Hokies were near the top of the polls. Unfortunately, losses to Miami and Florida State near and at the end of the season knocked the Hokies out of BCS bowl contention.
Although not a major bowl, this Gator Bowl was a ranked matchup featuring stars on both teams. One such star for Louisville was Elvis Dumervil – a defender who would go on to spend 12 seasons in the NFL. For the Hokies, much attention was given to Marcus Vick, who had already had a history of personal and legal issues.
As the game approached halftime, Vick intentionally stomped on Dumervil’s leg. The refs did not see it, and so couldn’t penalize it, but the TV sure caught it! Vick would go on to play the rest of the game (a 35-24 win, after a 22-7 4th quarter), but this would be it for his college career.
Following the game, the VT program would discover that Vick had committed more crimes – this time, speeding and driving on a revoked license. With so many issues already on the surface, the Hokies said “enough is enough” and dismissed Vick from the program.
Though Tyrod Taylor would provide plenty of awesomeness as QB from 2007-10, even his own playing situation was hampered with two failed attempts at a redshirt season. And while the Hokies weren’t quite at the decline of the 2012-15 Beamer years, the years that followed 2005 would end up being the key contributors to that eventual decline.
- Had Marcus Vick not committed the stomp, might the driving crimes have been easier to treat with a suspension rather than dismissal? Or was it really a “last chance” situation?
- If there is no stomp, and the Hokies do allow Vick to play in 2006 (even with a game or two suspension), are they able to avoid the losses to Georgia Tech (38-27) and to Boston College (22-3) and contend for a national title?
- With a better succession plan at QB, would things have worked out to where Tyrod Taylor could get his redshirt? How does this affect the run of 10-win seasons that would last through the 2011 season, and do any of the 2006-11 seasons have a deeper run at a national title?
- Could some of the QB misses of the late 00s (Christian Ponder, Tajh Boyd) have been averted, with a different playing timeline for Tech’s QBs?
- Conversely, would there have been NEGATIVE recruiting against Beamer and Tech’s “family friendly” culture for being too soft on Vick? Even without the stomp, the driving crimes would have been YET another issue if he wasn’t dismissed from the program.
2007 home vs Boston College
The 2007 season gets much
attention for all of its upsets, often cited as the greatest season ever. So many #2 teams went down – sometimes #1 and
#2 on the same weekend!
The Eagles would stun the Hokies – and the country – with this win. Even more frustratingly, BC would go on to lose to mediocre Florida State and Maryland teams the following 2 weeks. VT would go on to win the rematch for an ACC title, but with 2 losses, the dreams for a return to the national title game were washed away on that rainy night in Blacksburg.
To this day, this game is perhaps seen as the biggest “one that got away”. Had VT been able to hang on – whether by recovering the onside kick, or doing just a little bit more offensively or defensively – a 1-loss ACC Champ Hokies would have been a great contender to join Ohio State in New Orleans (where the NCG was being held that year).
Better yet, there’s the great debate that never was. Would VT have made it into the NCG as 12-1 ACC Champs, had they held on that night against BC? And what would the “butterfly effects” have been?
- Even with just 1 loss, it was a whopper. 48-7 the second week of the season at LSU. Some like to argue that the human polls would have manipulated their rankings to put as much distance between 1-loss VT and the 2-loss LSU.
- That being said, there’s only so far down the polls could have dropped VT while maintaining their credibility, due to so many other 2-loss teams including some that failed to win their own conference. In reality, the computers already had VT at #1 even with the 2 losses. Had VT only had 1 loss, the computer edge would have been even greater, which would have necessitated even more poll shenanigans.
- Would BC have still seen their slide that followed this thriller? If not, and this game became their “wake up call”, perhaps it’s a matchup of 11-1 teams in the ACC Championship Game with the NCG berth on the line for both teams.
- Had VT made it in the NCG, would they have been able to beat Ohio State? The Buckeyes certainly would have had a lot of talent, but at this point, so did VT. For what it’s worth, Ohio State didn’t play anyone ranked higher than 19th that season (at home against Wisconsin).
- Had VT been seen as a sympathetic omission, would the hunger and buzz have been enough to solidify some recruiting misses that would begin in the late 00s-early 10s (that ultimately proved to be the beginning of the end of the Frank Beamer era)?
