CFP Rankings Reaction & Look-Ahead

 It took a few more weeks than usual, but we're now at the point where the "only rankings that matter" are out for weekly release.  And as always, there were some great takeaways.  

Playoff

Not surprisingly, the Top 4 were (in order) Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Ohio State.  Maybe a slight surprise on the 3-4 ordering, but perfectly understandable.

One might argue that Oregon and USC are simply being penalized for their lack of games, but it could also easily be countered that both PAC-12 schools are currently undefeated by the slimmest of margins. Time will tell if either school, or perhaps Washington, can get any wins meaningful enough to get the committee to re-think some things.

At this point, things are looking great for the Big Ten Champ to solidify a spot - with Ohio State and Northwestern winning their de facto "Division Title Games" against quality opponents, and well-favored the rest of the way. And after watching both of those games, I feel like either team COULD win, should the Buckeyes and Wildcats meet up in Indianapolis with perfect records.

The ACC (thanks in large part to its 2020-only member) and SEC are especially smiling, as each conference faces the prospect of sending TWO teams to the CFP.  

• For the ACC it's simple, and seemingly quite likely: a close Clemson win in Charlotte in the ACC CG, over a Notre Dame team that was undefeated to that point (including a 2OT regular-season win over the Tigers).  
• For the SEC there are two possibilities - though neither as likely as the ACC scenario: (1) A 1-loss Florida win over to-then undefeated Alabama, or (2) 1-loss Texas A&M hanging onto its lofty position and passing teams that lose above the Aggies without being overtaken by the PAC-12 or Cincinnati.

And even if either conference falls short of sending 2, things are at least looking VERY favorable for each to maintain its perfect attendance in the CFP era.

And to my delight, we have a Group of 5 contender! Cincinnati is hanging out at #7. A pair of games against currently-ranked Tulsa figures to help...but would it that much? Cincy's best bet is to pass:

• A losing Florida in the SEC CG, 
• A losing Clemson in the ACC CG, and 
• An A&M stumble (or even just unimpressive wins) down the stretch. 
• And hope they don't GET PASSED by an undefeated PAC-12 Champ - or a Northwestern team if they pull off the upset in Indy.

Alas, with 14 BYU, 20 Coastal Carolina, and 21 Marshall significantly further down, it looks like the only hope for a non-P5 lies squarely with the Bearcats.

New Year's Six

With so many CFP possibilities, especially in the ACC and SEC, the NY6 possibilities are nice and wide as well.

At this moment, based on the rankings from yesterday, the NY6 would look like the following:

SUGAR Semifinal: 1 Alabama vs 4 Ohio State

ROSE Semifinal: 2 Notre Dame vs 3 Clemson

Orange: 10 Miami vs 5 Texas A&M

Other Automatics: 7 Cincinnati, 11 Oklahoma, 15 Oregon

At-Large: 6 Florida, 8 Northwestern, 9 Georgia

If Notre Dame beats Clemson again, or if Clemson wins in a rout, someone else should slide into the Top 4, and that ACC CG loser into the Orange Bowl - bumping Miami into the At-Large pool.

BYU Situation

With the committee not being as kind to the other non-P5 teams as the AP Poll was, the chances of more than one in the NY6 are quite slim.  The best bet probably lies with BYU and their ability to schedule (and beat) a quality opponent at this late date. Maybe even Cincy themselves (both teams have an open date on December 5)!

The way I see it, this should be a freeroll from Cincy's perspective. Win, and their CFP chances greatly improve. Lose, and they stand a good chance of staying ahead of Coastal/Marshall.  And for BYU, they pretty much NEED a game of this caliber just to be in contention for the NY6!  As someone who enjoys rooting for the non-traditional teams, I say MAKE IT HAPPEN!!

As a reminder, BYU can never take the highest G5 Champ's place in the NY6. The Cougars (or any Independent) can only make it in as an at-large.

EDIT: moments after typing this, I see that a COVID outbreak has happened across multiple schools in the American - including Cincinnati.  That SUCKS!