I was contemplating doing a write up about non-conference schedules, and how various teams did in their scheduling, but then Andy Bitter at the Roanoke Times did a much better job than I could.
So I decided to look at last year's schedule. How do the schedules look after the fact?
For reference, here is last year's post.
Bitter's point system is set up like this:
5: Expected top 10 caliber teams
4: Expected top 25 or top 40 caliber teams.
3: Power 5 teams that probably won’t finish in the Top 25 or upper-tiered non-Power 5 teams
2: Lower-level Power 5 teams or mediocre non-Power 5 teams
1: FBS teams not likely to bowl, maybe some of the higher FCS teams.
0: Most FCS teams or bottom-of-the-barrel FBS teams.
Since we're looking at the schedules in hindsight, we know exactly how each team fared, so I'm going to tweak the point system a bit.
6: National Champions.
5: Top 10.
4: Top 25.
3: Power 5 teams not ranked, but went bowling.
2: Group of 5 teams that went bowling.
1: FBS teams that missed a bowl, or FCS playoff teams.
0: non-playoff FCS teams.
To keep things consistent, I'll be using the post-bowl AP rankings.
Florida State (11 points preseason):
-Oklahoma State (3), The Citadel (0), Notre Dame (3), Florida (3)
The Seminoles' schedule gets readjusted to 9 points. Their three FBS opponents did make bowls, but just barely.
Miami (11 points preseason)
-Florida A&M (0), Arkansas State (2), at Nebraska (4), Cincinnati (2)
The Hurricanes drop to just 8 points. All of these teams looked better going into the season. I'm giving the extra point to Nebraska, since they were ranked #25 going into the bowls.
Clemson (10 points)
-at Georgia (4), South Carolina State (0), Georgia State (0), South Carolina (3)
Clemson gambled in their schedule, balancing two SEC teams with an FCS team and a team that was just finishing the FBS transition. Georgia State's record was so bad that they after winning their first game by one point, they lost the rest of their schedule. Meanwhile, Georgia wasn't quite top 10 material, and South Carolina had another one of their "we look better than we really are" years. So, with those two teams stumbling, Clemson only gets 7 points.
Virginia (10 points)
-UCLA (4), Richmond (1), at BYU (2), Kent State (1)
The final score drops to 8. UCLA wasn't as strong as they were expected to be. BYU went undefeated in every month except October, so their record didn't turn out that great. At least Richmond made it to the FCS playoffs.
North Carolina (10 points)
-Liberty (1), San Diego State (2), at ECU (2), at Notre Dame (3)
Another final score of 8. Liberty ended up being an FCS playoff team, bumping them up, but all of the rest dropped a point.
Syracuse (8 points)
-Villanova (1), at Central Michigan (2), Maryland (3), Notre Dame (3)
The Orange gained a point, for a total of 9, because Villanova played in the FCS playoffs.
Virginia Tech (8 points)
-William & Mary (0), at Ohio State (6), ECU (2), Western Michigan (2)
Tech's score actually goes up to 10, as Ohio State won everything but their week 2 matchup, and Western Michigan wasn't as bad as we thought. ECU was a little weaker, but it didn't help the Hokies much.
Boston College (7 points)
-at UMass (1), USC (4), Maine (0), Colorado State (2)
Points may have shifted around, but in the end, it remains the same.
Georgia Tech (6 points)
-Wofford (0), at Tulane (1), Georgia Southern (0), Georgia (4)
GT drops to 5 points, mainly because Georgia wasn't quite as good as anticipated.
Louisville (5 points)
-Murray State (0), at FIU (1), at Notre Dame (3), Kentucky (1)
Another case of points shifting, but overall remaining the same.
Pittsburgh (5 points)
-Delaware (0), at FIU (1), Iowa (3), Akron (1)
More points shifting, but Pitt should actually lose some, since they lost to half of them.
Wake Forest (4 points)
-Louisiana-Monroe (1), Gardner-Webb (0), at Utah State (3), Army (0)
No surprises with these teams, as they remain the same.
Duke (3 points)
-Elon (0), at Troy (1), Kansas (1), Tulane (1)
Another case of nothing changing.
N.C. State (1 point)
-Georgia Southern (0), Old Dominion (0), at South Florida (1), Presbyterian (0)
NC State is known for having the worst non-conference schedule in the ACC. Technically, GS and ODU should get each get 2 points, as they would have likely gone bowling if they had completed their FBS transition. But they haven't, and there's no reason to improve on NC State's point total.
Let's look at the new rankings of schedules. (new points/old points/difference)
Virginia Tech - 10 / 8 / +2
Florida State - 9 / 11 / -2
Syracuse - 9 / 8 / +1
Clemson - 7 / 10 / -3
Miami - 8 / 11 / -3
Virginia - 8 / 10 / -2
North Carolina - 8 / 10 / -2
Boston College - 7 / 7 / 0
Georgia Tech - 5 / 6 / -1
Louisville - 5 / 5 / 0
Pitt - 5 / 5 / 0
Wake Forest - 4 / 4 / 0
Duke - 3 / 3 / 0
NC State - 1 / 1 / 0
Only two teams gained points, six teams lost points, and six teams remained the same. So, I suppose that overall, there's not a lot of difference, as most of the time the schedule will balance itself out. The largest difference was Notre Dame dropping a point, which affected 5 teams, as mandated by the conference.
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