We're finally getting some separation at the top of the conferences. Since everyone is playing mostly-conference schedules, we're seeing some historic records where teams are carrying unusually low win percentages this early in the season.
Sunday, October 11, 2020
Sunday, October 4, 2020
2020 Week 5 wrap-up
We are now at the point of the season where we can say things are getting crazy due to what's happening on the field.
Sunday, September 27, 2020
2020 Week 4 wrap-up
The SEC is back, the Big 12 is back in conference play, the Big Ten and Pac-12 will be back soon, and more importantly, Virginia Tech is back and they brought a can of whoop-ass!
Sunday, September 20, 2020
Week 3 Wrap-Up
More conference games, and more conferences. The Big Ten is coming back in October.
One thing I noticed with the ACC's divisionless schedule is that now it's harder to root for or against certain teams. In any other year, I would have been rooting for Syracuse over Pitt, because it would help all of the other Coastal teams. However this year, it's too early to tell which outcome would help the teams I prefer.
Sunday, September 13, 2020
2020 Week 2 wrap up
It's been a while, folks, and we've come back to a strange world. I don't need to rehash how massively screwed up 2020 has been and continues to be as we start the college football season. I will say that I will continue to number the weeks based on the original form of the schedule. Therefore, the games of September 12 were part of week 2.
We've got all new criteria to work around this year as every Power 5 conference changed their schedules. The Big Ten and Pac-12 cancelled (although maybe they'll reconsider?). The SEC ditched non-conference games and went to a 10 game conference schedule (up from 8). The Big 12 is still playing 9 conference games, and only adding one non-conference game during the month of September. The ACC probably has the biggest set of changes, as they increased to 10 conference games (from 8) plus one non-conference game, and ditched their divisions when they added Notre Dame as a full member for this season.
And that's all before we have to worry about cancellations and rescheduling games.
Sunday, December 8, 2019
New Year's Six Bowl Games are set
Not a lot of surprises in the New Year's Six.
Utah dropped out of the projections, and Penn State jumped in.
Utah dropped out of the projections, and Penn State jumped in.
| Peach | 1 seed | 4 seed |
| Week 10 | #1 Ohio State | #7 Oregon |
| Week 11 | #1 LSU | #6 Oregon |
| Week 12 | #1 LSU | #6 Oregon |
| Week 13 | #1 Ohio State | #5 Alabama |
| Week 14 | #1 Ohio State | #5 Utah |
| ACTUAL | #1 LSU | #4 Oklahoma |
| Fiesta | 2 seed | 3 seed |
| Week 10 | #2 LSU | #5 Clemson |
| Week 11 | #2 Ohio State | #3 Clemson |
| Week 12 | #2 Ohio State | #3 Clemson |
| Week 13 | #2 LSU | #3 Clemson |
| Week 14 | #2 LSU | #3 Clemson |
| ACTUAL | #2 Ohio State | #3 Clemson |
| Sugar | SEC | Big 12 |
| Week 10 | #3 Alabama | #9 Oklahoma |
| Week 11 | #4 Georgia | #10 Oklahoma |
| Week 12 | #4 Georgia | #10 Oklahoma |
| Week 13 | #4 Georgia | #7 Oklahoma |
| Week 14 | #4 Georgia | #6 Oklahoma |
| ACTUAL | #5 Georgia | #7 Baylor |
| Rose | Big Ten | Pac-12 |
| Week 10 | #4 Penn State | #8 Utah |
| Week 11 | #8 Minnesota | #7 Utah |
| Week 12 | #8 Penn State | #7 Utah |
| Week 13 | #8 Minnesota | #6 Utah |
| Week 14 | #8 Wisconsin | #13 Oregon |
| ACTUAL | #8 Wisconsin | #6 Oregon |
| Orange | ACC | SEC/B1G/ND |
| Week 10 | #19 Wake Forest | #6 Georgia |
| Week 11 | NR Wake Forest | #5 Alabama |
| Week 12 | NR Virginia Tech | #5 Alabama |
| Week 13 | #24 Virginia Tech | #10 Penn State |
| Week 14 | #23 Virginia | #9 Florida |
| ACTUAL | #24 Virginia | #9 Florida |
| Cotton | G5 | At-large |
| Week 10 | #20 Cincinnati | #10 Florida |
| Week 11 | #17 Cincinnati | #9 Penn State |
| Week 12 | #18 Memphis | #10 Minnesota |
| Week 13 | #18 Memphis | #9 Baylor |
| Week 14 | #17 Memphis | #7 Baylor |
| ACTUAL | #17 Memphis | #10 Penn State |
Final New Year's Six predictions
With the season in the books and the final rankings a few hours out, here's my final predictions for the New Year's Six.
