Friday, August 17, 2012

Countdown to kickoff: What If?

Back in the spring, between conference realignment, playoff debates, and rumors, the possibility was floated that we might be headed towards 16 team superconferences.

How might that play out?
13 days until kickoff....

All of this discussion is purely hypothetical, and has probably been largely debunked since we first developed it back in May.

With superconferences, the idea is that we only have 4 conferences of 16 teams.  Seeing as how the Big East has already been demoted from whatever has replaced AQ status, and the fact that they can't keep their conference stable, they are obviously not one of the four.  So, we have to choose four out of five:  SEC, ACC, Pac-12, Big Ten, Big 12.  With the existance of the Rose Bowl (Pac-12/Big Ten), and the creation of the Big 12/SEC bowl game, it looks like the ACC might be left out of the game.

But how would these conferences look?   Let's start with the Big 12, or perhaps the Big 16.  West Virginia's move to the Big 12 seems kind of silly, since they are so far away from the rest of the conference.  However, with expansion, WVU might not look so out of place, as they could anchor an eastern division of the conference.

First, let's send Iowa State to the Big Ten, where they would fit better with in-state rival Iowa.  That would leave only Texas and Oklahoma schools (8 in total) in the western part of the Big 12.

We heard rumblings of Florida State bolting to the Big 12, and they would probably bring Miami.  Virgina Tech and Pitt would like to join WVU.  And of course, VT would make sure that UVA was taken care of.  (As much as we love to hate them, we want to keep hating on them, and we respect that rivalry.)

If all of those teams join, there is still room for two more.

Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has long been discussed as a possibility for the SEC.  I think they would see more advantages by staying with FSU and Miami, and reuniting with WVU.  Tech would stay competitive with those teams, no so much against the SEC.  With larger conferences, there would be less crossover between divisions, so Tech wouldn't even have to face the current Big 12 teams very often.  Perhaps one game in the regular season, and then the conference championship if they got there.

What to do with the other 9 ACC teams?  There's still room for two teams in the Super Big 12.  Two of the more southern teams could easily make the jump to the SEC (probably Georgia Tech and Clemson).  The Big Ten will have 3 spots to take teams from the northern part of the ACC or Big East.  Teams like Duke might have to drop down to a lesser conference, at least for football, because they're just not competitive.

Expansion would seem difficult for the Pac-12, without getting too unwieldy, geography-wise.  Boise State and BYU are two possibilities, but I think all of the major football superpowers in the west are already in the conference.

As the map shifts, we could have the SEC in its namesake region, the Big 12 covering the middle (Texas) and east (Virginia to Florida), the Pac-12 in the west, and the Big Ten in the north.  A de facto 8 team playoff, with each conference having a championship, then the Rose Bowl and Big 12/SEC bowls as semi finals, and the winners in the national championship.

Now, we won't see that happen, and I don't think I want to, but it is a fun little exercise to play.  I look forward to getting a version of the NCAA Football game on Xbox that allows me to change conference sizes.

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