As promised in my last post, I've got a few more "butterfly effect" games to highlight. It's been a while since I've done these, which means that we can now look at some games in the CFP era to determine their long-lasting significance.
Kicking things off: a game that seemed destined for one of these posts the moment the initial CFP field was set.
The Buildup
Baylor and TCU are perfect rivals. Both faith-based institutions in Texas that have grown significantly due to their success in sports. The early 2010s saw great heights for both programs: an undefeated season and Rose Bowl win (2010 TCU); a Heisman winner in RGIII (2011 Baylor), and by 2012 a shared conference in the Big 12 (Baylor was already there; TCU felt it should have been there years ago).
The 2014 game between these two was an instant classic, starting with the setup. Baylor was coming off a conference crown, while TCU had just knocked off a Top 10 Oklahoma squad. This gave us a Top 10 matchup for the Revivalry: #9 TCU at #5 Baylor.
The Game
With 11:38 to go in the 4th quarter, TCU scored a touchdown to take a 21-point lead. Game over, right? No way! With a fast-scoring offense, and a defense that suddenly came to life, Baylor stormed back and kicked a game-winning Field Goal as time expired.
Final score: Baylor 61, TCU 58.
The Game Aftermath
This would be TCU's only loss of the season: a close road loss against a Top 10 team. Baylor would go on to lose one conference game themselves: a 27-41 road loss against West Virginia (who would finish 7-5).
Because the Big 12 did not have a Conference Championship Game, Baylor and TCU were considered co-champs that season. In terms of playoff positioning, the interim rankings (and general media sentiment) had TCU above Baylor throughout the back end of the season.
Postseason Aftermath
In the penultimate rankings, TCU ranked #3 and Baylor #6. During the final weekend, TCU blasted a bad Iowa State team 55-3.
Unfortunately for TCU, other things happened that weekend that would boost other teams even more:
- #4 Florida State adding a Top 15 win against Georgia Tech;
- #5 Ohio State obliterating Top 15 Wisconsin 59-0, and
- #6 Baylor earning a solid win against #9 Kansas State.
The final rankings gave us the Top 6, in this order: Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, Ohio State, Baylor TCU.
There were plenty of complaints about what transpired. Plenty of people were stunned that a team would win 55-3 and drop 3 spots. More people were upset that the "big name" Ohio State made it over the "little guys" despite a pretty bad loss of their own (Go Hokies!). Others still felt like TCU probably shouldn't have been #3 in the penultimate rankings in the first place.
The NY6 games leading into the playoff seemed to validate the opinions of those feeling like TCU was the "better" team who had the better loss. TCU obliterated a Top 10 Ole Miss - the only team to beat Alabama. Baylor, meanwhile, was on the other end of a big comeback, blowing a 21-point lead to Michigan State.
Ohio State, for its part, then validated the CFP committee's ultimate rankings among the OSU/Baylor/TCU trio. With a 3rd-string QB, the Buckeyes handled Alabama and then Oregon to win the national title! There was no doubt that Ohio State was the best team once all was said and done, but the question remains to this day: what would have happened if TCU and their high-flying team had that chance instead?
Butterfly Effect
The Big 12 would make decisions after this season that suggest that the lack of a definitive champ was a contributor to Baylor and TCU both missing the Top 4.
- Starting in 2015, the conference announced that in the event of a tie, a tiebreaker process would be used to determine the definitive champ.
- Starting in 2017, thanks to some rule changes in the NCAA, the conference would bring BACK its Championship Game. With round-robin play still a thing, this meant a guaranteed rematch.
- Had TCU won against Baylor, would they have been able to run the table and earn a Top 4 spot?
- Had it been Baylor at #4, would that have sent a message that weak non-conference scheduling is OK?
- Had it been TCU at #4, would that have sent a message that H2H is a useless tiebreaker?
- Had there been TWO spots up for grabs (for example, had GT beat FSU), would the order of Ohio State-Baylor-TCU have remained the same? How would the debate have been different?
- Even if they bow out in the first round, how does this affect the two programs long-term?
- Does Baylor become more selective in its players, possibly avoiding some of the scandal that would plague their program? Do the Bears get another chance to at least contend for a spot in 2019?
- Does TCU extend its prominence, and possibly the head coaching career of Gary Patterson? Do the Horned Frogs eventually get another chance at the CFP in or before 2022?
- From Ohio State's perspective, did this championship cost them future success?
- Many consider 2015 an even better group of players, although that team had its share of close calls and uninspiring performances (including a loss to less-than-100% Michigan State).
- Does a more focused/hungry Ohio State team in 2015 help establish a culture to avoid those costly stumbles against conference foes in 2017 and 2018, and possibly win a couple more championships?
- Without the Big 12 reworking their championship process, do other conferences start to look at theirs?
- Without a change to the PAC-12 Title Game in 2022, does USC do better against Washington than they did in their rematch against Utah - ultimately costing the Trojans their own CFP spot?
I still think that the main issue with how the CFP was determined had nothing to do with what happened on the field -- rather, the issue was that the committee had TCU and Baylor in the wrong spots in those penultimate rankings.
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