Semifinals (Peach and Fiesta):
-LSU (#1) vs. Oklahoma (#4)
-Ohio State vs. Clemson (2 vs. 3)
Four conference champions means that only the Rose Bowl doesn't need a replacement team for the Pac-12.
Sugar: Georgia (SEC replacement) vs. Baylor (Big 12 replacement)
Rose: Wisconsin (Big Ten replacement) vs. Oregon (Pac-12 champ)
Orange: Virginia (ACC replacement) vs. Florida (highest ranked non-champ/non-replacement out of SEC/Big Ten/ND)
Cotton: Memphis (#17, G5) vs. Utah or Penn State (highest ranked team not already placed)
I have to hedge my bet a little with the at-large spot, because I don't know exactly how far Utah might drop. Although I think the losers from the top 10 this weekend (Utah, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Baylor) end up as #5-8.
Semifinals (Peach and Fiesta):
-LSU (#1) vs. Oklahoma (#4)
-Ohio State vs. Clemson (2 vs. 3)
Four conference champions means that only the Rose Bowl doesn't need a replacement team for the Pac-12.
Sugar: Georgia (SEC replacement) vs. Baylor (Big 12 replacement)
Rose: Wisconsin (Big Ten replacement) vs. Oregon (Pac-12 champ)
Orange: Virginia (ACC replacement) vs. Florida (highest ranked non-champ/non-replacement out of SEC/Big Ten/ND)
Cotton: Memphis (#17, G5) vs. Utah or Penn State (highest ranked team not already placed)
I have to hedge my bet a little with the at-large spot, because I don't know exactly how far Utah might drop. Although I think the losers from the top 10 this weekend (Utah, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Baylor) end up as #5-8.
Wednesday, December 4, 2019
Why uva is going to the Orange Bowl
There's still some group of VT fans (and possibly Wake Forest fans) who are holding on to hope that #23 UVA will drop out of the rankings after getting blown out by Clemson on Saturday. By doing so, that will open up the ACC slot in the Orange Bowl to whichever conference member the bowl wants to invite.
I say this as a diehard Virginia Tech fan that hates everything about UVA - Give up on the Orange Bowl, Hokies.
Historically, the committee has not horribly punished teams for losing their conference championship games. Sure, teams may drop a spot or two, but there hasn't been a drastic drop for most teams. Probably the biggest championship game loss by a ranked team in the CFP era was 2018 Northwestern losing to Ohio State by a score of 45-24. They only dropped one spot in the rankings.
But there are a couple of very simple reasons why UVA will not drop out of the rankings.
First, there must be 25 teams in the top 25. If one falls out, another must take their place. All of the unranked Power 5 teams are idle during championship weekend. So, why would the committee suddenly decide that a team who wasn't worthy of the top 25 last week is suddenly worthy next week when that team didn't play?
More importantly, it's a matter of time. For all of the other rankings, the committee can think about the games on Sunday, meet on Monday and Tuesday, and release the rankings on Tuesday night. For the final rankings, they watch the championship games together and then have to come up with the final rankings by noon on Sunday, barely 12 hours after all of the games are done.
The simplest solution for the committee is to drop UVA to #24 or #25, move Navy and Oklahoma State up a spot, and then turn their attention to debate over who the fourth team in the semi-finals should be, which is their primary mission. Why waste time debating yet another team that isn't on their list going into this weekend?
Finally, it's a matter of protecting the interest of their stakeholders. Dropping UVA out of the rankings can cause harm to the Orange Bowl, which is one of the New Year's Six bowls that the committee is responsible for arranging. There's already enough ranked teams from the other conferences to fill the contracted New Year's Six bowl slots, and the only at-large spot will have to be filled by a top 10 team. Therefore, a #25 ranking has absolutely no bearing on the NY6 bowls. It doesn't even affect the other bowls.
