There is nothing scarier in the world of college football than a classic trap! Especially when it comes at the end of the season, in pure horror film fashion.
While we're still over a month away from the end of the season and conference championships, I thought I'd celebrate this spooky day by remembering season-ending stumbles from years past.
It's a tradition as old as time - or at least as old as there have been rankings. For my purposes, I'll limit the memories to the BCS and CFP eras, highlighting final games that ultimately kept a team from greater glory. These are all teams that were favored to win their game, but couldn't quite get it done.
1998 Part I: UCLA at Miami (Wikipedia link)
This game was originally scheduled to be played in September, but a literal hurricane (Georges, to be specific) led to the postponement. In the first year of the BCS, UCLA was undefeated and in prime position to contend for a national title. Miami, meanwhile, had just lost to Syracuse 66-13 and was a 9.5-point underdog to the Bruins.
Nevertheless, despite a 38-28 lead after three quarters, Miami was able to come back and stun UCLA 49-45. Combined with the results of the next game I'll highlight, this allowed Florida State to jump back into the Top 2 and lose to undefeated Tennessee in that season's Fiesta Bowl.
1998 Part II: Kansas State vs Texas A&M (Wikipedia link)
This was the Big 12 Championship Game doing what it did best during that time: providing room for some upsets. And in this game, Texas A&M was a 17.5-point underdog!
The 1998 game was a classic between two Top 10 teams. Bill Snyder elevated the Wildcats from college football's great shames to a consistent threat and upper-tier team. This is one of two K-State teams (2012 being the other) that were "oh so close" to a national championship game. Despite having a 15-point lead after three quarters, the Aggies were able to come back and win 36-33 in 2OT, knocking K-State from the ranks of the unbeatens.
And poor Kansas State: despite being #3 in the final BCS rankings, they were passed over for ANY BCS Bowl! The 3-4 rule that was instituted the following year was nicknamed the "Kansas State Rule", which would continue through the end of the BCS era.
Interesting to think that had the two above 4th-quarter leads held, the first year of the BCS would have given us THREE undefeated teams (Tennessee, UCLA, and Kansas State). The 2004 controversy was THAT close to rearing its ugly head six years sooner!
2001 Tennessee vs LSU (Wikipedia link)
Unlike the Big 12, the SEC Championship Game tends to go according to plan. This season was a big exception!
The fall of 2001 was filled with scheduling craziness. The tragedy of September 11 shuffled several key games around - including a high-stakes tilt with Florida from mid-September to early December. The rivalry showdown was a Top 5 affair, with #5 Tennessee beating #2 Florida 34-32.
The following week (December 8), Tennessee faced a Nick Saban-coached LSU team that would win the national title just 2 years later. But this LSU team had 3 losses - including one to the Vols back in September. Nevertheless, the Tigers were able to pull the upset as 7-point underdogs. And it wasn't until this year (2022) that the Vols found themselves in serious national title contention again!
Many Tennessee fans still wonder to this day: if they didn't have to play Florida the week before, would they have been in better condition to play LSU?
2006 USC at UCLA (ESPN Game Recap)
USC was an 11.5-point favorite, ranked #2 and in position to make their 3rd straight BCS Title Game, and contend for 3 titles out of 4 years (factoring in the AP title from '03).
Everything "should" have went the Trojans' way. But as we would see the following year, a 13-9 upset to a team's closest rival can lead to great things in the SEC. This USC loss would elevate Florida to #2, who would then hammer Ohio State in the Title Game.
2007 Pitt at West Virginia (Wikipedia link)
We've covered this game previously, including some pretty heave butterfly effects.
Needless to say, I can't come up with a list like this and NOT include this 100th Backyard Brawl game! Another 13-9 upset, with an even more lopsided expectation (West Virginia was a 28-point favorite). Fifteen years later, this is still seen as one of the highest-impact games in modern college football history!
2013 Ohio State vs Michigan State (Wikipedia link)
For the 2nd straight season, Urban Meyer led the Buckeyes to a 12-0 regular season. Unlike the 2012 team, which was postseason-banned, this 2013 team was in prime position to challenge Florida State in the final-ever BCS Title Game.
