Monday, March 12, 2012

Comparing the conferences, team by team

How do the 11 FBS conferences stack up against each other?  Let's compare them, team by team. 


To even things out, we're ranking teams by overall records, regardless of divisions or conference championship game winners.  If there are multiple teams with the same record, I used a combination of conference record, head-to-head, or rankings if possible to pick one over the other.  In some cases, I just picked one.

Conference championship games are included in both the overall and conference records for this study.

For the top few teams, I'll be listing the conferences that they played in non-conference games.  I'm just listing any FCS team as FCS regardless of conference.  Conferences in italics indicate a loss.

#1
SEC:  LSU (13-0, 9-0) [Pac-12, FCS, Big East, Sun Belt]
ACC:  Virginia Tech (11-2, 7-2) [FCS, 2 CUSA, Sun Belt]
Big Ten:  Wisconsin (11-2, 7-2) [MW, Pac-12, MAC, FCS]
Pac-12:  Oregon (11-2, 9-1) [SEC, WAC, FCS]
C-USA: Houston (12-1, 8-1)  [Pac-12, Sun Belt, WAC, FCS]
MAC: Northern Illinois (10-3, 7-1) [Army, Big 12, Big Ten, FCS]
Big 12:  Oklahoma State (11-1, 8-1) [Sun Belt, Pac-12, CUSA]
Sun Belt:  Arkansas State (10-2, 8-0) [Big Ten, CUSA, ACC, FCS]
Big East:  West Virginia (9-3, 5-3) [CUSA, FCS, ACC, SEC, MAC]
MW:  Boise State (11-1, 6-1) [SEC, MAC, CUSA, 2 WAC]
WAC:  Louisana Tech (8-4, 6-1) [2 CUSA, FCS, SEC, WAC]

#2
SEC: Alabama (11-1, 7-1)
ACC:   Clemson (10-3, 7-2)
Big Ten:  Michigan State (10-3, 7-2)
Pac-12:  Stanford (11-1, 8-1)
C-USA: Southern Miss (11-2, 6-2)
MAC: Ohio (9-4, 6-2)
Big 12: Kansas State (10-2, 7-2)
Sun Belt: Louisana-Lafayette (8-4, 6-2)
Big East:  Cincinnati (9-3, 5-2)
MW:  TCU (10-2, 7-0)
WAC:  Utah State (7-5, 5-2)

#3
SEC: Georgia (10-3, 7-2)
ACC: Virginia (8-4, 5-3)
Big Ten:  Michigan (10-2, 6-2)
Pac-12:  USC (10-2, 7-2)
C-USA: Tulsa (8-4, 7-1)
MAC: Toledo (8-4, 7-1)
Big 12: Baylor (9-3, 6-3)
Sun Belt:  FIU (8-4, 5-3)
Big East:  Rutgers (8-4, 4-3)
MW:  Wyoming (8-4, 5-2)
WAC:  Nevada (7-5, 5-2)

#4
SEC: Arkansas (10-2, 6-2)
ACC: Florida State (8-4, 5-3)
Big Ten:  Penn State (9-3, 6-2)
Pac-12:  Washington (7-5, 5-4)
C-USA:   Southern Methodist (7-5, 3-3)
MAC:  Temple (8-4, 5-3)
Big 12: Oklahoma (9-3, 6-3)
Sun Belt:  Western Kentucky (7-5, 7-1)
Big East:  Louisville (7-5, 5-2)
MW:  San Diego State (8-4, 4-3)
WAC:  Hawaii (6-7, 3-4)

#5
SEC: South Carolina (10-2, 6-2)
ACC: Georgia Tech (8-4, 5-3)
Big Ten:  Nebraska (9-3, 5-3)
Pac-12:  California (7-5, 4-5)
C-USA: Marshall (6-6, 5-3)
MAC: Western Michigan (7-5, 5-3)
Big 12:   Missouri (7-5, 5-4)
Sun Belt:  North Texas (5-7, 4-4)
Big East:  Pittsburgh (6-6, 4-3)
MW:  Air Force (7-5, 3-4)
WAC:  San Jose State (5-7, 3-4)

#6
SEC: Auburn (7-5, 4-4)
ACC: NC State (7-5, 4-4)
Big Ten:  Iowa (7-5, 4-4)
Pac-12:  Utah (7-5, 4-5)
C-USA: East Carolina (5-7, 4-4)
MAC: Ball State (6-6, 4-4)
Big 12: Texas (7-5, 4-5)
Sun Belt:  Louisiana-Monroe (4-8, 3-5)
Big East:  Connecticut (5-7, 3-4)
MW:  Colorado State (3-9, 1-6)
WAC:  Fresno State (4-9, 3-4)

#7
SEC: Florida (6-6, 3-5)
ACC:  North Carolina (7-5, 3-5)
Big Ten:  Purdue (6-6, 4-4)
Pac-12:  UCLA (6-7, 5-5)
C-USA:  UCF (5-7, 3-5)
MAC: Eastern Michigan (6-6, 4-4)
Big 12: Texas A&M (6-6, 4-5)
Sun Belt:  Troy (3-9, 2-6)
Big East:  South Florida (5-7, 1-6)
MW:  UNLV (2-10, 1-6)
WAC:  New Mexico State (4-9, 2-5)

