2022 Week 9 Wrap Up

We've finally hit the part of the season where tiebreaking scenarios start coming into play.  However, most of them are long shots.

ACC Wheel of Destiny
Atlantic
Controls destiny:
-Clemson (6-0) can clinch with a win OR Syracuse loss.
   W:  Wake Forest, NC State, BC, FSU, Syracuse

Needs help:
-Syracuse (3-1) will be eliminated with a loss OR Clemson win.  They can clinch by winning out and Clemson losing out.
   W:  Louisville, NC State
   L:  Clemson

Clemson has tiebreakers over everyone in the division except Louisville (who is already eliminated).  Therefore, they would win out in any configuration of ties involving teams at 7-1 or 6-2.  The only scenario where Clemson would not win the division is if they lose out while Syracuse wins out.  In that case, Syracuse's 7-1 record would be better than Clemson's 6-2.

Out of contention:
-Wake Forest (2-2)
-NC State (2-2) 
-Louisville (3-3)
-Florida State (3-3)
-Boston College (1-4)

Wake Forest was eliminated by losing to Louisville this week. 

Coastal
Controls destiny:
-UNC (4-0)
   W:  VT, Miami, Duke, Pitt

Needs help:
-Duke (2-2) needs losses by UNC (3) and GT.
   W:  uva, Miami
   L:  GT, UNC
-Miami (2-2) needs losses by UNC (3) and Duke.
   W:  VT, uva
   L:  UNC, Duke
-Georgia Tech (2-3) needs an additional losses by UNC (2).
   W:  Pitt, Duke
   L:  uva
-Pitt (1-3) needs losses by UNC (4) and GT.|
   W:  VT
   L:  GT, UNC
-uva (1-4) needs losses by UNC (4), Duke (3), and Miami (3).
   W:  GT
   L:  Duke, Miami

Out of control:
-Virginia Tech (1-4) will be eliminated with a loss OR win by UNC.
   L:  UNC, Pitt, Miami

VT and uva might already be out of contention, but it's not worth going that far down the rabbit hole.  As much as I hate to say it, uva is in a slightly better position than VT only by virtue of still having UNC on their upcoming schedule.

The UNC at uva game next week has massive implications for the division.
If UNC wins, the following teams will be eliminated from contention:
-uva
-VT
-GT (if they lose to VT)
-Pitt (if they lose to Syracuse)

UNC could clinch the division with a win AND losses by Duke, Miami, GT, and Pitt.  In that scenario, UNC would be 5-0, Duke and Miami would both be 2-3, and every other team would have 4 or more losses.  At that point, UNC already has the tiebreakers over Duke and Miami and would win out in any configuration.

SEC
East
Controls destiny:
-Georgia (5-0)
   W:  South Carolina, Missouri, Vandy, Florida
-Tennessee (4-0)
   W:  Florida, Kentucky

These two teams play each other next week.  Neither can clinch the division with a win, but the winner will have a significant advantage.

Any of the current 2-3 teams would have to be part of a tie with both Georgia and Tennessee at 5-3 (assuming Tennessee beats Georgia and then both teams lose out).  Kentucky and Missouri cannot both be part of the same tie because they play each other next week and the loser would have 4 losses.

Out of control:
-South Carolina (2-3)
   W:  Kentucky
   L:  Georgia, Missouri

There are three possible tie configurations for USCe - a 3 way tie, a 4 way tie with Kentucky, or a 4 way tie with Missouri.

In a three way tie, Georgia, Tennessee, and South Carolina would all be 1-1 against each other, with Georgia and SC having 4-2 divisional records compared to Tennessee's 3-3.  Georgia would clinch based on the head-to-head over SC.
In a four way tie of UGA/UT/Mizzou/USCe, Georgia and Missouri would be 2-1 against the group, while Tennessee and SC would be 1-2.  Georgia would clinch on the head-to-head over Missouri.
In a four way tie of UGA/UT/UK/USCe, South Carolina and Tennessee would be 2-1 in the group with Georgia and Kentucky at 1-2.  South Carolina would then clinch on a head-to-head over Tennessee.

