So, some things happened this weekend.
I'm changing up the percentages to show the minimum and maximum winning percentages to better compare the ACC teams. If there are 2 or more teams with a minimum winning percentage than a team's maximum percentage, then that team is out of contention.
ACC
Notre Dame (6-0) - 60%-100%
W: Duke, FSU, Louisville, Pitt, GT, Clemson
L: none
Clemson (6-1) - 60%-90%
W: Wake Forest, uva, Miami, GT, Syracuse, BC
L: Notre Dame
Miami (5-1) - 50%-90%
W: Louisville, FSU, Pitt, uva, NC State
L: Clemson
UNC (5-2) - 50%-80%
W: Syracuse, BC, VT, NC State, Duke
L: FSU, uva
Virginia Tech (4-2) - 40%-80%
W: NC State, Duke, BC, Louisville
L: UNC, Wake Forest
NC State (4-3) - 40%-70%
W: Wake Forest, Pitt, uva, Duke
L: Virginia Tech, UNC, Miami
Wake Forest (3-2) - 30%-80%
W: uva, VT, Syracuse
L: Clemson, NC State
Boston College (4-3) - 40%-70%
W: Duke, Pitt, GT, Syracuse
L: UNC, VT, Clemson
Only in contention for the #2 seed:
Pitt (3-4) - 30%-60%
W: Syracuse, Louisville, FSU
L: NC State, BC, Miami, ND
If Pitt wins out to be 6-4, then ND and Clemson lose out to be 6-4, ND has the tiebreakers over Pitt and Clemson, while Pitt would have a tiebreaker over Clemson. They will be eliminated with a loss OR Clemson win.
Out of contention:
Georgia Tech (2-4) - 20%-60%
Virginia (2-4) - 20%-60%
Louisville (1-5) - 10%-50%
Florida State (1-5) - 10%-50%
Duke (1-6) - 10%-40%
Syracuse (1-6) - 10-40%
If GT, uva, Clemson, and Notre Dame all end up at 6-4, Notre Dame would have tiebreakers over GT and Clemson. Clemson has tiebreakers over GT and uva.
Big 12
Iowa State (5-1)
W: TCU, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas, Baylor
L: Oklahoma State
Kansas State (4-2)
W: Oklahoma, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas
L: WVU, OK State
Oklahoma State (4-1)
W: WVU, Kansas, Iowa State, K-State
L: Texas
Oklahoma (4-2)
W: Texas, TCU, Texas Tech, Kansas
L: Kansas State, Iowa State
Texas (4-2)
W: Texas Tech, Baylor, OK State, WVU
L: TCU, Oklahoma
WVU (3-3)
W: Baylor, Kansas, K-State
L: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Texas
TCU (3-3)
W: Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech
L: Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma
Out of contention for #1 seed:
Baylor (1-4)
W: Kansas
L: WVU, Texas, TCU, Iowa State
Out of contention:
Texas Tech (1-5)
Kansas (0-6)
The teams in the Big 12 championship game will have to have at least 5 wins. Iowa State is already there, and at least one of the Oklahoma schools will get to five by virtue of playing each other.
SEC
Since the SEC is keeping their divisions, and only expanded their cross-divisional schedule, I'm keeping the "controls destiny" format, but tweaking it. I'm only listing division teams in the win or loss column, as those are the ones affecting the tiebreakers. The SEC is playing 10 conference games this year, so it will take longer for some teams to clinch or get eliminated.
East
Controls destiny:
Florida (5-1)
W: South Carolina, Missouri, Georgia
L: none
Needs help:
Georgia (4-2)
W: Tennessee, Kentucky
L: Florida
Needs: losses by Florida (2)
Missouri (2-3)
W: Kentucky
L: Tennesssee, Florida
Needs: losses by Florida (3)
Kentucky (2-4)
W: Tennessee
L: Missouri, Georgia
Needs: losses by Missouri (2), additional losses by Florida and Georgia
Tennessee (2-4)
W: South Carolina, Missouri
L: Georgia, Kentucky
Needs: losses by Georgia (3), Missouri, and Kentucky, additional loss by Florida
South Carolina (2-4)
W: Vanderbilt
L: Tennessee, Florida
Needs: losses by Florida (3) and Tennessee, additional loss by Georgia
Out of control:
Vanderbilt (0-5)
W: none
L: USCe
Needs: Florida to lose out, additional losses by Georgia (2), Missouri, and USCe (2)
Eliminated with a loss OR Florida win
West
Controls destiny:
Alabama (6-0)
W: Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
L: none
Needs help:
Auburn (4-2)
W: Arkansas, Ole Miss, LSU
L: none
Needs: additional loss by Alabama
Texas A&M (5-1)
W: Mississippi State, Arkansas
L: Alabama
Needs: losses by Alabama (2)
Arkansas (3-3)
W: Mississippi State, Ole Miss
L: Auburn, Texas A&M
Needs: losses by Auburn (2) and Texas A&M (3), additional losses by Alabama (2)
LSU (2-3)
W: none
L: Mississippi State, Auburn
Needs: losses by Auburn (2), additional losses by Texas A&M and Alabama (2)
Out of contention:
Mississippi State (2-4)
Ole Miss (2-4)
Both teams lose on the tiebreaker with Alabama.
