"Butterfly Effect" Games in College Football, Part 2 of 3

As promised, my three-part series continues with another game that seriously caused some ripples throughout college football.



2007 Pittsburgh at West Virginia
The stage was set for the 100th Backyard Brawl. Top 2 West Virginia against losing-record Pittsburgh. A Mountaineer win would mean a berth in the BCS Championship Game against either Missouri or Ohio State. West Virginia had already clinched the Big East's BCS bowl berth, but a packed house in Morgantown were anticipating making THE game with a win over its major rival.

However, it was not to be. Despite being a 28-point favorite, with the intensity and motivation of Mountaineer Field, the Panthers pulled off the upset to derail West Virginia's National Championship hopes. Missouri lost that evening as well - allowing for Ohio State and LSU to meet up for the BCS Championship (which ultimately went to Les Miles and his LSU squad).

On top of the heartbreaking loss, West Virginia saw head coach Rich Rodriguez leave for Michigan in the following days. Rich Rod would see limited success with Wolverines, ultimately being fired after his 3rd season. Interestingly, toward the end of the 2007 season, Les Miles was the prime target to replace Lloyd Carr at Michigan. But as the craziness of that season came to a close on that final weekend, Les ultimately decided to stay with the Tigers and win a National Championship (and compete for another).

For Pittsburgh, a sense of optimism came about. Dave Wannstedt led the Panthers to ranked seasons in 2008 and 2009, including a fantastic "de facto" championship game against Cincinnati in 2009 (though the Bearcats would end up winning that one in dramatic fashion). That optimism was short lived, and Dave failed to make it past the 2010 season before Pitt found the need to change things once again (and had some trouble making that change - leading to a bit of a carousel for a couple years there).


Net Effects:
- Cost West Virginia a shot at its first National Championship;

- LSU gets the chance to win the Title (which they did)

- With no Title to play for, Rich Rod leaves for Michigan somewhat guilt-free...though maybe not regret-free in 2014 (though things seem to be looking somewhat better at Arizona)

- Pittsburgh sees a brief period of success under Wannstedt, but the success fades at a very inopportune time for Pitt


Questions to consider:
- Assuming Rich Rod stays at West Virginia to pursue a championship, does Les Miles take the Michigan job?

- Possibly without Les Miles (and definitely without the 2007 National Championship), does LSU still maintain their same level of success into the 2010s?

- Whomever takes the Michigan head coaching job, how do they perform? Are they still the head Wolverine in 2014, and are Ohio State and Michigan State still 5-1 each against Michigan in the last 6 years?

- Similarly, who is now the head coach at Arizona, with Rich Rod's career going in a different direction?  And what is the state of the Wildcat program in 2014?

- Do the Mountaineers win their first National Championship, and breed future success from there? Enough so to where they're invited to a "Power 5" conference sooner?

- With Rich Rod still at West Virginia, does Brian Kelly still become a big winner at Cincinnati (big enough to get the attention of Notre Dame)?

- Does Pittsburgh's coaching changes occur sooner, possibly eliminating the unfortunate carousel and allowing the Pittsburgh program to rebound more quickly?


Many questions indeed! And of course, I'm sure I could come up with even more if I continued this train of thought. By the way, I cite December 1, 2007 as a date of "cosmic significance" in the world of college football. Below is an article that digs into the long-lasting impacts (and potential impacts) of this one game.

http://web.archive.org/web/20160505012056/http://aarontorres-sports.com/articles/college-football/the-what-if-game-how-one-loss-changed-michigan-west-virginia-and-ohio-state-forever.html