I say this as a diehard Virginia Tech fan that hates everything about UVA - Give up on the Orange Bowl, Hokies.
Historically, the committee has not horribly punished teams for losing their conference championship games. Sure, teams may drop a spot or two, but there hasn't been a drastic drop for most teams. Probably the biggest championship game loss by a ranked team in the CFP era was 2018 Northwestern losing to Ohio State by a score of 45-24. They only dropped one spot in the rankings.
But there are a couple of very simple reasons why UVA will not drop out of the rankings.
First, there must be 25 teams in the top 25. If one falls out, another must take their place. All of the unranked Power 5 teams are idle during championship weekend. So, why would the committee suddenly decide that a team who wasn't worthy of the top 25 last week is suddenly worthy next week when that team didn't play?
More importantly, it's a matter of time. For all of the other rankings, the committee can think about the games on Sunday, meet on Monday and Tuesday, and release the rankings on Tuesday night. For the final rankings, they watch the championship games together and then have to come up with the final rankings by noon on Sunday, barely 12 hours after all of the games are done.
The simplest solution for the committee is to drop UVA to #24 or #25, move Navy and Oklahoma State up a spot, and then turn their attention to debate over who the fourth team in the semi-finals should be, which is their primary mission. Why waste time debating yet another team that isn't on their list going into this weekend?
Finally, it's a matter of protecting the interest of their stakeholders. Dropping UVA out of the rankings can cause harm to the Orange Bowl, which is one of the New Year's Six bowls that the committee is responsible for arranging. There's already enough ranked teams from the other conferences to fill the contracted New Year's Six bowl slots, and the only at-large spot will have to be filled by a top 10 team. Therefore, a #25 ranking has absolutely no bearing on the NY6 bowls. It doesn't even affect the other bowls.
Tuesday, December 3, 2019
New Year's Six projections - Championship Week
Alabama isn't in the CFP this year, and they're most likely not in the New Year's Six!
There's still a lot in flux at the top of the rankings.
Semifinals (Peach and Fiesta):
-LSU (#2) vs. Clemson (#3)
-Ohio State (#1) vs. Utah (#5)
This arrangement will actually give us four conference champions, and the only bowl that would not need a replacement would be the Sugar for the Big 12.
Sugar: Georgia (#4, SEC replacement) vs. Oklahoma (#6, Big 12 projected champ)
Rose: Wisconsin (#8, Big Ten replacement) vs. Oregon (#13, Pac-12 replacement)
Orange: Virginia (#23, ACC replacement) vs. Florida (#9, highest ranked non-champ/non-replacement out of SEC/Big Ten/ND)
Cotton: Memphis (#17, G5) vs. Baylor (#7, highest ranked team not already placed)
These are actually some of the weaker projections, as some of those teams will likely move around as they play each other. More than likely, a Wisconsin loss would drop them below Penn State, sending PSU to the Rose Bowl. Also, a Baylor loss would drop them out of range for the at-large.
Also, an Oregon win over Utah would keep them in the Rose Bowl, but push Utah down (possibly to the Cotton) and pull the Big 12 champ into the semi-finals, likely putting the loser of the game into the Sugar Bowl.
And now, the week to week comparisons:
There's still a lot in flux at the top of the rankings.
Semifinals (Peach and Fiesta):
-LSU (#2) vs. Clemson (#3)
-Ohio State (#1) vs. Utah (#5)
This arrangement will actually give us four conference champions, and the only bowl that would not need a replacement would be the Sugar for the Big 12.
Sugar: Georgia (#4, SEC replacement) vs. Oklahoma (#6, Big 12 projected champ)
Rose: Wisconsin (#8, Big Ten replacement) vs. Oregon (#13, Pac-12 replacement)
Orange: Virginia (#23, ACC replacement) vs. Florida (#9, highest ranked non-champ/non-replacement out of SEC/Big Ten/ND)
Cotton: Memphis (#17, G5) vs. Baylor (#7, highest ranked team not already placed)
These are actually some of the weaker projections, as some of those teams will likely move around as they play each other. More than likely, a Wisconsin loss would drop them below Penn State, sending PSU to the Rose Bowl. Also, a Baylor loss would drop them out of range for the at-large.
