Week 12 update

Whoa, things are heating up, and the picture is coming into focus.  Let's get straight to the conference races.

ACC
Atlantic Champion:  Clemson Tigers (8-0)
Clemson clinched with the best record in the division.

Out of contention:
-Wake Forest (3-3) was eliminated when Clemson beat NC State.
-Louisville (4-3) was eliminated by losing to Miami.
-BC (3-4) was eliminated by losing to Clemson.
-FSU (4-4) was eliminated when Clemson beat BC.

-NC State (1-5) was eliminated by losing to Wake Forest.
-Syracuse (1-5) was eliminated by losing to FSU.

Coastal
Controls destiny:
-UVA (5-2) can clinch by beating VT.
-VT (4-2) can clinch by winning out (against Pitt and UVA).  There are a few other tie scenarios where they could clinch with a loss to Pitt, but VT must beat UVA for any chance to clinch the division.

Needs help:
-Pitt (4-2) can clinch if they win out and VT beats UVA.  They will be eliminated with a loss to VT.

Out of contention:
-Miami (4-3) was eliminated when VT beat GT.
-UNC (3-4) does not have enough tiebreakers. 
-Duke (2-4) does not have enough tiebreakers.
-GT (1-5) was eliminated by losing to UVA.

Bowl eligible:  Clemson, WF, UVA, Pitt, Miami, Louisville, FSU, VT, Notre Dame

One win away:  BC
One loss away from no bowl:  Syracuse, Duke, NC State, UNC
No bowl:  GT

SEC
East Champion:  Georgia Bulldogs (6-1)
Georgia will either have the best record with a win in their final game, or they will use a head-to-head tiebreaker over Florida (6-2)

Out of contention:
-Florida (6-2) was eliminated when Georgia beat Auburn.
-Missouri (2-4) was eliminated by losing to Georgia.
-Tennessee (3-3) was eliminated when Georgia beat Missouri.
-South Carolina (3-5) was eliminated when Georgia beat Missouri.

-Kentucky (3-5) was eliminated by Florida beating Vanderbilt.
-Vanderbilt (1-6) was eliminated by losing to Florida.

West
Controls destiny:
-LSU (6-0) has a tiebreaker over Alabama.  They can clinch the division with a win.

Needs help:
-Alabama (6-1) can only clinch the division if they beat Auburn and LSU loses two games.

Out of contention:
-Texas A&M (4-2) would need to force a tie with LSU and Alabama at 6-2.  All three would be 1-1 against each other, and 4-2 in the division.  The next tiebreaker would compare the three teams to the next team in the standings, which would be Auburn.  In this scenario, LSU is the only team with a win over Auburn, so LSU would clinch the division.
-Auburn (4-3) was eliminated by losing to Georgia.
-Ole Miss (2-5) was eliminated by losing to Auburn.

-Mississippi State (2-5) was eliminated by losing to Texas A&M.

-Arkansas (0-6) was eliminated by losing to Alabama.

Bowl eligible:  Florida, Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Auburn, Texas A&M
One game away:  Missouri (pending appeal), Tennessee, Kentucky
One loss away:  Mississippi State
No bowl:  Arkansas, Vanderbilt, USCe, Ole Miss

Big Ten
East
Controls destiny:
-Ohio State (7-0) can clinch the division with a win over Penn State next week.
-Penn State (6-1) can clinch the division with a win over Ohio State PLUS a win over Rutgers OR an Ohio State loss to Michigan.

Out of contention:

-Michigan (5-2) would need to force a tie at 7-2 with Ohio State, and they would have head-to-head.  But that would give Penn State a 7th win, including them in the tie.  Among the group, PSU would be 2-0 and win the division.
-Indiana (4-3) was eliminated by losing to Penn State.
-Michigan State (2-5) was eliminated by losing to Illinois.
-Maryland (1-6) was eliminated by losing to Minnesota.

-Rutgers (0-7) was eliminated when OSU beat Wisconsin.

West
Controls destiny:
-Minnesota (6-1) has a tiebreaker over Illinois.
-Wisconsin (5-2) has a tiebreaker over Iowa.

For any 3 loss team to have a chance, they would need to force at tie at 6-3 which would have to include Minnesota.  However, Minnesota's third loss would be Wisconsin's sixth win, meaning that all possible ties would have to involve both teams.  Since Iowa and Illinois have yet to play, there can only be a three way tie between Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the winner of Iowa/Illinois.

