Sunday, October 21, 2018

Week 8 wrap up

I feel like this was the lightest weekend of college football all year, with more than the usual number of teams on a bye.  Still, we're starting to eliminate a few teams from contention.

Oh, and Magic Number is back, ya'll!

Remember, all records listed here are just conference records.

Since we have a few teams that are near the bottom of the standings but have not been officially eliminated from contention, I'll be changing up how I list the losses they need to gain control.  The numbers in parentheses will indicate how many losses are needed from a particular team.  If there is no number, only one loss is needed.

Magic number is the total number of available losses that the leading team has plus one.  If a team's number of losses is equal or greater than that number, they are eliminated.

ACC
Atlantic
Magic number:  5

Controls destiny:
-Clemson (4-0) has tiebreakers over NC State, Syracuse, and Wake Forest.

Needs help:
-NC State (2-1) needs two Clemson losses.  They have a tiebreaker over BC.
-Boston College (2-1) needs one NC State loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Wake Forest.
-Syracuse (2-2) needs three Clemson losses.  They have a tiebreaker over FSU.
-FSU (2-3) needs two Syracuse losses, plus additional losses by Clemson, BC, and NC State.  They have tiebreakers over Louisville and WF.

Just start winning:
-Wake Forest (0-3) lost to FSU, BC, and Clemson.
-Louisville (0-4) lost to FSU and BC.

WF and Louisville play each other next weekend.  Louisville will be eliminated with a loss OR a Clemson win.  WF will be eliminated with a loss AND a Clemson win.

Coastal
Magic number:  6

Controls destiny:
-VT (3-0) has a tiebreakers over Duke and UNC.
-UVA (3-1) has tiebreakers over Miami and Duke.
-Pitt (2-1) has a tiebreaker over GT.  Their loss is to UNC, who is behind them in the standings.

Needs help:
-Miami (2-1) needs a UVA loss.  They have a tiebreaker over UNC.
-Duke (1-2) needs three VT losses and two UVA losses.  They have a tiebreaker over GT.
-UNC (1-3) needs four VT losses and three Miami losses, plus an additional UVA loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Pitt.

Just start winning:
-GT (1-3) lost to Pitt and Duke.

Bowl eligible:  Clemson, Notre Dame
One game away:  NC State, Miami, BC, Duke, Syracuse, UVA

SEC
East
Magic number:  4
(Georgia and Florida play next week, guaranteeing a 5 win team)

Controls destiny:
-Georgia (4-1) has tiebreakers over South Carolina, Missouri, Tennessee, and Vandy.
-Kentucky (4-1) has tiebreakers over Vandy, Florida, and South Carolina.

Needs help:
-Florida (4-1) needs a Kentucky loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Tennessee and Vandy.
-South Carolina (2-3) needs three Georgia losses and three Kentucky losses.  They have tiebreakers over Vanderbilt and Missouri.

Just start winning:
-Tennessee (0-3) lost to Florida and Georgia.
-Missouri (0-3) lost to USCe and Georgia.

Out of contention:
-Vanderbilt (0-4)

Since Georgia and Florida play each other next week, we know that one of them is getting to 5 wins, which eliminated Vanderbilt.  Tennessee and Missouri will be eliminated with their next loss.

West
Magic number:  4

Controls destiny:
-Alabama (5-0) has a tiebreaker over Texas A&M and Arkansas.
-LSU (4-1) has a tiebreaker over Auburn and Mississippi State.

Needs help:
-Texas A&M (3-1) needs two Alabama losses.  They have a tiebreaker over Arkansas.
-Mississippi State (1-3) needs an additional loss by Alabama.  They have a tiebreaker over Auburn.
-Auburn (2-2) needs two LSU losses, a Mississippi State loss, and an additional loss by Alabama.  They have a tiebreaker over Arkansas.

Out of contention:
-Ole Miss (1-3) got caught cheating.
-Arkansas (0-4)

Bowl eligible:  Georgia, Alabama, Florida, LSU, Kentucky
One game away:  Texas A&M, Auburn
One loss away from nothing:  Arkansas
No bowl:  Ole Miss

Big Ten
East
Magic number:  5

Controls destiny:
-Michigan (5-0) has tiebreakers over Michigan State and Maryland.
-Ohio State (4-1) has tiebreakers over Rutgers, Penn State, and Indiana.

Needs help:
-Michigan State (2-2) needs 3 Michigan losses.  They have tiebreakers over Indiana and Penn State.
-Maryland (2-2) needs 3 Michigan losses.  They have a tiebreaker over Rutgers.
-Penn State (2-2) needs losses by OSU and Michigan State, plus an additional Michigan loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Indiana.