Therefore, South Carolina's only possibility of clinching the division requires:
-winning out
-Georgia losing out
-Tennessee beating Georgia and then losing out
-Kentucky winning out

South Carolina will be eliminated with a loss OR Missouri win over Kentucky OR Georgia win over Tennessee.

Out of contention based on tiebreakers:
For Kentucky and Missouri, there are only two possible configurations - a three way tie with Georgia and Tennessee, or a 4 way tie with Georgia, Tennessee, and South Carolina.

-Kentucky (2-3)
   W:  Florida
   L:  South Carolina, Tennessee

In the three way tie, Tennessee would have wins over Georgia and Kentucky and clinch.
In a four way tie, Tennessee and South Carolina would be 2-1 against the group while Kentucky and Georgia would be 1-2.   As outlined above, SC wins this one.

-Mizzou (2-3)
   W:  Vanderbilt, South Carolina
   L:  Georgia, Florida

In a three way tie, all three teams would be 1-1 in the group.  Georgia and Missouri would have 4-2 divisional records, compared to Tennessee's 3-3.  Georgia would then clinch on the head-to-head over Missouri.
In a four way tie, Georgia and Missouri would be 2-1 against the group, while Tennessee and SC would be 1-2.  Georgia would clinch on the head-to-head over Missouri.

In all of these scenarios, Kentucky and Missouri both lose out on tiebreakers.  Therefore, we can say they are officially eliminated from contention.

Out of contention due to losses:
-Florida (1-4) 
-Vanderbilt (0-4)

West
Controls destiny:
-Alabama (4-1)
   W:  Arkansas, Texas A&M, Mississippi State
-LSU (4-1)
   W:  Mississippi State, Auburn, Ole Miss

Needs help:
-Ole Miss (4-1) needs a loss by LSU.
   W:  Auburn, Texas A&M
   L:  LSU
-Arkansas (2-3) needs losses by Alabama (3) and Miss State, plus additional losses by LSU and Ole Miss.
   W:  Auburn
   L:  Texas A&M, Alabama, Miss State

Out of control:
-Mississippi State (2-3)
   W:  Texas A&M, Arkansas
   L:  LSU, Alabama

Mississippi State would need both LSU and Alabama to lose out in order to gain control of their destiny.  But those two teams have yet to play each other, so one of them will get to 5 wins.  Therefore, Mississippi State will have to rely on multi-team ties at 5-3.

The reason that Arkansas is still in the "Needs help" category is that they still have the ability to gain some tiebreakers over LSU and Ole Miss, so they don't need those teams to completely lose out.

Out of contention:
-Texas A&M (1-4)
   W:  Arkansas
   L:  Mississippi State, Alabama, Ole Miss
-Auburn (1-4)
   L:  LSU, Ole Miss, Arkansas

The winner of LSU/Alabama will have 5 wins, meaning that any team with 4 or more losses is automatically eliminated.

Mississippi State and Arkansas can be eliminated with their next loss.  Since Arkansas plays out of conference next week, they could also be eliminated if the winner of Alabama/LSU wins the following week (when LSU plays Arkansas anyway).

Big Ten
East
Controls destiny:
-Michigan (5-0)
   W:  Maryland, Indiana, PSU, Michigan State
-Ohio State (5-0)
   W:  Rutgers, Michigan State, Penn State

Since these teams play each other at the end of the season, the worst possible record to clinch the division is 6-3.  That eliminates any team with 4 or more losses.

Needs help:
-Penn State (3-2) needs losses by Michigan (3) and Ohio State (3).
   L:  Michigan, Ohio State
-Maryland (3-2) needs 3 Michigan losses plus an additional loss by Ohio State.
   W:  Michigan State, Indiana
   L:  Michigan

Out of contention:
-Rutgers (1-4)
-Michigan State (1-4)
-Indiana (1-4)

West
Controls destiny:
-Illinois (4-1)
   W:  Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska
-Purdue (3-2)
   W:  Minnesota, Nebraska
   L:  Wisconsin

