2024 CFP predictions/projections

The latest rankings are out, and take into account everything except the conference championship games.

The Power 4 championship games:

Big Ten - #1 Oregon vs. #3 Penn State
SEC - #2 Texas vs. #5 Georgia
ACC - #8 SMU vs. #17 Clemson
Big 12 - #15 Arizona State vs. #16 Iowa State

It looks like the only Group of 5 championship game we have to worry about is the Mountain West featuring #10 Boise State vs. #20 UNLV.  The American championship has #24 Army facing off against an unranked Tulane, so while it's possible that the winner could jump ahead of the Mountain West loser in the polls, they can't overtake the winner.

The Big Ten and SEC are virtually guaranteed the top two seeds.

As ACC champ, SMU would be the #3 seed, while Clemson would only be the #4 at best, but could end up playing in the first round, depending on the outcome of the Mountain West title game.  They would most likely remain behind the Big 12 champ in the rankings.

If Boise State wins the Mountain West, they will certainly get a first round bye - a #4 seed if SMU wins the ACC, but can get to #3 with a Clemson victory.  A victory by UNLV would almost guarantee that the Power 4 champions all get a first round bye.

I think the Big 12 champ only gets a first round bye if UNLV wins the Mountain West.  They could climb as high as the #3 seed if UNLV and Clemson both win.  Unfortunately, I believe that the loser of the game is out of the CFP, since the teams are ranked too low.

Now, on to the at-large teams currently in range...
#4 Notre Dame
#6 Ohio State
#7 Tennessee
#9 Indiana
#11 Alabama
#12 Miami
#13 Ole Miss
#14 South Carolina

Logically, it would be hard for any of the teams not playing championship games to change their rankings relative to each other.  However, the committee is known for completely changing their mind and flipflopping teams who were idle and had done nothing new to influence a decision.

If the higher ranked teams all win the conference title games, then the top 11 teams all get in the CFP, with the Big 12 champ taking the 12th spot.

That pretty much means that any idle team ranked #12 or lower is left out of the CFP.

While all of the championship games will affect the seeding, only two will actually affect the participants of the CFP outside of their own participants - the ACC and Mountain West.

The biggest question I have is what happens to Boise State if they lose the Mountain West title game?  Do they remain ahead of Alabama with a loss?  UNLV is certainly only in the CFP if they win.

All of that said, I believe there are 9 teams locked into the CFP, regardless of this week's outcomes:
#1 Oregon
#2 Texas
#3 Penn State
#4 Notre Dame
#5 Georgia
#6 Ohio State
#7 Tennessee
#8 SMU
#9 Indiana

And then there are two spots taken by championship game winners:
#15/#16 Big 12 champ
#10/#20 Mountain West champ

That leaves one last spot and three possible outcomes based on the ACC and MW games:
-If Clemson wins the ACC, they're in.  (MW outcome does not matter.)
-If SMU and Boise State both win, Alabama gets the last spot.
-If SMU and UNLV win, we'll have to see if a 11-2 Boise State stays ahead of 9-3 Alabama.

For those folks who don't want to see Alabama in the CFP, you're rooting for Clemson and Boise State this weekend.

I can't fairly say if Alabama or Miami should be in contention for that last spot, and I sort of hate both of them.  And I also believe that Miami should only be 9-3 or 8-4 (or worse) if not for the ACC trying to prop them up early in conference play.

Based on the current rankings, we'll only have to call shenanigans if Miami, Ole Miss, or South Carolina end up in the CFP after the championship games.

The breakdown by conference stands at:
Big Ten - 4
SEC - 3 or 4
ACC - 1 or 2
Big 12 - 1
Independent - 1
Mountain West - 1 or 2