After seeing Oregon, then Baylor, THEN Alabama all lose in the weeks leading up to this game, the roadblocks of unbeatens were out of the way (besides FSU, but the Buckeyes only needed to be #2 to make the Title Game). And going into the game, the Buckeyes were a 5.5-point favorite.
Alas, this Michigan State team was special. The Spartans had only one loss, a close and somewhat controversial one at Notre Dame. And the defense of this MSU squad was already seen as one for the record books.
This game was more akin to K-State/Texas A&M than it was Tennessee-LSU, or the 13-9 pair above. But unlike the Big 12 game from 15 years prior, Ohio State never led by more than a TD. Michigan State was able to pull back ahead, and ultimately prevail 34-24 and allowed Auburn to climb back into the Top 2.
Admittedly, one thing I liked about the BCS era was its penchant for "spooky" end-of-season games that impacted the championship picture. We really haven't seen this kind of thing in the CFP era.
Sure, we've seen some teams lose opportunities at a Playoff berth due to a loss to a favored team at the end (2017 Wisconsin vs Ohio State; 2018-19 Georgia vs Bama-LSU), or some "showdowns" where the losing team WOULD have been in at the winner's expense (2015 Iowa vs Michigan State; 2017 Miami vs Clemson; 2019 Baylor vs Oklahoma).
But I'm good at working with what I've got, so here are a few "almost" games from the CFP era that could have made things very interesting.
2014 Georgia Tech vs Florida State (Wikipedia link)
Unlike last year's dominant Seminoles team that won the title (and might have even beaten Auburn more convincingly if Jimbo had accounted for his former assistant's knowledge of FSU's offensive signals sooner), this Florida State squad squeaked by so many games. The CFP committee was willing to do what the polls hadn't done before - place the unbeaten team BELOW 1-loss teams Alabama and Oregon...and for this week, TCU as well.
Georgia Tech was 10-2 in arguably Paul Johnson's best season, and the Yellow Jackets had momentum. November wins over Clemson and Georgia gave GT enough of a confidence to hang with the Seminoles in this ACC Championship Game.
Ultimately, Florida State prevailed in yet another close game, 37-35. Had GT pulled it off, their own postseason destination would have been the same (Orange Bowl), but FSU would have been knocked out of the Top 4 and the committee left with an even greater Baylor-TCU decision debate (head-to-head vs "eye test").
2016 Virginia Tech vs Clemson (Wikipedia link)
The one good thing that came from the Justin Fuente era was this season. While #3 Clemson was on the brink of a 2nd straight CFP appearance, the #23 Hokies were able to shrink a 21-point deficit to 7 points, and lead a drive down the field late in the 4th quarter.
The Hokies got to about Clemson's 20-yard line and threw an interception, sealing Clemson's 42-35 victory en route to Dabo's first national title. Had the Hokies pulled off the TD, and then a successful 2-point conversion (the coaches allegedly said this is what they would have decided, had the situation presented itself), this would have pulled Clemson from the Top 4, and allowed a Michigan-Penn State debate to commence.
2021 Oklahoma State vs Baylor (Wikipedia link)
The "spookiest" season-ending game in the CFP era MIGHT be last year's Big 12 Championship Game, that saw the Bears come back as a 6-point underdog and avenge their regular-season loss to the #5 Cowboys.
The great debate remains as to whether this would have been a quality-enough win for OSU to pass Cincy for that 4th spot. I'm still not convinced that 12-1 Oklahoma State would have jumped ahead of 13-0 Cincy, given the public sentiment for a "strong" G5 team such as 2021 Cincy to have a chance. But given how close this one was (the Cowboys lost on a 4th-and-goal by mere inches), it's one that will haunt Oklahoma State for years to come.
With that trip down memory lane - including memories that several teams would rather not have - I wish everyone a happy and safe Halloween! I'll post again later this week to discuss my initial thoughts on the CFP rankings, and what our final regular season month holds in store!
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