Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Revisiting predictions: End of September

We're a month into the season, and we hardly know anything.

These are the four teams I picked for the Playoffs:
-Florida State (ACC)
-UCLA (Pac-12)
-Michigan State (B1G)
-Alabama (SEC)

It's too early in the season for me to change my predictions, because the sample size is so small, and mostly consists of lesser matchups.  Besides, everyone has been inconsistent.

Of those four teams, UCLA has had the poorest showing.  Despite having a perfect record at this point, they have looked really sloppy, and just barely got away with wins in multiple contests.  I was ready to start leaning towards USC after their victory at Stanford, but then they got beat by Boston College.

Oregon was impressive in their victory against Michigan State, but I'm not ready to jump on their bandwagon.  If they can get through October unbeaten, then I might look closer at them.  As I said before the season, they usually get a little too full of themselves and drop a game that they shouldn't late in the season.

I thought Florida State could throw a monkey wrench in the system when they suspended Jameis Winston, but Clemson did everything they could to give that game away.  If FSU stumbles, I'm not sure if there is a next man up in the ACC, though.  Clemson looks like they have taken a step up with their quarterback switch, but they're still not quite the Tajh Boyd-led Tigers.  Louisville could be a contender in the Atlantic, but then they lost to UVA. Over on the Coastal side, Virginia Tech looked like they were ready for a fight after beating the Buckeyes in Ohio, but then rolled over for two weeks.  While Georgia Tech currently holds the lead in the Coastal, I don't see them being able to run the table.

Over in the SEC, I'm starting to lead towards Texas A&M, but again, there's just not enough overwhelming evidence to change my pick at this point.

Meanwhile, the independents are making a case to completely screw up the playoffs.

Back to the conference championships:

ACC Florida State (Atlantic) vs. Virginia Tech (Coastal).

FSU survived a QB suspension and a spunky NC State team who seems to primarily exist to be a thorn in the side of the Seminoles.  Since they already have the tiebreaker over the team I would place as #2 in the division, I see no reason to bump them out.

The Coastal is already starting to be it's usually twisty self.  At this point, all seven teams each have a valid chance of reaching the conference game.

SEC
then:  Alabama (West) vs. South Carolina (East).
now:  Alabama (West) vs. Georgia (East)

I like Texas A&M in the west, but they have to play at Alabama.  So, no strong evidence to change the pick now.

The East is a little more interesting.  It was a close call to choose Georgia or Missouri to replace South Carolina.  Taking the Gamecocks out of the prediction was easy, especially after they rolled over for A&M in week one.  Georgia nearly got a lock on it after seeing their running game, but then they lost to South Carolina, which brought up some questions.

B1G
Michigan State (East) vs. Wisconsin (West).

Because the B1G likes to save their conference games for last, I don't have a large enough sample to consider a change.

Pac-12
UCLA (South) vs. Oregon (North).

UCLA started off weak, but could be getting back on track.  I think the South will come down to the USC/UCLA game in November.

Big 12
Original prediction:  Oklahoma will win the conference, but Oklahoma, Baylor, and one other surprise team will go 1-1 against each other, keeping it close until the very end.

I think K-State has made a case to be that "surprise" team.

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