The conference title games are set, and we can turn our focus on the field of 12.
Anything for conference games is conference record only. CFP discussion is about overall record.
ACC Championship Game: SMU (8-0) vs. Clemson (7-1)
These teams have the two best records in the ACC, no tiebreakers needed.
SEC Championship Game: Texas (7-1) vs. Georgia (6-2)
Texas has the best record in the conference. Georgia was tied with Tennessee with the second best record, but had the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Big Ten Championship Game: Oregon (9-0) vs. Penn State (8-1)
Oregon has the best record in the conference. Penn State was tied with Indiana with the second best record. With no head-to-head matchup and the same record against common opponents (both lost to Ohio State), the tiebreaker used was that of winning percentage of their conference opponents. In order words, Penn State played better teams in the Big Ten than Indiana.
Big 12 Championship Game: Arizona State (7-2) vs. Iowa State (7-2)
There was a four way tie at the top of teams with a 7-2 conference record. How did these two get chosen over BYU and Colorado?
Honestly, I don't think anyone really knows for sure.
Of the four teams, only BYU and Arizona State played each other, so that is the only head-to-head tiebreaker in play.
College Football Playoff
First, let's look at the conference title participants.
-Big Ten: Oregon (12-0) vs. Penn State (11-1)
-SEC: Texas (11-1) vs. Georgia (10-2)
-ACC: SMU (11-1) vs. Clemson (9-3)
-Big 12: Arizona State (10-2) vs. Iowa State (10-2)
Clemson is probably the only team in that bunch that has to win the conference title to secure a CFP spot. I don't see how they could slide in at 9-4.
Any of the teams with 11 or 12 wins are virtual locks to the CFP, even with a loss. Obviously, the 10-win teams are definitely in with a win, but a loss probably won't knock them out.
Then we have to look at the fifth conference champion. It's trending to be the winner of the Mountain West championship game - Boise State (11-1) vs. UNLV (10-2). The American might be the mix with 10-1 Army facing off against 9-3 Tulane. (Don't forget that Army plays their final regular season game the following week against Navy.) However, the Mountain West champ is guaranteed to have at least 11 wins. Tulane can only max out at 10-3, while Army would be 11-1 after a conference title, pending the Navy game. Still, both teams are ranked so low that I don't see either one jumping the Mountain West champ.
Other teams with 10 or more wins that are sitting idle due to missing a conference championship game:
-Notre Dame (11-1)
-Indiana (11-1)
-Tennessee (10-2)
-Ohio State (10-2)
-Miami (10-2)
And then there are several 9-3 SEC teams waiting just behind there. Of course, there is the usual great debate about how great the SEC is, and why those teams (especially Alabama) deserve to be in.
I just want to point out that for the most part (until screwing over FSU last year), the first criteria that the CFP committee used during the 4-team era was number of wins. We'll see if they hold to that, or decide to be shills for the SEC.
I think there are 9 teams we can already put in the CFP:
-both Big Ten championship teams
-both SEC championship teams
-SMU - even if they lose the ACCCG, they have a good enough record to take an at-large spot
-Big 12 champ
-Mountain West champ
-Notre Dame
-Indiana
Clemson only gets in if they win the ACC championship. The loser of the Big 12 championship game probably also has a really good chance at 10-3 to stay in the mix.
If it were up to me, I would include the Big 12 championship loser and Tennessee, with the final spot going to Clemson if they win the ACCCG or Ohio State. (But I also have an anti-Miami bias.)
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