Big Ten
The B1G is playing an 8 game schedule. The following week, everyone will play their counterpart from the opposite division in the same place in the standings. (So, 1 vs. 1, 7 vs. 7, etc.) Since cancelled games will not be rescheduled, any cancelled divisional matchups will be listed as "No Contest" to keep track of for tiebreaking purposes.
Big Ten teams need to play 6 games to be eligible for the title game. However, if the average number of conference games decreases, then a team must remain within two games of the average to be eligible. (Example - if everyone cancels at least one game, the average drops to 7, so a team only needs to play 5 games to be eligible.)
Conference average: 7.7
East
Controls Destiny:
Indiana (3-0)
W: PSU, Rutgers, Michigan
L: none
Ohio State (3-0)
W: PSU, Rutgers
L: none
Maryland (2-1)
W: PSU
L: none
Needs help:
Rutgers (1-2)
W: Michigan State
L: Indiana, Ohio State
Needs: losses by Indiana (3) and Ohio State (3)
Michigan State (1-2)
W: Michigan
L: Rutgers
Needs: loss by Rutgers, additional losses by Indiana (2) and Ohio State (2)
Michigan (1-2)
W: none
L: MSU, Indiana
Needs: losses by Indiana (3) and Michigan State, additional loss by Ohio State
Penn State (0-3)
W: none
L: Indiana, Ohio State, Maryland
Needs: losses by Indiana (4), Ohio State (3), and Maryland (2)
West
Controls Destiny:
Northwestern (3-0)
W: Iowa, Nebraska
L: none
Purdue (2-0)
W: Iowa, Illinois
L: none
No contest: Wisconsin
Wisconsin (1-0)
W: Illinois
L: none
No contest: Nebraska, Purdue
One more cancelled game will eliminate them from contention.
Needs help:
Minnesota (1-2)
W: Illinois
L: none
Needs: additional losses by Northwestern, Purdue, and Wisconsin
Iowa (1-2)
W: none
L: Purdue, Northwestern
Needs: losses by Purdue (3) and Northwestern (3), additional loss by Wisconsin
Nebraska (0-2)
W: none
L: Northwestern
No contest: Wisconsin
Needs: losses by Northwestern (3), additional loss by Purdue, plus Wisconsin losses or cancellation
Illinois (0-3)
W: none
L: Wisconsin, Purdue
Needs: losses by Purdue (4), additional losses by Northwestern (2), losses or cancellation by Wisconsin
Pac-12
The Pac-12 is only playing 6 conference games this season, and four teams have already had a cancellation. Teams need to be within one game of the conference average to be eligible.
Conference average: 5.66
North
Controls destiny:
Oregon (1-0)
W: Stanford
L: none
Washington State (1-0)
W: Oregon State
L: none
Cal (0-0)
W: none
L: none
No contest: Washington
Washington (0-0)
W: none
L: none
No contest: Cal
Needs help:
Oregon State (0-1)
W: none
L: Washington State
Needs: losses by Washington State (2)
Stanford (0-1)
W: none
L: Oregon
Needs: losses by Oregon (2)
South
Colorado (1-0)
W: UCLA
L: none
USC (1-0)
W: Arizona State
L: none
Arizona (0-0)
W: none
L: none
No contest: Utah
Utah (0-0)
W: none
L: none
No contest: Arizona
Needs help:
Arizona State (0-1)
W: none
L: USC
Needs: losses by USC (2)
UCLA (0-1)
W: none
L: Colorado
Needs: losses by Colorado (2)
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