After a pair of posts focusing on Power Conference teams switching in and out of bowl eligibility, I thought I'd show some love to the Group of Five teams. With a spot in the New Year's Six guaranteed each year (unlike the BCS, which had a conditional spot), the race among the G5 conferences is more interesting than ever!
Here are a few teams from each G5 conference that could find themselves in contention for a 2015-16 NY6 Bowl:
American
Cincinnati (champs or co-champs 5 of last 7 years)
Memphis (finished ranked last year, with great momentum)
Houston (promising offense, legendary bowl comeback could mean 2015 momentum)
Navy (my dark horse pick; new to the conference and with an offense unfamiliar to several)
Note that I omitted UCF. While the Knights have won the conference each of the past two years, the staggering number of losses to the NFL is sure to leave its mark on the 2015. Also, note than Memphis, Houston, and Navy are all in the West; Cincy plays the former two but dodges Navy during the regular season.
Conference USA
Marshall (outstanding QB Cato is gone, but a prolific offense and manageable schedule remain)
Western Kentucky (a loss vs LSU can be forgiven if it's somewhat close)
Louisiana Tech (another prolific offense, with opportunities against K-State and Mississippi State)
UTSA (Roadrunners seem to be on the rise; can they step up against K-State, Arizona, or OK State?)
First two from the East, latter two from the West. Only one cross-division game among these four during the regular season - LT at WKU in Week 2.
MAC
Northern Illinois (premiere MAC team this decade; a loss to Ohio State can easily be forgiven)
Toledo (plays NIU; can make a good impression with solid effort vs Arkansas and a win vs Iowa State)
Central Michigan (OK State, Michigan State, Syracuse...once again, a long shot, but a definite opportunity)
Ohio (my dark horse pick from the East)
I seriously doubt any of these will be in real contention. But then again, 2008 Buffalo and 2012 Kent State/Northern Illinois remind me that there's always a surprise with MACtion! Ohio does play a weak schedule (outside of an improving Minnesota); but they do travel to NIU to close the regular season in what could be a major MAC showdown.
Mountain West
Boise State (the trendy pick, but they do lose a lot from last year)
Utah State (they've been on the cusp for a few years now; Utah and Washington provide early opportunities)
Air Force (loss to Michigan State can be forgiven with an otherwise solid showing)
San Jose State (my dark horse pick from the West; a loss at Auburn is forgivable if otherwise solid)
Like the MAC, some divisional imbalance. SJSU does play Boise State and Air Force in the regular season (dodging Utah State), so there is at least some opportunity for a block of MW teams to serve as "good" wins for each other. Last year, the MW was considered the "best" G5 conference; can they net some P5 wins and make early strides for a repeat?
Sun Belt
Georgia Southern (opportunity in Week 1 against WVU; late season game vs Georgia is probably a bit too much, but it can easily be forgiven if it's their only loss)
Louisiana-Lafayette (toughest opponent appears to be Kentucky; this could be the Cajuns' - and the Sun Belt's - best opportunity ever)
I do believe the Sun Belt will break into NY6 contention one of these years. With so many question marks with the other G5 conferences, could this be the year? There seem to be significantly fewer "body bag" games - that's a good start in ensuring the SBC doesn't have so many near-guaranteed losses. Do note that these two teams do NOT play each other - opening the door for "co-champs" potential.
LOOK-BACK
Before I dive into my predictions, I want to take a quick look back on how the last nine years worth of BCS/NY6 busters fared the year before their big break.
2006 Boise State 13-0 Fiesta Bowl champs. The Broncos went 9-4 in 2005, which was Dan Hawkins' last year.
2007 Hawaii 12-1 Sugar Bowl defeat. The Warriors went 11-3 in 2006 with a #24 Coaches Poll finish.
2008 Utah 13-0 Sugar Bowl champs. The Utes went 9-4 in 2007.
2009 Boise State 14-0 Fiesta Bowl champs. The Broncos went 12-1 in 2008 with a Top 15 finish.
2009 TCU 12-1 Fiesta Bowl defeat (vs Boise State). The Horned Frogs went 11-2 in 2008, defeating Boise State in its bowl and netting a Top 10 finish.
2010 TCU 13-0 Rose Bowl Champs. Only back-to-back BCS Buster.
2011 None; TCU was the highest-ranked non-AQ champ at #18 in the BCS before the bowls.
2012 Northern Illinois 12-2 Orange Bowl defeat. The Huskies went 11-3 in 2011.
2013 None. Fresno State was the highest-ranked non-AQ champ at #20. Had the American not had the auto-bid to the BCS, UCF would have been the highest-ranked G5 team at #15. For reference, Fresno State went 9-4 in 2012, while UCF went 10-4.
2014 Boise State 12-2 Fiesta Bowl Champs. The Broncos went 8-5 in 2013 - Chris Petersen's last year.
As you can see, the trend is not unlike the National Champion pattern Chip pointed out in his thread. In this case, the G5 representative (or would-be representative) for the given year had at least 9 wins the previous year. So while there are surprises among the G5 teams that don't reveal themselves until Halloween or later, the "premium" teams are indeed the ones working off a more stable foundation.
PREDICTIONS
Here are my Top 3 predictions for New Year's Six contender. Remember the at-large bowls are the Peach and Fiesta - and the Fiesta already got Boise State last year. I can easily see the Peach getting the G5 pick this year, unless it's just a match made in heaven out in Glendale, AZ.
Cincinnati (a lot of returning talent; could be the apex of Tommy Tuberville's tenure with the Bearcats)
Boise State (could be overlooked due to their departures; can sneak up on the harder teams they play and simply out-talent the weaker teams)
Louisiana-Lafayette (if the Cajuns beat Kentucky in Week 1, they could be eyeing the "weak-but-undefeated schedule" route...the challenge will be completing it)
Obviously, my predictions are just as valuable as anyone else's (which is to say, no value). But with several high-performing teams carrying momentum into 2015, it'll be interesting to see just how the race plays out!
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