- What about the various “butterfly effects” of LSU making the NCG, had the Hokies made it in their place (see my 2007West Virginia vs Pitt post from several years ago)? Would Les Miles have gone to Michigan? Would Rich Rodriguez have stayed at West Virginia and continue to build, or would he have went elsewhere, whether or not it was Michigan (possibly LSU to succeed Miles)?
2015 home vs Ohio State
A year following one of the
all-time greatest Hokie wins, and definitely the biggest when considering
year-end ranking of the opponent. The
2014 Buckeyes team would go on to win the national title in the first year of
the CFP, but suffered a home loss to the Hokies along the way! The Hokies….well…at least we had that game
(7-6 overall, with 2 straight home losses following this monumental win in
Columbus).
The 2015 season started with the Blacksburg leg of this home-and-home. A Prime Time Labor Day night showcase, with fun and activities throughout the weekend (I should know…I was there)! Ohio State was preseason ranked #1, while the Hokies were unranked. The atmosphere was electric!
The game started off a bit sluggish for the Hokies, with the first quarter ending in a 14-0 hole. However, the second quarter would be a thing of beauty. VT would do all the scoring, and entered halftime ahead 17-14. The idea of beating a #1 team for the first time ever was creeping in. And win or lose, there was an air of hope that those 7-6 seasons were behind us.
Frank Beamer would announce his retirement following this season, which ended in an unusual offensive shootout against Tulsa in the Independence Bowl. Thankfully, the Hokies won 55-52 (“Well it was different!” quipped Beamer in the post-game interview).
I still think the injury had a major impact on the season and beyond, whether or not Ohio State comes back to win against a healthy Brewer.
- Had VT gone on to win the game, would they have done a better job handling the success? The next two teams were an FCS team and a Purdue team that would go 2-10. Definitely a step down from 2014, where the Hokies faced a plucky ECU team, and a Top 10-finishing GT team that would also beat Clemson, Georgia, and Mississippi State.
- Win or lose the game against Ohio State, how would the season have gone with a healthy Michael Brewer? Do some of those close losses become wins?
- With a few more wins, and in contention for the Division into November, does Frank Beamer hold on for at least one more season? The 2016 Battle at Bristol was something Beamer had a major hand in arranging, and I have to figure he would have gone on to coach in it if there wasn’t as much noise in the fanbase.
- How does this affect the coaching transition at VT, if Beamer does stay for 2016? Even with the Bristol game, and his 30th season as HC, surely the end was near for his head coaching career.
- Had 2015 saw a bit more firepower and offense-defense balance, would the need for an “offensive” head coach to follow Beamer been as strong? Would there have been a path for Bud Foster to become HC, if the offense wasn’t seen as such a liability?
- Whether it’s Foster or someone else succeeding Beamer after 2016 (or beyond), it’s almost certainly not Justin Fuente (seen as one of 2015’s top names). How does he do in a different environment/situation, and how does VT move on beyond the Beamer years? And how does this affect current HC Brent Pry, who might not have left as Penn State DC for just anyone?
A few games that didn't directly include the Hokies, but certainly had an affect.
- 2005 Miami vs Georgia Tech. Had Miami not been upset by GT 14-10, the Hurricanes would have taken VT's spot in the ACC CG. Without this first appearance and only a losing share of the Division title, does VT still gain the confidence to appear in four of the next six ACC CG's?
- 2007 SEC Championship (Tennessee vs LSU). The Vols put up a fight, but two 4th-quarter interceptions sealed it for the Tigers. Had Tennessee been able to win, would 11-2 ACC Champ VT have been able to shake off non-champion Georgia, 3-loss LSU with the H2H, and the USC and Oklahoma teams for a spot against Ohio State in the NCG?
- 2011 Houston-Southern Miss, or TCU-Boise State. Had either of these games gone the other way, a Non-AQ would have had a BCS spot that season. Without the at-large Sugar Bowl berth, does VT get its first-ever 12-win season in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl against 7-5 Auburn? And win or lose, does this affect VT's trajectory and hunger for improvement in 2012 and beyond?
As I've highlighted, there are certainly some aspects of Hokie history that could be a good bit better, if not for a key thing here or there.
Conversely, there are some key POSITIVE things that could have ended up very different too. It's interesting to think how easy it is to affect so many things by changing just one or two aspects of a game!
Later this summer: season previews, predictions, and questions for the 2023 season.
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