2018 Season Review: October Edition

What a month of shake-ups - particularly in the bottom part of the rankings throughout October! With just one month to go in the regular season, let's take a dive into the season that is (and what might still be).




The Upsets
In September, my Hokies became front-and-center news for their dumbfounding loss to ODU. While this is still probably the most "huh?!?" game played to date, Ohio State did VT some favors by getting absolutely demolished by Purdue. Like tOSU's loss to Iowa last year, this thumping to the Boilermakers could wind up season-defining.


The Rankings
In three of the four weeks in October, we saw loads of teams in the 15-25 ranking range fall. In most cases, this allowed a high turnover - giving us a ranked UVA and Syracuse for the first time in a long time. More on that in a moment. But the top of the rankings has a very familiar look - with Alabama and Clemson firmly in those top 2 spots and clear-cut favorites to December.

There will likely be some CFP Rankings debate about the top 1-loss teams and how they stack up against 8-0 Notre Dame. I say to anyone worried about the Irish: relax! Even if LSU winds up above #4 on Tuesday, they're a 2-TD underdog to Alabama and will fall accordingly if they lose accordingly. Georgia doesn't have the resume of LSU (and lost head-to-head). The Wolverines do have a good resume, but their loss is to the Irish.

Speaking of Tuesday, the ACC Coastal has the opportunity to become the 3rd Division to see each team ranked at some point in CFP Rankings history - following the SEC West and the PAC-12 South. Duke and GT did it in 2014, UNC and Pitt in 2015 (plus some of '16 for UNC), and Miami and VT in 2016-17. UVA is 22/23 in the Coaches/AP with a nice 6-2 record...will Frank Beamer and Committee have it in them to give the Hoos a CFP Ranking?


CFP
As I mentioned above, the three undefeated Power teams have nothing to worry about - just stay the course. If Bama loses, their dominance over the competition will allow the Tide to stay right in it. Clemson's situation is more precarious, due to the relative lack of strength with the ACC this season. Notre Dame might be able to afford a loss, particularly if the competition for a CFP spot includes Michigan. 12-1 Oklahoma or Ohio State could very well leapfrog a 1-loss Irish.

This is just my opinion, but here's how I see the "priority" tiers for CFP inclusion given the landscape. I think 6-9 are the most volatile, with 10-13 more of a "just in case the bottom falls off".

1. Unbeaten Alabama, Clemson, and/or Notre Dame
2. 1-loss SEC Champ
3. 1-loss Big Ten Champ
4. 1-loss Oklahoma
5. 1-loss  1-loss non-SEC Champ Alabama
6. 1-loss West Virginia
7. 1-loss ACC Champ Clemson
8. 1-loss Washington State
9. 1-loss Notre Dame
10. 2-loss SEC or Big Ten Champ
11. 2-loss Big 12 Champ Texas or Oklahoma
12. 1-loss non-ACC Champ Clemson
13. Unbeaten UCF

New Year's Six

In addition to gunning for a CFP spot, plenty of teams still have a shot at a NY6 at-large.

• SEC: The best spot. LSU, Florida, Georgia, and Kentucky could all end up with 10+ wins, even if Alabama runs the table. The SEC could very well be stuffing the NY6 ballot this season, coming just shy of the conference playing itself in the Peach or Fiesta. At this point, I would guess LSU is best-positioned for the Sugar Bowl, with the GA/KY winner bound for Atlanta (for the 2nd game in a row) or Glendale.
• Big Ten: Also in good shape. While the West Champ is probably Rose Bowl or bust, the East still has the Penn State-Michigan-Ohio State combo to consider. Penn State seems to have recovered from its back-to-back losses, and a win over Michigan could send the Nittany Lions back to Pasadena if tOSU is CFP-bound (or Atlanta/Glendale if not).
• Big 12: The other three P5 conferences are in pinch for an at-large. But with Oklahoma rolling again, I give the edge to this conference. If Oklahoma or West Virginia is CFP-bound, then a 2nd Big 12 team has to be selected for the Sugar Bowl. At this point, I would put the winner of this coming weekend's Texas-WVU game into a shot at New Orleans, but only if the Champ finishes Top 4. The Sooners are probably fine at 11-2, assuming the 2nd loss in the Big 12 title game.
• PAC-12: Once again, the PAC-12 is tearing itself apart. Non-conference losses (or lack of non-conference challenge for WSU) don't help. If Wazzu does make the CFP, someone else has to go to the Rose Bowl. Utah, perhaps, if they can win out to the PAC-12 title game? Without the CFP, I don't see the PAC-12 getting a 2nd team in this season.
• ACC: With the Orange Bowl being a semifinal, the ACC's only shot at an at-large is on pure merit. Before you laugh too hard at the ACC's "merit", there are a couple of somewhat fathomable paths. First, Syracuse. A 10-2 Orange, with a strong win over Notre Dame and a close loss to Clemson, could potentially climb into range with enough chaos elsewhere. Second, Clemson itself, should the 12-1 Tigers find the "1" on the short end of the ACC Championship Game (or 11-1, with a loss to winning-out Boston College).
• Group of Five: UCF and Houston appear best-positioned for the NY6 spot, with a combination of decent wins (Pitt, Arizona) and decent conference (USF and Cincy greatly help the cause). If these two can run the table in November, I expect the CCG to be winner-take-all. Should these two stumble, then look out for Utah State and Fresno State. Also waiting in the wings: Georgia Southern, with its strong win over App State and its only loss to Clemson.

November Look-Ahead

This month is where the championships are set up! Between a month full of showdowns, and some promising rivalry games, here are the ones I'm anticipating as we head into the last full month of regular season action.

• November 2-3: The "pivot point weekend", if you will. West Virginia-Texas for firm control of B12 CG destiny. Georgia-Kentucky in a winner-take-all for the SEC East. Even Pitt-UVA for control of the ACC Coastal! Oh, and that Bama-LSU game where the Tide can clinch the West!
• November 10: Clemson-Boston College for a chance to clinch (Clemson) or control (BC) the ACC Atlantic. Iowa-Northwestern for a chance to control the Big Ten West.
• November 17: Syracuse-Notre Dame from Yankee Stadium. Irish seeking a CFP spot, Orange perhaps in play for a NY6 bowl. Utah-Colorado, with a chance for Utah to "complete the set" of PAC-12 South teams making it to the CCG.
• November 23-24: Black Friday and Rivalry Weekend. VT-UVA, either for the Hokies to nab win # 15 in a row, or perhaps for the Cavs to clinch the Coastal. Clemson to atone for losing 5 in a row by winning 5 a in a row over South Carolina. And Notre Dame-USC for a chance at a strong Irish finish.

Here's to a November to remember!