5-Week Look-in

Hard to believe that October is in full swing, and we're 5 weeks done with the season already! We're halfway to the CFP Rankings taking over as "the" numbers to go by!

Pleasant Surprises

A ranked Kansas at 5-0. Incredible!  I know some online folks were rooting for ESPN College Gameday to show up at 3-0 Kansas hosting 3-0 Duke. That didn't happen, but what the Jayhawks get is even sweeter! 5-0, ranked, and hosting another surprise undefeated ranked team in TCU! Oh, and NOW Gameday is here to see all of the excitement!

Another pleasant surprise: the ACC Atlantic. It's great to see the conference - or at least this Division -  step up after a few off years. Good non-conference wins by Florida State (over LSU in New Orleans), NC State (over Texas Tech, who in turn beat at-the-time ranked Houston and Texas teams), and Syracuse (over Purdue, who in turn beat ranked Minnesota in Minny), along with a veteran Wake Forest are leading the national media to give this division its props.  With Clemson already 2-0 against the group (FSU and Syracuse still to go, on 10/15 and 10/22 respectively), it feels like the mid-2010s again!

One pleasant surprise - for me at least - is the increased parity. Everyone - including the teams at the very top - have shown that they are vulnerable to an upset. 

• Alabama almost lost (and some argue should have lost) to Texas; 
• Georgia needed a 4th quarter rally to beat Missouri; 
• Clemson needed 2OT to beat Wake Forest; 
• Ohio State came from behind in the 2nd half to beat Notre Dame; 
• Michigan only beat Maryland by 7 in a game where the Terps committed a number of mistakes.

As annoying as it can be to some to see the same old teams near the top as usual, it's at least encouraging to know that it's not "the Top 5 and the rest".

Unpleasant Surprises

Every year features a team (or a few) that don't quite live up to their Top 10 preseason ranking. This year, we managed to see FOUR teams go from Preseason Top 10 to unranked after Week 5: Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Baylor (Nos. 5, 6, 9 and 10, respectively). 

After a couple of banner years, the Group of 5 seems to have taken a step back. Only two undefeated teams remain, both in the Sun Belt. 

• One of them is Coastal Carolina, who would love a 2nd undefeated regular season in 3 years.  
• The other is JMU, who isn't bowl-eligible due to the transition rules going from FCS to FBS. 
• These two teams face each other in Harrisonburg on Thanksgiving Weekend. 

Other than that, only a handful of 1-loss G5 teams remain:

• Memphis, Cincy, Tulane, and UCF from the American
• Air Force, UNLV, and San Jose State from the Mountain West
• South Alabama from the Sun Belt

On the positive side, the NY6 race could be one of the most interesting yet. I think the above three conferences are close enough to each other to where the fewest number of losses could very well govern in the end. The questions: who will be the team to do it, and can we see a new G5 shake off the American's stranglehold?

Paradigm Change

For the 4th week in a row, we're seeing a Head Coach part ways with his school.

• September 11: Scott Frost (Nebraska)
• September 18: Herm Edwards (Arizona State)
• September 25: Geoff Collins (Georgia Tech)
• October 2: Karl Dorrell (Colorado) AND Paul Chryst (Wisconsin)

With the changes in the Signing Day, transfer portal, and NIL over the past few years, it's clear that schools need every advantage they can get when they know it's time for a new direction. I don't know whether this is truly a good or bad thing, but I can see that with the recent shift in player freedoms, the schools are doing what they can to avoid a "wasted" recruiting cycle.

Weeks 6-9 Highlights

As we shift into the 2nd part of the season, here are some of the things I'm most looking forward to:

• Will Clemson lock up the ACC Atlantic before the first CFP rankings are released on November 1? The Tigers could have a 6-0 mark in ACC play by month's end with Head-to-Head over all of the follow contenders (Wake, NC State, Florida State, and Syracuse).
• Will any of the aforementioned "unpleasant surprises" rebound and make September look like an aberration? 
• Will Kansas fall back to earth? Last time the Jayhawks started 5-0, they lost out!
• Can Tennessee get through October with no more than a single loss, and remain in Division contention into the final month? At LSU, and then Home vs Alabama and Kentucky are next up (with an FCS team in between the Tide and the Wildcats).
• How many more Head Coaches will get bounced from their schools?
• Homer question: will Virginia Tech manage to knock off any of the 3 remaining "tough" teams in October (Pitt, Miami, NC State)?

As far as games, here are 5 that I'm looking forward to:

• TCU at Kansas (10/8). Gameday game; matchup of surprise ranked undefeated teams. Kansas could be the first bowl-eligible team of the season (Kansas and Michigan are the only 5-0 teams playing in the Noon slot)!
• Tennessee at LSU (10/8). The winner will take a legitimate step up from their preseason expectations.
• Penn State at Michigan (10/15). After 2 surprising "down" years that saw the Nittany Lions go from Top 10 to unranked, can PSU beat a solid Michigan team and return to form?
• Coastal Carolina at Marshall (10/29). One of the classes of the conference, meeting up against the newest member who is still living large off the Notre Dame win in September. Could be a battle for the Division, and to keep the Sun Belt alive in the G5 NY6 race.
• Cincy at UCF (10/29). Two previous NY6 teams; the former being a CFP team! The winner could become the frontrunner, while the loser could find themselves needed a bit of help to get back into contention.