If Iowa was the third team, then Wisconsin would be 2-0 among the group and clinch.
If Illinois was the third team, all three would be 1-1, and Illinois would have the best division record and win.

Out of control:
-Illinois (4-3) needs two wins plus two Minnesota losses plus a Wisconsin loss to Purdue to clinch.  They will be eliminated with a loss OR Minnesota or Wisconsin win.

Out of contention:
-Iowa (4-3) was eliminated by tiebreakers.
-Purdue (3-4) was eliminated by Minnesota beating Penn State.
-Nebraska (2-5) was eliminated by Minnesota beating Penn State.
-Northwestern (0-7) was eliminated by losing to Iowa.

Bowl eligible:  Michigan, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois
One loss away from no bowl:  Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State
No bowl:  Rutgers, Northwestern, Maryland

Pac-12
North Champion:  Oregon Ducks (7-0)
Oregon wins with the best record in the division.

Out of contention:
-Oregon State (4-3) was eliminated when Oregon beat Arizona.
-Stanford (3-5) was eliminated when they lost to Colorado.
-Washington (3-4) was eliminated when Oregon beat USC.
-Cal (2-5) was eliminated when Oregon beat USC.
-Washington State (2-5) was eliminated when Oregon beat USC.

South
Controls destiny:
-Utah (6-1) lost to USC.  They can clinch with a win combined with another win or a USC loss.

Needs help:
-USC (6-2) has a tiebreaker over Utah, but needs them to lose a game to make it useful.  USC can clinch the division if Utah loses out.  Basically, they need a Utah loss combined with either another Utah loss or USC win.

Possible tie scenarios at 6-3:

Utah/USC
-Set up:  Both USC and Utah lose out.
-Outcome:  USC wins on head-to-head.

Utah/USC/UCLA
-Set up:  Both USC and Utah lose out, UCLA wins out.
-Outcome:  Each team is 1-1 against each other.  Division records show USC at 4-1, UCLA 3-2, and Utah 2-3.  USC would clinch.  Therefore, UCLA is eliminated.

Out of contention:
-UCLA (4-3) was eliminated by losing to Utah.
-Arizona State (2-5) was eliminated by losing to USC.
-Arizona (2-5) was eliminated by USC beating Arizona State.
-Colorado (2-5) was eliminated by losing to UCLA.

Bowl eligible: Oregon, Utah, Washington, USC
One game away:  Arizona State, Cal, Oregon State, Washington State
One loss away:  Colorado, Stanford, UCLA, Arizona

Big 12
-Oklahoma (6-1) has tiebreakers over Baylor, Iowa State, WVU, Texas, Kansas, and Texas Tech.  They lost to K-State.
-Baylor (6-1) has tiebreakers over TCU, WVU, OK State, Texas Tech, K-State, and Iowa State.  They lost to Oklahoma.
-Texas (4-3) has tiebreakers over K-State, Kansas, OK State, and WVU.  They lost to Iowa State, Oklahoma, and TCU.
-Oklahoma State (4-3) has tiebreakers over TCU, Iowa State, and K-State.  They lost to Baylor, Texas, and Texas Tech.

At this point, the worst Oklahoma and Baylor can both do is 6-3, which would eliminate anyone with 4 or more losses.

The best case finish for Iowa State is 6-3, but due to losing to both Baylor and Oklahoma, they will always be behind those two teams in the standings, thus eliminating them.

Baylor and Oklahoma can clinch a championship berth with a win.  Texas and Oklahoma State will be eliminated with a loss OR if Baylor and Oklahoma both win.

Texas need to win out and have Baylor lose out to clinch a berth.

Oklahoma State needs to win out, have Texas lose a game, and have Oklahoma lose out to clinch a berth.

Out of contention:

-Iowa State (4-3) was eliminated by losing to both Baylor and Oklahoma.
-Kansas State (3-4) was eliminated by losing to West Virginia.
-TCU (3-4) was eliminated when Oklahoma beat Baylor.
-Texas Tech (2-5) was eliminated by losing to TCU.
-WVU (2-5) was eliminated by losing to Texas Tech.

-Kansas (1-6) was eliminated when Oklahoma beat Iowa State.

Bowl eligible: Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas, Iowa State
One game away:  TCU
One loss away:  Texas Tech, WVU
No bowl:  Kansas