Also, an Oregon win over Utah would keep them in the Rose Bowl, but push Utah down (possibly to the Cotton) and pull the Big 12 champ into the semi-finals, likely putting the loser of the game into the Sugar Bowl.
And now, the week to week comparisons:
| Semi-final #1 | 1 seed | 4 seed |
| Week 10 | #1 Ohio State | #7 Oregon |
| Week 11 | #1 LSU | #6 Oregon |
| Week 12 | #1 LSU | #6 Oregon |
| Week 13 | #1 Ohio State | #5 Alabama |
| Week 14 | #1 Ohio State | #5 Utah |
| Semi-final #2 | 2 seed | 3 seed |
| Week 10 | #2 LSU | #5 Clemson |
| Week 11 | #2 Ohio State | #3 Clemson |
| Week 12 | #2 Ohio State | #3 Clemson |
| Week 13 | #2 LSU | #3 Clemson |
| Week 14 | #2 LSU | #3 Clemson |
| Sugar | SEC | Big 12 |
| Week 10 | #3 Alabama | #9 Oklahoma |
| Week 11 | #4 Georgia | #10 Oklahoma |
| Week 12 | #4 Georgia | #10 Oklahoma |
| Week 13 | #4 Georgia | #7 Oklahoma |
| Week 14 | #4 Georgia | #6 Oklahoma |
| Rose | Big Ten | Pac-12 |
| Week 10 | #4 Penn State | #8 Utah |
| Week 11 | #8 Minnesota | #7 Utah |
| Week 12 | #8 Penn State | #7 Utah |
| Week 13 | #8 Minnesota | #6 Utah |
| Week 14 | #8 Wisconsin | #13 Oregon |
| Orange | ACC | SEC/B1G/ND |
| Week 10 | #19 Wake Forest | #6 Georgia |
| Week 11 | NR Wake Forest | #5 Alabama |
| Week 12 | NR Virginia Tech | #5 Alabama |
| Week 13 | #24 Virginia Tech | #10 Penn State |
| Week 14 | #23 Virginia | #9 Florida |
| Cotton | G5 | At-large |
| Week 10 | #20 Cincinnati | #10 Florida |
| Week 11 | #17 Cincinnati | #9 Penn State |
| Week 12 | #18 Memphis | #10 Minnesota |
| Week 13 | #18 Memphis | #9 Baylor |
| Week 14 | #17 Memphis | #7 Baylor |
Alabama, Virginia Tech, and Penn State dropped out of projections, replaced by Oregon, UVA, and Wisconsin.
Sunday, December 1, 2019
Week 14 update - conference championships set
ACC Championship: Clemson Tigers (8-0) vs. UVA Cavaliers (6-2)
Both clinched with the best record in their division, and I can't believe I typed that.
SEC Championship: Georgia Bulldogs (7-1) vs. LSU Tigers (8-0)
Both teams clinched with the best record in their division.
Big Ten Championship: Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (7-2)
Ohio State clinched with the best record in the division. Wisconsin clinched with the head-to-head tiebreaker over Minnesota. Ohio State did beat Wisconsin earlier in the season.
Pac-12 Championship: Oregon Ducks (8-1) vs. Utah Utes (8-1)
Both teams clinched with the best record in their division.
Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma Sooners (8-1) vs. Baylor Bears (8-1)
These are the teams with the two best records in the conference. Oklahoma won the first meeting.
Both clinched with the best record in their division, and I can't believe I typed that.
SEC Championship: Georgia Bulldogs (7-1) vs. LSU Tigers (8-0)
Both teams clinched with the best record in their division.
Big Ten Championship: Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (7-2)
Ohio State clinched with the best record in the division. Wisconsin clinched with the head-to-head tiebreaker over Minnesota. Ohio State did beat Wisconsin earlier in the season.
Pac-12 Championship: Oregon Ducks (8-1) vs. Utah Utes (8-1)
Both teams clinched with the best record in their division.
Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma Sooners (8-1) vs. Baylor Bears (8-1)
These are the teams with the two best records in the conference. Oklahoma won the first meeting.
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