It's hard to believe the regular season roughly a third of the way finished...wow, how time flies!
Just as Chip discussed with the various conference races, I thought I'd give some thoughts on this season thus far...and maybe do a little College Football Playoff / New Year's Six speculation.
Surprise Teams
(that is...a positive surprise)
- TCU. After 2 years in the Big 12, where things seemed to get worse than the year before, I was quick to dismiss the Horned Frogs as a program that had peaked. But with a solid start to this season, including an impressive win over Minnesota, I think TCU might be able to move back into the upper half of the conference standings...and perhaps, give one of the "big boys" (Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas State) a scare.
- Texas A&M. Many were ready to write off 2014 as a rebuilding year for the Aggies, what with Johnny Football gone and everything. But then the first night of the season happened! The game against Arkansas showed that A&M is not invincible, but with the way things have gone so far, I now believe the Aggies are right there in the SEC West mix.
- Virginia. The only team of 7 not to receive a single vote for Preseason ACC Coastal winner. I'd have to say that right now, the Cavaliers are playing the best of anybody in the Division. Despite two losses (to high-quality non-conference teams, both by close margins), UVA's defense looks to be one of the best around. I question some of the in-game coaching decisions, but if they can keep things rolling, there's no reason the boys in Charlottesville can't get back to a bowl game...at the least!
Disappointing Teams
- South Carolina. With a Top 10 preseason ranking, the first thing the Gamecocks did was flop a big one in Columbia. Now, after an ugly win against Vandy and a close loss against Missouri, I wonder if SC will even finish as a ranked team. Road games at Auburn, at Florida, and at Clemson could all spell doom...not to mention a possible trip-ups against rebuilding Kentucky or Tennessee.
- North Carolina. Must be a Carolina thing. Another preseason ranked team, coming into 2014 with a ton of momentum. For some reason, UNC's defense is having some issues - 120 points total in 2 games type of issues. I'll have a chance to see these guys in person on Saturday, during my annual Hokie Road Trip. It'll certainly be interesting to see how the Tar Heels perform after two disastrous outings.
- Michigan. Now, I don't think anyone was actually expecting a Big Ten Championship out of these guys. But given the awful performances against Notre Dame and Minnesota (and the awful result of the Utah game...despite decent play), I imagine the folks in Ann Arbor are working the DEFCON scale. If things continue to tumble...say, to a bowl-ineligible point with thousands of empty seats, I don't see how the Wolverines and Brady Hoke can continue together.
College Football Playoff
The committee has a few weeks before releasing anything for the first time, and I'm not going to pretend to know their inner thoughts. But I will try to tackle some of the discussion points that could come into play.
- Odd Man Out. With a 4-team playoff and 5 "power conferences", (at least) one of these conferences is guaranteed not to be represented. After a lackluster Week 2 for the Big Ten, the media was ready to dig dirt on their grave. The ACC's struggles against Akron, Colorado State, and ULM haven't helped that conference. But in actuality, it seems that all five conferences are alive and well, and the race should be a thriller all the way to Championship Saturday.
- Two from One Conference. While most talk has centered around the SEC seeking to get two in, I remain in the "believe it when I see it" camp. Yes, a bunch of SEC West teams are highly ranked right now. But just how will they fare once they're all done playing each other? Same thing with other conferences with highly ranked teams "right now".
- Independents. Notre Dame and BYU have both made it to October undefeated, and with thoughts of contending for it all. For the Irish it's easy: win and they're in (too many impressive games for a 12-0 ND team to NOT be considered). For the Cougars, the schedule might be one notch too low for immediate consideration. But, should some things go their way (a Texas rebound, an impressive UVA season), BYU might be able to find themselves needing just a few late-season breaks. Now how crazy would it be if BOTH of these teams made it in...we could find a bigger playoff in less time than it took to implement this one!
New Year's Six
The committee's other task will be to get the remaining four bowls lined up. Two of my favorite improvements over the BCS at-large system are: (i) no limit on conferences - in other words, the best teams will play; and (ii) guaranteed access to the highest "Group of Five" conference champ - games and opportunities that can help define an up-and-coming program.
Orange Bowl
If FSU can make it into the CFP, the ACC will be guaranteed a replacement spot here in the Orange Bowl. Right now, Clemson seems to be in the driver's seat with a team that could continue getting better as the season progresses. As for the other opponent, all three possible parties (SEC, Big Ten, and Notre Dame) could still find their way to be the ACC's opponent. At this point, I'd probably lean toward an SEC-ACC tilt...but the others are definitely right there in the mix.
At Large Spots
All three bowls with at-large spots will be in play this year - meaning six at-large spots. Some of them may be taken by a displaced SEC/B1G/Big 12/PAC-12 champ...one of them WILL be taken by a "Group of Five" conference champ. With so much season left to go, it's hard to say who the leading contenders are. But here are my first thought as to some possible contenders:
- Power Conferences: At this point, I would say that all 5 power conferences are still in contention for an At-Large (though the ACC's hopes I would imagine are the dimmest due the possibility of a CFP/Orange Bowl combo). I'll explore this in greater detain in my "end of October" write-up.
- "Group of Five" Champ: It seems to be a two-horse race in the American between East Carolina and Cincinnati for the automatic "Group of Five" spot. The Pirates and Bearcats will meet up on a November Thursday night in Cincy, possibly with neither having suffered a league loss. Should either team finish 11-1, I would envision that team being the front-runner. Unbeaten Marshall is right there in contention as well. I'll be curious to see if BOTH the AAC and Marshall can get in...possibly Marshall as an at-large??
- ND or BYU: Even if 11-1 Notre Dame or 12-0 BYU aren't playoff bound, I would be hard-pressed to find either team outside the Top 8 in such a scenario going into the bowls.
Depending on how things go exactly, the Power Conferences might have very little representation within these At-Large spots. At this point, it's possible (though not likely...and certainly not my prediction) that five of the six non-Orange Bowl spots could be taken up by: Displaced Power Conference Champ, 11-1 AAC Champ, 13-0 Marshall, 12-0 BYU, and 11-1 Notre Dame.
"Who's In?" indeed!
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