#8
SEC: Vanderbilt (6-6, 2-6)
ACC: Wake Forest (6-6, 5-3)
Big Ten:  Ohio State (6-6, 3-5)
Pac-12:  Arizona State (6-6, 4-5)
C-USA: UTEP (5-7, 2-6)
MAC: Kent State (5-7, 4-4)
Big 12:   Iowa State (6-6, 3-6)
Sun Belt:  Middle Tennessee (2-10, 1-7)
Big East:  Syracuse (5-7, 1-6)
MW: New Mexico (1-11, 1-6)
WAC:  Idaho (2-10, 1-6)

#9
SEC: Mississippi State (6-6, 2-6)
ACC:  Miami (6-6, 3-5)
Big Ten:  Northwestern (6-6, 3-5)
Pac-12:  Washington State (4-8, 2-7)
C-USA:  Rice (4-8, 3-5)
MAC: Bowling Green (5-7, 3-5)
Big 12: Texas Tech (5-7, 2-7)
Sun Belt: Florida Atlantic (1-11, 0-8)
Big East, MW, WAC: no teams left

#10
SEC: Kentucky (5-7, 2-6)
ACC: Boston College (4-8, 3-5)
Big Ten:  Illinois (6-6, 2-6)
Pac-12:  Arizona (4-8, 2-7)
C-USA: UAB (3-9, 3-5)
MAC: Miami of Ohio (4-8, 3-5)
Big 12: Kansas (2-10, 0-9)
Sun Belt, Big East, MW, WAC: no teams left

#11
SEC: Tennessee (5-7, 1-7)
ACC:   Duke (3-9, 1-7)
Big Ten:  Minnesota (3-9, 2-6)
Pac-12:  Oregon State (3-9, 3-6)
C-USA: Memphis (2-10, 1-7)
MAC:  Buffalo (3-9, 2-6)
Big 12, Sun Belt, Big East, MW, WAC: no teams left

#12
SEC: Ole Miss (2-10, 0-8)
ACC:  Maryland (2-10, 1-7)
Big Ten:  Indiana (1-11, 0-8)
Pac-12:  Colorado (3-10, 2-7)
C-USA:  Tulane (2-11, 1-7)
MAC: Central Michigan (3-9, 2-6)
Big 12, Sun Belt, Big East, MW, WAC: no teams left

#13
MAC:  Akron (1-11, 0-8)
Only one team can be ranked 13th in their conference right now.  I'd tell that MAC team to not feel bad, because they'll soon be joined by the SEC and ACC, but it looks like the MAC is going back down to 12 themselves.
Let's start comparing the numbers.  First, we'll start with the benchmark of 10 or more wins.

Teams with 10 or more wins:
SEC:  5
ACC:  2*
Big Ten:  3
Pac-12:  3
C-USA: 2
MAC:  1*
Big 12:  2
Sun Belt:  1
Big East:  0
MW:  2
WAC:  0

*(ACC's Clemson and the MAC team got their 10th win in the conference championship game.  In Clemson's case, they got it by beating the same team twice.)

On the surface there, it appears that the SEC is showing dominance.  But let's look at the next statistic.

Some conferences are fairly well spread out, with the win totals of individual teams almost being inverse to their ranking. Some conferences, though, have a big gap somewhere in the middle.

Below are the largest gaps in the middle of each conferences rankings.

SEC: 3 games, between #5-6 and again between #11-12
ACC: 2 games, between #3-4 (due to conference championship) and again between #9-10
Big Ten: 3 games, between #10-12
Pac-12: 3 games, between #3-4
C-USA: 3 games, between #2-3 (due to conference championship)
MAC: 2 games, between #12-13
Big 12: 3 games, between #9-10
Sun Belt: 2 games, between #1-2, and again between #4-5
Big East: 1 game, several times
MW: 4 games, between #5-6
WAC: 2 games, between #7-8

That three game gap for the SEC is the dropoff from their 10-win teams and their non-10-win teams.  It's the same case in the Pac-12.  In those conferences, there is a sizeable gap between their top, middle, and bottom.  The conferences with the gap the farthest down the list keep their teams relatively close together.  And then there's the Big East, which only has a four game difference from between the top and bottom teams.

Highest ranked team with a losing record:
SEC:  10th of 12
ACC:  10th of 12
Big Ten:  11th of 12
Pac-12:  7th of 12
C-USA: 6th of 12
MAC:  8th of 13
Big 12:  9th of 10
Sun Belt:  5th of 9
Big East:  6th of 8
MW:  6th of 8
WAC:  4th of 8

What does all of this prove?  Does it say one conference is better than the other?  Not necessarily.  It probably shows which conferences are more competitive.  For instance, the SEC has 5 teams with 10 or more wins, and 6 teams sitting at .500 or below.  Not a lot of middle ground there, which sounds like a lot of cannon fodder for those teams at the top.

What do we as fans want?  What do we perceive as a strong conference?  Is it a conference with 2 or 3 dominant teams with a lot of cannon fodder and no middle ground?  Or is it a conference that is a little more even, but probably would be unable to produce an undefeated team at the top?

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