With 3 and a half weeks to go before college football kicks off (2 and a half if you count the FCS Kickoff), our wait is just about over! The Coaches Poll is out; the AP Poll isn't far behind; ESPN and Phil Steele have their lists as well. But just how will things shake out in 2015?
Not surprisingly, Ohio State is an overwhelming preseason #1. And why not, with so many returning starters on a team that just kept getting better? TCU seems to be a consensus #2. These two teams will bookend the opening weekend with non-conference road contests, and I just so happen will be in attendance at the VT/Ohio State showdown (TCU-Minnesota also figures to be intriguing).
Last year, 4 of the preseason top 5 ended up CFP bound (Oklahoma ended up a disappointment). Have the preseason pollsters perfected the art? When I first thought this over, I was surprised...but then, I looked a little closer. Let's consider the last ten years of preseason AP picks:
2005 Preseason Top 5: USC, Texas, Tennessee, Michigan, LSU
Pleasant Surprise: Penn State (finished 11-1, ranked #3)
Disappointment: Tennessee (finished 5-6), Michian (finished 7-5)
Notable: USC and Texas went wire-to-wire as the Top 2
2006 Preseason Top 5: Ohio State, Notre Dame, Texas, Auburn, West Virginia
Pleasant Surprise: Louisville (finished 12-1, ranked #6)
Disappointment: none; all finished ranked with at least 10 wins (also counts as Notable)
2007 Preseason Top 5: USC, LSU, West Virginia, Texas, Michigan
Pleasant Surprise: Kansas and Missouri (won 12 games each)
Disappointment: Michigan (not a bad record at 9-4...but Appalachian State says it all); Louisville would also qualify (preseason Top 10; finished 6-6)
Notable: the "crazy" season, which saw a 2-loss National Champion in LSU
2008 Preseason Top 5: Georgia, Ohio State, USC, Oklahoma, Florida
Pleasant Surprise: Utah (unranked preseason; finished 13-0 and #2 AP)
Disappointment: Clemson (preseason Top 10, replaced coach mid-season)
Notable: Big 12's 3-way tie; four of Top 5 were conference champs (OSU was co-champ with Penn State)
2009 Preseason Top 5: Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, Alabama
Pleasant Surprise: Cincinnati (unranked preseason, 12-1 and Top 10 finish)
Disappointment: Oklahoma and USC (Sooners finished unranked, Trojans barely ranked)
Notable: Six teams made it to 12-0; five went into bowl season unbeaten (Bama beat Florida in SEC Championship Game)
2010 Preseason Top 5: Alabama, Ohio State, Boise State, Florida, Texas
Pleasant Surprise: Auburn (and how?!?)
Disappointment: Florida and Texas (especially Texas, who finished 5-7)
Notable: None of the preseason Top 5 finished in the Top 5 before the bowls (the Top 5 were Auburn, Oregon, TCU, Stanford, and Wisconsin)
2011 Preseason Top 5: Oklahoma, Alabama, Oregon, LSU, Boise State
Pleasant Surprise: Kansas State (unranked preseason, 10-win and Top 15 season)
Disappointment: Texas A&M (preseason Top 10, finished 6-6)
Notable: Alabama #2 going into the bowls, Oklahoma State #3 (largely believed to be the impetus for the CFP)
2012 Preseason Top 5: USC, Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma, Oregon
Pleasant Surprise: Notre Dame (unranked in AP preseason, 12-0 regular season)
Disappointment: USC (finished 7-6...for a preseason #1 - OUCH)
Notable: Six SEC teams went into the bowls as Top 10 BCS teams, all 10-2 or better
2013 Preseason Top 5: Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, Stanford, Georgia
Pleasant Surprise: UCF (unranked preseason, finished 12-1 and #10 in AP)
Disappointment: Georgia (injuries led to UGA going 8-5)
Notable: Three of Top 5 pre-bowl teams began season outside of Top 10 (FSU, barely, at #11; Auburn and Michigan State unranked)
2014 Preseason Top 5: Florida State, Alabama, Oregon, Oklahoma, Ohio State
Pleasant Surprise: TCU (unranked preseason; final ranking #3 with a 12-1 record)
Disappointment: Oklahoma (Top 5 preseason to 8-5 final record)
Notable: First year of CFP; four of Top 5 were in the four-team playoff
Now, on to 2015!
This year, the Preseason Top 5 figures to be among the following teams: Ohio State, TCU, Alabama, Auburn, Baylor, Oregon, and Michigan State. Other Top 10 teams should include teams from the following: Florida State, USC, Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson, and LSU.
This is purely a prediction piece, but here goes:
Pleasant Surprise: Minnesota. With Nebraska and Wisconsin changing things up on their coaching staff, the opportunity is there for the Gophers - even with Ohio State on their league slate. Here's to a 9-3 or 10-2 pick for Jerry Kill's boys from Minneapolis and a shot against the Ohio State/Michigan State winner in Indianapolis.
Disappointment: Florida State. As much as I enjoy the ACC, I think reality crashes down hard for the Seminoles. Being the 3-time defending conference champion, still with a lengthy regular-season win streak, the target will be there just as much as before. But with so many players departed over the last couple years, I see this as a rebuilding effort for Jimbo Fisher and his men in Tallahassee. Beware of Georgia Tech and Clemson!
One more interesting note about 2014 -- I feel that if the AP preseason poll had come out a week or two later, after Braxton Miller's injury, Ohio State would have been ranked much lower...which would have made their overall season even more impressive from a poll point of view.
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