I admit I took a step or two back from football this weekend. With VT being on a bye during Thanksgiving weekend, I took the opportunity to focus on other tasks around the house, such as holiday decorating. It also didn't help that all sorts of cancellations and postponements were coming fast and furious.
And then the ultimate irony that the Commonwealth Cup could have ended up on its traditional weekend, as the uva/FSU game was postponed due to FSU issues.
As usual, there might be some scenarios I'm overlooking.
ACC
Controls destiny:
Notre Dame (8-0) - 80%-100%
W: Duke, FSU, Louisville, Pitt, GT, Clemson, BC, UNC
L: none
Clinches with a win.
Clemson (7-1) - 70%-90%
W: Wake Forest, uva, Miami, GT, Syracuse, BC, Pitt
L: Notre Dame
Clinches with a win PLUS another win OR Miami loss
Clemson still has a pending game against FSU that was postponed but has not been rescheduled yet.
Needs help:
Miami (6-1) - 60%-90%
W: Louisville, FSU, Pitt, uva, NC State, VT
L: Clemson
Needs to win out, and have Clemson and/or Notre Dame lose games.
Might have an outside shot:
UNC (6-3) - 60%-70%
W: Syracuse, BC, VT, NC State, Duke, WF
L: FSU, uva, Clemson
NC State (6-3) - 60%-70%
W: Wake Forest, Pitt, uva, Duke, FSU, Syracuse
L: Virginia Tech, UNC, Miami
Wake Forest (3-3) - 33%-66% (9 games)
W: uva, VT, Syracuse
L: Clemson, NC State, UNC
Any of these teams are eliminated with a loss OR Clemson win.
Out of conention:
Boston College (5-4)
Pitt (4-5)
Virginia Tech (4-4)
Georgia Tech (3-4)
Virginia (3-4)
Louisville (2-7)
Florida State (1-6)
Duke (1-7) - 9 games
Syracuse (1-8)
Big 12
Iowa State (7-1)
W: TCU, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas, Baylor, Kansas State, Texas
L: Oklahoma State
ISU can clinch the #1 seed with a win.
Oklahoma (5-2)
W: Texas, TCU, Texas Tech, Kansas, Ok State
L: Kansas State, Iowa State
Oklahoma State (5-2)
W: WVU, Kansas, Iowa State, K-State, Texas Tech
L: Texas, Oklahoma
Only in contention for #2 seed, but eliminated with a loss AND Oklahoma or Oklahoma State win:
Texas (4-3)
W: Texas Tech, Baylor, OK State, WVU
L: TCU, Oklahoma, Iowa State
WVU (4-3)
W: Baylor, Kansas, K-State, TCU
L: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Texas
In contention for #2 seed, but eliminated with a loss OR Oklahoma or Oklahoma State win:
Kansas State (4-4)
W: Oklahoma, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas
L: WVU, OK State, Iowa State, Baylor
TCU (4-4)
W: Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas
L: Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, WVU
Out of contention:
Texas Tech (2-6)
Baylor (2-5)
Kansas (0-7)
SEC
The SEC is down to two teams in each division with a shot. Most likely, we'll see Alabama vs. Florida in the title game, but we need at least one more week to shore things up.
East
Florida (7-1) has the tiebreaker over Georgia with games against Tennessee and LSU pending. They can clinch with a win OR Georgia loss.
Georgia (6-2) has games against Vanderbilt and Missouri pending. They need to win out and have Florida lose out.
Out of contention:
Missouri (4-3)
Kentucky (3-6)
Tennessee (2-5)
South Carolina (2-7)
Vanderbilt (0-8)
West
Alabama (8-0) has the tiebreaker over Texas A&M, with games against LSU and Arkansas pending. They clinch with a win OR Texas A&M loss.
Texas A&M (6-1) lost to Alabama, and has games against Auburn, Ole Miss, and Tennessee pending, although the Tennessee game does not have a set date. They clinch by winning out and Alabama losing out. They are eliminated with a loss OR Alabama win.
Out of contention:
Auburn (5-3)
LSU (3-4)
Arkansas (3-5)
Mississippi State (2-6)
Ole Miss (4-4)
Big Ten
The B1G is playing an 8 game schedule. The following week, everyone will play their counterpart from the opposite division in the same place in the standings. (So, 1 vs. 1, 7 vs. 7, etc.) Since cancelled games will not be rescheduled, any cancelled divisional matchups will be listed as "No Contest" to keep track of for tiebreaking purposes.
