heading into week 11...

We're at the point of the season where conference races are starting to tighten up and get a little clearer.


Or we should be, but there are a few conferences that just don't like to play it easy.

But we can start sorting teams based on their bowl eligibility.

ACC
Coastal
eligible:  Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, UVA, UNC
one win away:  Miami
one loss away from losing it:  Duke
Atlantic
eligible:  Florida State, Clemson
one win away:  Wake Forest, NC State
going nowhere:  Maryland, Boston College

SEC
East
eligible: South Carolina, Georgia
one win away:  Florida
not quite in, not quite out:  Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
West
eligible: Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, Alabama
in the middle:  Mississippi State
out:  Mississippi

Big Ten
Legends
eligible:  Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska
in the middle:  Northwestern
out:  Minnesota
Leaders
eligible:  Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio State, Penn State
could go either way:  Purdue (two wins or two losses to determine)
out:  Indiana

Pac-12
North
eligible:  Oregon, Washington, Stanford
one win away:  California
one loss away:  Washington State
out:  Oregon State
South
eligible: Arizona State
one win away:  Utah, UCLA
out: Arizona, Colorado
banned:  USC

Big 12
eligible:  Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State
one win away:  Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Baylor, Iowa State
in the middle:  Missouri
out:  Kansas

Big East
eligible:  West Virginia, Cincinnati, Rutgers
one win away:  Syracuse, Louisville
stuck in the middle:  UConn, Pitt, South Florida

I'm not going to go into the non-AQ conferences, because that's just too much, and most of the work in determining the status of these teams was to determine the conference races, which we will get into now.

We've got four categories of teams:
-Controls destiny.
-In contention.  (Within a game of the leader, but needs help.)
-Might have a slight chance.  (The team needs a lot of help and some strange tie breakers.)
-Out.  Right now, this is mainly determined by something I have dubbed the magic number.

The magic number is determined by the number of conference losses the leader has plus the number of conference games left.  Any team with more losses than that number is automatically out.  For instance, Clemson has 1 loss and 2 conference games left, so they set the magic number for the Atlantic division of the ACC at 3.  Maryland and Boston College both have 5 losses, so they are automatically out.

A lot of teams listed below as "might have a slight chance" are probably out, but it's too early in the season to worry about too many what-ifs.  Most of those teams will probably take care of themselves with a loss in the next two weeks anyway.

ACC
Coastal
magic number:  4 (VT)
controls destiny:  Virginia Tech, UVA
in contention: Georgia Tech
maybe: Miami
out: UNC, Duke
Atlantic
magic number:  3 (Clemson)
controls destiny: Clemson, Wake Forest
in contention: Florida State
maybe: NC State
out: Maryland, Boston College

The Clemson/Wake Forest game on November 12 is vital.  Clemson can clench the division with a win.  If Wake Forest wins, it leaves it open for both teams, and gives FSU an outside shot.

SEC
East
magic number:  3 (UGA and SC)
controls destiny: Georgia
in contention: South Carolina
out:  Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt
West
magic number:  2 (LSU)
controls destiny: LSU, Arkansas
in contention: Alabama
maybe:  Auburn
out:  Mississippi, Mississippi State

Big Ten
Legends
magic number:  4 (Mich. St.)
controls destiny: Michigan State, Iowa
in contention: Michigan, Nebraska
maybe: Northwestern
out:  Minnesota
Leaders
magic number:  3 (Penn State)
controls destiny: Penn State
in contention: Ohio State, Wisconsin
maybe: Purdue
out: Indiana

Indiana is a fine example of why the Big Ten needs new, generic division titles.  What are they a leader of, the race down the Toilet Bowl?

Pac-12
North
magic number:  3 (Stanford, Oregon)
controls destiny: Stanford, Oregon
in contention: Washington
out: Oregon State, Wash St, Cal
South
magic number:  5 (UCLA, Az State)
controls destiny: UCLA
in contention: Arizona State
maybe: Utah
out: Arizona, Colorado, USC

Big 12
magic number:  3 (Ok. St.)
controls destiny: Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
in contention: Baylor
maybe: Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State
out: Texas Tech, Missouri, Kansas, Iowa State

Big East
magic number:  4 (Cinci)
controls destiny: Cincinnati
and everyone else still has a shot...sorry, I can't care enough to sort them at this point.

Still a lot to sort, but this week should clear things up more.