Needs help:
-Nebraska (2-3) needs 2 losses by Purdue and an additional loss by Illinois.
   L:  Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois
-Iowa (2-3) needs 3 losses by Illinois.
   W:  Northwestern
   L: Illinois
-Wisconsin (2-3) needs losses by Illinois (3) and Purdue.
   W:  Northwestern, Purdue
   L:  Illinois
-Minnesota (2-3) needs losses by Purdue (2) and Illinois (3).
   L:  Purdue, Illinois
-Northwestern (1-4) needs losses by Wisconsin (2) and Nebraska, plus additional losses by Illinois (2) and Purdue.
   W:  Nebraska
   L:  Wisconsin, Iowa

Big 12
-TCU (5-0)
   W:  Oklahoma, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, WVU
-Kansas State (4-1)
   W:  Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Oklahoma State
   L:  TCU
-Oklahoma State (3-2)
   W:  Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas
   L:  TCU, Kansas State
-Texas (3-2)
   W:  WVU, Oklahoma, Iowa State
   L:  Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
-Baylor (3-2)
   W:  Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech
   L:  Oklahoma State, WVU
-Texas Tech (2-3)
   W:  Texas, WVU
   L:  Kansas State, OK State, Baylor
-Kansas (2-3)
   W:  WVU, Iowa State
   L:  TCU, Oklahoma, Baylor
-Oklahoma (2-3)
   W:  Kansas, Iowa State
   L:  Kansas State, TCU, Texas
-West Virginia (1-4)
   W:  Baylor
   L:  Kansas, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU
-Iowa State (0-5)
   L:  Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Oklahoma

Iowa State is definitely eliminated from contention of the #1 seed.  They are likely eliminated from contention completely as their best record of 4-5 would equal K-State's worst possible 4-5 and K-State would have the head-to-head.  However, I'm not sure if there's other tiebreakers or if that scenario is even possible.

A K-State victory in week 10 would help eliminate teams at the bottom of the conference.  In that case, both TCU and K-State would have 5 or more wins, so any team with 5 or more losses is completely out.  Interestingly enough, we have a Big 12 Toilet Bowl scheduled for week 10, with WVU facing off against Iowa State.

Iowa State will be eliminated with a loss OR K-State win.
WVU will be eliminated with a loss AND K-State win.

Pac-12
-Oregon (5-0)
   W:  Washington State, Stanford, Arizona, UCLA, Cal
-UCLA (4-1)
   W: Colorado, Washington, Utah, Stanford
   L:  Oregon
-Utah (4-1)
   W:  Arizona State, Oregon State, USC, Washington State
   L:  UCLA
-USC (5-1)
   W:  Stanford, Oregon State, Arizona State, Washington State, Arizona
   L:  Utah
-Washington (3-2)
   W:  Stanford, Arizona, Cal
   L:  UCLA, Arizona State
-Oregon State (3-2)
   W:  Stanford, Washington State, Colorado
   L:  USC, Utah
-Arizona State (2-3)
   W:  Washington, Colorado
   L:  Utah, USC, Stanford

We have an interesting scenario near the top among the 1 loss teams.  As it stands, the winner of USC/UCLA and Utah can both win out and end at 8-1.  In those scenarios, Utah would trump USC, but UCLA would trump Utah.  At the moment, the only one of those three teams that can completely control their destiny is UCLA, assuming Oregon stays at 1 loss or less.

Probably out:
-Arizona (1-4)
   W:  Colorado
   L: Cal, Oregon, Washington, USC
-Cal (1-4)
   W:  Arizona
   L:  Washington State, Colorado, Washington, Oregon
-Colorado (1-4)
   W:  Cal
   L:  UCLA, Arizona, Oregon State, Arizona State

Since Oregon and USC both have 5 wins, we know that the worst possible record for the top two seeds is 5-4.  Any of these 1-4 teams would have to resort to a series of tiebreakers.

Out of contention:
-Washington State (1-4)
   W:  Cal
   L:  Oregon, USC, Oregon State, Utah
-Stanford (1-5)
   W:  Arizona State
   L:  USC, Washington, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA

Stanford is out because their best possible record of 4-5 is still worse than both Oregon and USC's worst possible records of 5-4.  Even if Washington State, Oregon, and USC all go 5-4, Washington State lost to the other two teams putting them on the wrong end of all tiebreakers.