Big Ten teams need to play 6 games to be eligible for the title game. However, if the average number of conference games decreases below 6, then a team must remain within two games of the average to be eligible. The total number of conference games listed below is double the real number, because we're looking at games per team.
Conference total: 100 (out of 112)
Conference average: 7.14
Until the conference average dips below 5.49, any team with fewer than 6 games played and/or scheduled will be ineligible for the title game. At that point, the two game rule will take effect.
An average of 5.49 times 14 teams equals 76.86 games, which we will round down to 76, which is 24 fewer than the 100 we are currently sitting at.
In other words, 12 games over the next two weeks have to be cancelled for this rule to take effect.
East
Controls Destiny:
Ohio State (4-0) - total: 6
W: PSU, Rutgers, Indiana
L: none
No contest: Maryland
Needs help:
Indiana (5-1) - total: 8
W: PSU, Rutgers, Michigan, Michigan State, Maryland
L: Ohio State
Needs: losses by Ohio State (2)
Maryland (2-2) - total: 6
W: PSU
L: Indiana
No contest: Ohio State, Michigan State
Needs: loss by Ohio State
Indiana's worst case winning percentage is 62.5% (finishing at 5-3), and Ohio's State worst case (at 4-2) is 66.6%. The rest of the teams can't get higher than 60%, even in their best case scenarios.
Out of contention:
Michigan State (2-3) - total: 7
Michigan (2-4) - total: 8
Rutgers (2-4) - total: 8
Penn State (1-5) - total: 8
West
Controls Destiny:
Northwestern (5-1) - total: 8
W: Iowa, Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin
L: none
Clinches with a win OR Iowa loss.
In contention, but out of control:
Iowa (4-2) - total: 8
W: Minnesota, Nebraska
L: Purdue, Northwestern
Clinches by winning out and Northwestern losing out.
Eliminated with a loss OR Northwestern win.
Out of contention:
Purdue (2-3) - total: 7
Minnesota (2-3) - total: 7
Illinois (2-3) - total: 7
Wisconsin (2-1) - total: 5
Nebraska (1-4) - total: 7
Wisconsin is not eligible due to not enough games played. However, even if the threshold lowers enough for them to be eligible again, their max winning percentage is 80%, which is still lower than the 83% that Northwestern is currently sitting at. I suppose there is a slight possibility that enough games get cancelled to put Wisconsin back in play and Northwestern could lose out to lower their win percentage to less than 80%.
The 2-3 teams can only max out at 4-3, or a 57% winning percentage. Northwestern's worst case scenario would be losing out at 5-3, or 62.5%. In other words, Northwestern's worst possible winning percentage is still higher than the best case scenario for the 2-3 teams.
Pac-12
The Pac-12 is only playing 6 conference games this season. Teams need to be within one game of the conference average to be eligible. The Pac-12 has added some games to the schedule to replace multiple cancelled games, then they started allowing non-conference games.
I make no guarantees as to the accuracy of the possibilities or scenarios in this conference. Too much work to figure out the conference that was last to the table.
Conference total: 58 (out of 72)
Conference average: 4.83
North
Controls destiny:
Washington (3-0) - total: 5
W: Oregon State
L: none
No contest: Cal, Washington State
Oregon (3-1) - total: 6
W: Stanford, Wazzu
L: Oregon State
Needs help:
Washington State (1-1) - total: 4
W: Oregon State
L: Oregon
No contest: Stanford, Washington
Needs: losses by Oregon (2)
Oregon State (2-2) - total: 6
W: Cal, Oregon
L: Washington State, Washington
Needs: losses by Washington State (2)
Cal (0-3) - total: 5
W: none
L: Oregon State, Stanford
No contest: Washington
Stanford (1-2) - total: 5
W: Cal
L: Oregon
No contest: Washington State
Needs: losses by Oregon (3), additional losses by Cal and Washington
South
USC (3-0) - total: 5
W: Arizona State, Arizona, Utah
L: none
No contest: Colorado
Colorado (2-0) - total: 4
W: UCLA
L: none
No contest: Arizona State, USC
Needs help:
UCLA (1-3) - total: 6
W: none
L: Colorado, Arizona
No contest: Utah
Needs: losses by Colorado (2)
Arizona State (0-1) - total: 3
W: none
L: USC
No contest: Colorado, Utah
Needs: losses by USC (2)
Utah (0-2) - total: 4
W: none
L: USC
No contest: Arizona, UCLA, Arizona State
Needs: USC to lose out, and then some?
Arizona (1-2) - total: 5
W: UCLA
L: USC
No contest: Utah
Needs: losses by USC (2)
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