September wrap up

We finally have the first month in the books, and a few questions have been answered, and not always in the manner in which we expected.



Coming into this season, there were some folks claiming this would be the year for one conference to get two teams in the CFP.  Either Clemson and FSU from the ACC, or Alabama and anyone else from the SEC.  At this point in the season, I think it is a safe bet that this will not be the year.

The first hurdle is Houston.  I think they are coming out of the Group of Five and going straight into the CFP.  That alone dictates that two Power 5 conferences will be left out.  Doubling up on another conference would leave a third out.

So, who are the Power 5 contenders?

SEC

Of course we start with Alabama, because why not?  Once again, I don't want to put them in there, but I have no evidence not to.  Beyond that, I don't see anyone else in the SEC that is a legitimate threat to the Tide.  Someone might be able to upset Saban's squad during the season, but it's not going to be a contender.  This is not like the last few years of the BCS when the top team in the SEC West was undefeated, and the second team only lost to the top team, and the third team only lost to the top two teams, and so on. I think right now, the SEC has taken a step back, and the battle for #2 will be similar to the division races among the ACC Coastal back circa 2008.

Over in the SEC East, a lot of folks want to offer up Tennessee as a playoff contender.  However, they play Alabama in the regular season, and would likely have to face them again in the SEC title game.  I don't see them beating Alabama twice, especially with the swiss cheese that they call their o-line.

ACC

We finally have a year where the Clemson/FSU game will not decide the conference.  FSU essentially disqualified themselves in the way they allowed Louisville to dismantle them, and Clemson has been looking very sluggish. so far.  I think the Louisville/Clemson game this weekend will determine the ACC Atlantic, and I'm leaning towards Louisville.

However, the Coastal is not going to roll over without a fight this year.  Obviously, UVA took themselves out of contention by starting 0-3, including a trip to the woodshed courtesy of FCS foe Richmond.  Duke is managing to hang around better than I expected after they lost their quarterback.  I think they'll make some noise in the division, but I don't think they'll hang in contention very long. Georgia Tech is known for being very streaky, they either have a really good year, a really bad year, or an "okay" year, and they rarely have the same kind of year in back-to-back seasons.  Last year was one of the really bad years, and it took me most of September to get a feel for which GT we would be seeing this year.  Based on the results so far, I think this is an "okay" year for GT.  They might go bowling, but they're not taking the division.

That leaves Virginia Tech, UNC, Miami, and Pitt.  Each one of them has a legitimate shot to take the Coastal.  As long as they don't go all round robin on each other in the loss column and start playing hot potato with the division title in November until someone backs into the championship game, I think the ACC stands an excellent chance of being represented in the CFP.

We still don't know exactly what we are getting with these teams.  UNC squeaked one out against Pitt last weekend.  Pitt therefore is a step back in the division, but it's Pitt.  They can be a pain in anyone's ass.  Miami is still an unknown, thanks to only playing three games so far against inferior competition.  Virginia Tech has outscored opponents 103-17 (including a shutout) in the last two weeks, but has yet to drop those kind of points on a good conference team.  Plus they have the albatross of the Fumblepocalypse (a.k.a. the Battle at Bristol vs. Tennessee) hanging around their neck.  However, VT has the biggest advantage in the scheduling department.  They are the only Coastal team that does not have to face any part of the trinity of the Atlantic (FSU, Clemson, and Louisville).

Quasi-ACC member Notre Dame has played themselves out of the CFP with three losses in the first month.  They still had a chance after the Texas loss, but getting whupped by Michigan State followed by a loss to Duke at home pretty much killed their season.

B1G

This year, it pretty much comes down to Ohio State and Michigan, and we know they play each other on Thanksgiving weekend.  It becomes a winner take all for the division, and most likely the conference.  I just see those two teams steamrolling all of their competition for the most part.

Pac-12

Christian McCaffery is in the Pac-12, so he'll get to the playoffs.  Oh, apparently he plays for Stanford, but you wouldn't know that based on the two weeks of promos ESPN did for back-to-back Stanford games on Saturday Night Football.   I think the Pac-12 likes to beat each other up, and the champion could possibly have 1 or 2 losses.

Big 12

The Big 12 is hurting in the CFP chances.  Oklahoma has already dropped two big out of conference games.  Texas looks like they are working their way back, but they also have a loss to Cal.  Oklahoma State has a controversial loss to Central Michigan that probably won't be held against them, except for the part where they let a MAC team hang around with them for the entire game.  Baylor could run the table, but they have a notoriously weak schedule.  And TCU lost to a mid-tier SEC team.

Ultimately?

Right now, I think the Pac-12 and Big 12 get left out.  Even if Alabama drops one, they'll still be high in the rankings.  If they lose the wrong game and don't make it past the SEC title game, I think one of the SEC division winners will have enough clout to make it.  (Have to hedge my bet in case an 11-1 teams loses to a 9-3 team.)

Currently, the top four teams in the AP poll are Alabama, Ohio State, Louisville, and Michigan.  Since OSU and Michigan play each other, I'll expand the field to #5, which is Clemson.  Of course, they play Louisville this week, so we'll expand to #6, which is Houston.  And there we go.

As of now, I see Alabama, the OSU/Michigan winner, the Louisville/Clemson winner, and Houston in the CFP.  Houston's remaining hurdle is a game against Louisville in late November, which could be pivotal in the entire CFP process.  

For the other FBS teams looking to get into the CFP, I see two options -- either beat one of those teams (as in one of the ACC Coastal teams winning the conference), or hope for Houston to lose (most likely the Louisville game) and jump into that fourth spot.  Right now at #7, Stanford would be the team to take advantage of that.