As we go through the rough patches of the offseason, we're starting to see lists of "dark horse" candidates for national champions. Well, let's take a look at teams from the last 9 seasons and see how the participants of the national championship game fared the season prior. I set the cutoff at 9, because that's when the BCS expanded to 5 games. To even it out with the new playoff system, I will also look at the BCS teams ranked #3 and 4 going into the bowls.
If there are wins vacated, I don't acknowledge that, because it doesn't affect this exercise.
#1 and 2 rankings are determined by who won or lost the championship game. #3 and 4 rankings are from the BCS poll prior to the bowls. All records are taken from the end of the bowl season.
2006 - Florida (13-1), previous season: 9-3
runner up - Ohio State (12-1), previous season: 10-2
#3 - Michigan (11-1), previous season: 7-5
#4 - LSU (10-2), previous season: 11-2
2007 - LSU (12-2), previous season: 11-3
runner up - Ohio State (11-2), previous season: 12-1
#3 - Virginia Tech (11-2), previous season: 10-3
#4 - Oklahoma (11-2), previous season: 11-3
2008 - Florida (13-1), previous season: 9-4
runner up - Oklahoma (12-2), previous season: 11-3
#3 - Texas (12-1), previous season: 10-3
#4 - Alabama (12-2), previous season: 7-6
2009 - Alabama (14-0), previous season: 12-2
runner up - Texas (13-1), previous season: 12-1
#3 - Cincinnati (12-1), previous season: 11-3
#4 - TCU (12-1), previous season: 11-2
2010 - Auburn (14-0), previous season: 8-5
runner up - Oregon (12-1), previous season: 10-3
#3 - TCU (13-0), previous season: 12-1
#4 - Wisconsin (11-2), previous season: 10-3
2011 - Alabama (12-1), previous season: 10-3
runner up - LSU (13-1), previous season: 11-2
#3 - Oklahoma State (12-1), previous season: 11-2
#4 - Stanford (11-2), previous season: 12-1
2012 - Alabama (13-1), previous season: 12-1
runner up - Notre Dame (12-1), previous season: 8-5
#3 - Florida (11-2), previous season: 7-6
#4 - Oregon (12-1), previous season: 12-2
2013 - Florida State (14-0), previous season: 12-2
runner up - Auburn (12-2), previous season: 3-9
#3 - Alabama (11-2), previous season: 13-1
#4 - Michigan State (13-1), previous season: 7-6
2014 - Ohio State (14-1), previous season: 12-2
runner up - Oregon (13-2), previous season: 11-2
round 1 participant - Alabama (12-2), previous season: 11-2
round 1 participant - Florida State (13-1), previous season: 14-0
In most of those cases, the teams already had a solid base to build on for the following year. The one major outlier is Auburn from 2012-2013, which can be explained with a coaching change. The difference for Auburn from 2009 to 2010 was Cam Newton, which shows that a key personnel change can have dramatic impact as well.
However, it is also possible that a lot of those teams got the preseason boost from doing well the previous year.
Expanding the field to 4 teams will definitely help in seeing a team with drastic improvement get into the mix.
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