Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Not all playoff ideas are created equal

One of the ESPN blogs ran an interesting article, where fans wrote in with their playoff ideas.

Now I realize that this opinion could sound hypocritical coming from a fan running a blog, but some people just don't have enough basic knowledge about how things work to propose a playoff idea.


When Tony and I developed our 8 team playoff idea, we tried to keep it somewhat within the established parameters of the BCS.  Currently, I am more in support of a 12 or 16 team playoff, similar to the one proposed in "Death to the BCS".  Both models include all conference champions and wildcards.  There is also a precedent for a 12 team playoff as seen in the NFL.

Now, a lot of the ideas presented in the post make sense, but I might have a few quibbles over the details at the end.  Those are logistical questions that can be answered once a system is actually established.

I don't like the idea of a team losing in the playoffs going to a bowl game.  Yes, that would turn the bowl games into consolation prizes for teams not in the playoffs, but that is what they are currently anyway.

There is one 12 team proposal in that article that allows the top seed to have a bye during the first two rounds, and the second seed to have a first round bye.  Allow me to demonstrate what that playoff would look like.  For clarity purposes, we are going to assume that all top seeded teams win.

Round 1: (five games)
3 vs. 12
4 vs. 11
5 vs. 10
6 vs. 9
7 vs. 8
byes:  1 and 2

Round 2:  (three games)
2 vs. 7
3 vs. 4
5 vs. 6
bye: 1

Round 3:  (two games)
1 vs. 5
2 vs. 3

And finally a championship.

While that is the same number of overall games as a traditional 12 team model (with the top four getting a first round bye), it moves one game from round two into round one.  The fan calls the two round bye a reward for the top team, but I think it's a disadvantage to everyone involved.  First, the top seed only has to play two games to become champion.  Second, it gives them too much time off between games, and could seriously disrupt their momentum.  Just look at how many National Championship games in recent years have not been good examples of the teams playing because they had a 6 week break.

Then there is the 8 superconference idea, and those champions go to the playoffs.  It also eliminates nonconference games.  I'm sorry, there is just too much wrong with that one.  Conferences are already hitting their tipping point with 14-16 teams.  And while most schools seem to be afraid of scheduling big opponents on a regular basis, the idea of an occasional one-off or home-and-home with another "name" team brings in money on the novelty factor.

The joker from Connecticut wants to eliminate conference championship games.  That's easy to say if you're rooting for UConn in the Big East with only 8 teams and no championship game.  But we've already seen plenty of controversy, or even near-controversy, when conferences have to pick champions without a title game based on some arbitrary decision.  In fact, the SEC West was one game away from having a 3 way tie in the division that would have resulted in an obscene number of tiebreakers to determine which team would travel to Atlanta.

That just gets through the main article.  The ideas in the comments section are even more outrageous.

One commenter has an idea of 2 preseason non-conference games, followed by a full conference slate.  Conferences would determine champions by mid-November, leading into playoffs.  Everyone else goes into a pool for bowls, and then there are two postseason non-conference games to help with bowl eligibility.

Stop right there.  Schools and conferences are scrambling in February to get "last minute" schedule modifications completed.  Do you really think they are going to deal with any sort of hassle to schedule two November games that they can't even start planning until Halloween?  Especially when both of those games are likely to fall during Thanksgiving break? 

I know some schools only make any money off of the final game of the season because it's against their rival, who's buying all of the tickets.  If it wasn't for rivalries, it would be hard to get people to travel after Thanksgiving for a game.

So, just remember, if you're trying to come up with a playoff idea - keep it within established parameters.  If you feel like something has to change, keep the change small and simple, or make it a change that will make the right people a lot of money.

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