2024 Week 14 Black Friday update

As usual, Black Friday is turning into a near full day of games, capped off with Georgia beating rival GT in 8 OT.  Of course, the only thing at risk for Georgia was their safety net going into the CFP.

Remember, everything here is conference record only.

ACC
Clinched berth:
SMU (7-0) - vs. Cal, 3:30 ESPN2.

Saturday set up:  Miami at Syracuse, 3:30 ESPN.  Miami is win and in, but a loss sends Clemson to Charlotte to face SMU.

Controls destiny:
Miami (6-1) - at Syracuse, 3:30 ESPN.

Needs help:
Clemson (7-1) - done with conference play

SEC
Clinched berth:
Georgia (6-2) - done with regular season
   W:  Kentucky, Auburn, Miss St, Texas, Florida, Tennessee
   L:  Alabama, Ole Miss

Saturday set up:  Texas (6-1) at Texas A&M (5-2), 7:30 ABC - winner faces Georgia in Atlanta.

Controls destiny:
Texas (6-1) - at Texas A&M (5-2), 7:30 ABC.
   W:  Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Florida, Arkansas, Kentucky
   L:  Georgia
Texas A&M (5-2) - vs. Texas (6-1), 7:30 ABC.
   W:  Florida, Arkansas, Missouri, Miss St, LSU
   L:  South Carolina, Auburn

Big Ten
Clinched berth:
Oregon (8-0) - vs. Washington, 7:30 NBC
   W:  UCLA, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan, Maryland, Wisconsin

Saturday set up:
-part 1 - Michigan at Ohio State, noon FOX - OSU is win and in.  Otherwise, continue below.
-part 2 - Maryland at Penn State, 3:30 BTN - PSU is win and in if OSU loses.  Otherwise, continue...
-part 3 - Purdue at Indiana, 7:00 FS1 - Indiana is win and in if the other two lose.
If all three teams lose, Ohio State goes to the title game.

Controls destiny:
Ohio State (7-1)
   W:  Michigan State, Iowa, Nebraska, Penn State, Purdue, Northwestern, Indiana
   L:  Oregon

Needs help:
Penn State (7-1)
   W:  Illinois, UCLA, USC, Wisconsin, Washington, Purdue, Minnesota
   L:  Ohio State

Indiana (7-1)
   W:  UCLA, Maryland, Northwestern, Nebraska, Washington, Michigan State, Michigan
   L:  Ohio State

Big 12
The Big 12 is still a mess, but Colorado helped things out greatly by winning.  Now we know that there will not be an 8-way tie for #1.  Colorado's win also eliminated Texas Tech, TCU, and WVU (all 5-3).

And yet, not a single Big 12 team controls their own destiny.  However, the teams remaining in contention must win on Saturday to have a chance.

I'm relying on info from from 247 Sports for the scenarios.

Colorado (7-2) - regular season complete
   W:  Baylor, UCF, Arizona, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Utah, Oklahoma State
   L:  Kansas State, Kansas
Pathway - loss by BYU + loss by Arizona State and Iowa State OR loss by WVU

Arizona State (6-2) - at Arizona, 3:30 FOX
   W:  Kansas, Utah, Oklahoma State, UCF, Kansas State, BYU
   L:  Texas Tech, Cincy
Pathway - win by BYU, WVU, Kansas, TCU, or Kansas State

Iowa State (6-2) - vs Kansas State, 7:30 FOX
   W:  Houston, Baylor, WVU, UCF, Cincinnati, Utah
   L:  Texas Tech, Kansas
Pathway:  win by BYU, WVU, or Arizona OR wins by Baylor and Cincy

BYU (6-2) - vs. Houston, 10:15 ESPN
   W:  Kansas State, Baylor, Arizona, Oklahoma State, UCF, Utah
   L:  Kansas, Arizona State
Pathway - loss by Iowa State OR Arizona State

Kansas State (5-3) - at Iowa State, 7:30 FOX
   W:  Oklahoma State, Colorado, WVU, Kansas, Cincinnati
   L:  BYU, Houston, Arizona State
Pathway - losses by Arizona State AND BYU, plus other tiebreakers against Baylor.

Baylor (5-3) - vs. Kansas, noon ESPN2
   W:  Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, WVU, Houston
   L:  Colorado, BYU, Iowa State
Pathway - losses by BYU, Arizona State, AND Iowa State, plus other tiebreakers against Kansas State.

Kansas State and Baylor are both only eligible for the #2 seed, and any potential tie will be broken by record against common opponents, which won't be known until all of the games are complete.  Of course, they both are eliminated as soon as a current 6-2 team wins.

Saturday set up:
-Kansas at Baylor, noon ESPN2 - Baylor eliminated with a loss which would help Arizona State, but a win might help Iowa State.

-WVU at Texas Tech, noon FS1 - WVU loss would boost Colorado, but a win would help Arizona State and Iowa State
-Arizona State at Arizona, 3:30 FOX - outcome affects all teams in contention.

-TCU at Cincinnati, 6:00 ESPN+ - Cincy win helps Iowa State, but a TCU win helps Arizona State
-Kansas State at Iowa State, 7:30 FOX - outcome affects all teams in contention.
-Houston at BYU, 10:15 ESPN - outcome affects all teams in contention.

Which conference will be decided first? - If Ohio State wins, then the Big Ten will be set after the noon slot.  Otherwise, it'll be a race between the ACC and Big Ten in the 3:30 slot.

Which conference will be decided last? - No matter how you slice it, it looks like the Big 12 will be the last conference decided.  They might get one participant decided during the afternoon or evening, but seeing how the BYU outcome affects all of the teams in contention, the Big 12 title game most likely won't be set until the early hours of Sunday morning in most time zones.

How many conferences will be set by primetime? - At most 2.  The ACC will definitely be decided in the 3:30 slot, and if OSU or PSU win, the Big Ten will be decided by primetime.