Thursday, July 31, 2014

"Butterfly Effect" Games in College Football, Part 3 of 3

As we get ready to step into August - and thus, the beginning of the 2014 college football season - I'd like to wrap up this short series of games that have created ripples through college football space/time.




This one requires a bit more speculation than my other two examples, since the effects of this game weren't quite as immediate.  It's also a bit "under the radar", but a fun one nonetheless.

2010 Arizona at Stanford
In 2010, Oregon was the clear leader in the PAC-10 (one year away from becoming the PAC-12), ultimately headed to the BCS Championship Game against Auburn. When this game in Stanford hit, both the Wildcats and the Cardinal were 7-1 overall (4-1 PAC-10). Future NFL QB's Andrew Luck and Nick Foles were up against each other, and a high-flying shootout was expected. With Oregon doing as well as they did, there was hope that the winner of this game would go on to a BCS Bowl as an 11-1 team.

What looked to be an evenly-matched Top 15 game turned out to be a Stanford domination. The Cardinal never trailed, and Jim Harbaugh's crew ended up winning 42-17. Furthermore, Stanford would go on to win the remainder of its games, finishing the season at #4 and gaining that automatic BCS berth (which they made the most of by destroying my beloved ACC Champion Hokies 40-12 in the Orange Bowl).

Arizona, meanwhile, failed to win another game that season. In fact, the Wildcats would go on a 10-game losing streak against FBS teams (with a win over an FCS team to begin 2011) and ultimately see the dismissal of head coach Mike Stoops. Prior to this Stanford game, Arizona had won 5 straight road games, including impressive wins over USC and Toledo. But this game seemed to kill the positive vibes that had resonated throughout Tuscon since 2009's near-win against Oregon to gain late season control of its Rose Bowl destiny.

Let's play some "what if" here, and assume that the game goes Arizona's way. Obviously, with such a dominant score by Stanford, it's not like one play would have changed everything. But suppose something good happens early for Arizona...such as a Pick-6, or an early score or two that allows the Wildcats to set the tone. This seems to be one of those cases where although a whole bunch didn't change right after this game, a lot could have been very different had the Wildcats won.

Since it's impossible to say a whole bunch of things "would" have definitely happened (and not that I actually believe all of these things would have), I'll post some questions about how things might be different for Stanford and Arizona...and Oklahoma...and Clemson...and in the NFL...had Arizona emerged victorious.


Questions to Consider (assuming Arizona beats Stanford):

- Does Stanford tank at the end of the 2010 season, similar to how Arizona did?

- Although respectable, is a couple of 7 or 8-win seasons (assuming a Stanford slump in 2010 post-Arizona) good enough for the San Francisco 49ers to pick up Jim Harbaugh as its Super Bowl near-winning coach? If not, who is the Head 49er, and would they have even sniffed the Playoffs?

- Without the high ranking and BCS Bowl contention of late 2010 season...and the Cardinal's fantastic Orange Bowl showing, would Andrew Luck have gotten the chance to shine and become a #1 overall draft pick? Could RGIII be with the Indianapolis Colts right now...and would the Redskins have had 1st round draft picks in 2013 and 2014?

- Assuming a loss to Oregon, but a win against its remaining opponents, is a 10-2 Arizona good enough for a BCS Bowl? If so, might we have seen the Orange Bowl take UConn, leaving the Fiesta Bowl for a battle of the Stoops brothers (Oklahoma vs Arizona).

- With Mike Stoops still at Arizona, where does former W.V. and Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez find a job? And is he doing an Arizona-like job of moving that program toward respectability?

- Without Mike Stoops's return to Oklahoma, and thus the squeezing out of Brent Venables, who does Clemson get for a Defensive Coordinator after 2011? Do the Tigers still become back-to-back winners of 11 games the past 2 years with big wins over LSU, Georgia, and Ohio State?

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