Out of contention:
-Indiana (1-4) would need to win out, have Michigan lose out, and have Ohio State lose all of their remaining games except for Michigan, just to force a 5-4 tie.  In that scenario, Indiana would not hold enough tiebreakers to come out ahead.  If other teams are involved in that tie, Indiana still doesn't look like they have enough tiebreakers to come out ahead.
-Rutgers (0-5)

West
Magic number:  6

Controls destiny:
-Northwestern (4-1) has tiebreakers over Purdue and Nebraska.
-Wisconsin (3-1) has tiebreakers over Illinois, Iowa, and Nebraska.

Needs help:
-Purdue (3-1) needs a Northwestern loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Nebraska and Illinois.
-Iowa (3-1) needs a Wisconsin loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Minnesota.
-Illinois (1-3) needs losses by Purdue (3) and Wisconsin (3), plus additional losses by Northwestern and Iowa.

Just start winning:
-Nebraska (1-4) lost to Northwestern, Purdue, and Wisconsin.  They have a tiebreaker over Minnesota.
-Minnesota (0-4) lost to Nebraska.

Bowl eligible:  Ohio State, Michigan, Iowas
One game away:  Penn State, Wisconsin
One loss away from nothing:  Nebraska
No bowl:  Rutgers

Pac-12
North
Magic number:  6

Controls destiny:
-Washington (4-1) lost to Oregon, who is behind them in the standings.
-Stanford (3-1) has a tiebreaker over Oregon.
-Washington State (3-1) has a tiebreakers over Oregon State and Oregon.

Needs help:
-Oregon (2-2) needs losses by Stanford (2) and Washington.  They have a tiebreaker over Cal and Washington.
-Cal (1-3) needs an Oregon loss, plus additional losses from Stanford, Washington State, and Washington.

Just start winning:
-Oregon State (0-4) lost to Washington State and Cal.  They will be eliminated with a loss AND Washington win.

South
Magic number:  7

Controls destiny:
-Utah (3-2) has tiebreakers over USC and Arizona.

Needs help:
-USC (3-2) needs a Utah loss.  The have tiebreakers over Arizona and Colorado.
-Colorado (2-2) needs a USC loss.  They have tiebreakers against UCLA and Arizona State.
-UCLA (2-2) needs a Colorado loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Arizona.
-Arizona (2-3) needs losses by USC (2) and Utah (2).
-Arizona State (1-3) needs two Colorado losses.

Bowl eligible:  Washington, Washington State
One game away:  Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, Utah
One loss away from nothing:  Oregon State

Big 12
The Big 12 seriously only had two games this weekend.  Not a lot has changed.

Controls destiny:
-Texas (4-0) has tiebreakers over Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor, and K-State.
-WVU (3-1) has tiebreakers over Kansas, Kansas State, and Texas Tech.  They lost to Iowa State.

Needs help:
-Texas Tech (3-1) needs a WVU loss.  They have tiebreakers over Kansas, OK State, and TCU.
-Oklahoma (3-1) needs two Texas losses.  They have tiebreakers over TCU, Iowa State, and Baylor.
-Baylor (2-2) needs two Oklahoma losses and three Texas losses.  They have tiebreakers over Kansas and K-State.
-Iowa State (2-2) needs losses by Oklahoma (2) and WVU, plus an additional loss by Texas.  They have tiebreakers over OK State and WVU.
-TCU (1-3) needs losses by Texas (4), Texas Tech (3), and Oklahoma (3), and Iowa State.  They have a tiebreaker over Iowa State.

Probably out soon:
-Kansas State (1-3) lost to Baylor, WVU, and Texas.  They have a tiebreaker over OK State.
-Oklahoma State (1-3) lost to Texas Tech, K-State, and Iowa State.  They have a tiebreaker over Kansas.

Just start winning:
-Kansas (0-4) lost to Texas Tech, WVU, Baylor, and OK State.

These criteria are based on obtaining the #1 seed for the Big 12, so one of these teams might be able to get into the game even without all of the selected criteria happening.

Current projection for the Big 12 championship game:  Texas vs. WVU/Oklahoma winner.

While Texas is the clear #1 seed in the Big 12, #2 is a toss up between WVU, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma.  Since Texas Tech already lost to WVU, I figure they're most likely out, and it will come down to the Black Friday WVU/Oklahoma game.

Bowl eligible:  Texas, Oklahoma
One game away:  WVU, Texas Tech

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