Sunday, October 15, 2023

2023 Week 7 wrap-up

The networks actually scheduled all of the Power 5 games to end before midnight on Saturday.  So we have an early look at how shaken up the conference races got.  Plus, we have our first teams officially being taken out of conference title contention.

Remember that any talk of records and being undefeated strictly refers to conference records.

ACC Wheel of Destiny
Florida State (4-0)
   W:  BC, Clemson, VT, Syracuse
UNC (3-0)
   W:  Pitt, Syracuse, Miami
Duke (2-0)
   W:  Clemson, NC State
Louisville (3-1)
   W:  Georgia Tech, BC, NC State
   L:  Pitt

Georgia Tech (2-1)
   W:  Wake Forest, Miami
   L:  Louisville
Virginia Tech (2-1)
   W:  Pitt, WF
   L:  FSU

Clemson (2-2)
   W:  Syracuse, WF
   L:  Duke, FSU
Pitt (1-2)
   W:  Louisville
   L:  UNC, VT

NC State (1-2)
   W:  uva
   L:  Louisville, Duke

Boston College (1-2)
   W:  uva
   L:  FSU, Louisville
Miami (0-2)
   L: GT, UNC
uva (0-2)
   L:  NC State, BC
Wake Forest (0-3)
   L: GT, Clemson, VT
Syracuse (0-3)
   L:  Clemson, UNC, FSU

With Louisville's loss, the ACC doesn't have to worry about more than 2 undefeated teams at the end of the season, either in conference record or overall.  Duke has to play both UNC and FSU, which will guarantee at least one of those three dropping from the undefeated ranks.  Now, there's still plenty of time for typical #goacc chaos if the top teams start losing and we get a logjam of 1 or 2 loss teams.

SEC
East
Controls destiny:
-Georgia (4-0)
   W:  USCe, Kentucky, Vandy
-Florida (3-1)
   W:  Tennessee, Vandy, South Carolina
   L:  Kentucky

-Missouri (2-1)
   W:  Vandy, Kentucky

Needs help:
-Tennessee (2-1) needs a Florida loss.
   W:  South Carolina
   L:  Florida
-Kentucky (2-2) needs losses by Georgia (3), Missouri (2), and Florida.
   W:  Vandy, Florida
   L:  Georgia, Missouri

-South Carolina (1-3) needs losses by Georgia (3) and Tennessee (2).
   L:  Georgia, Tennessee, Florida

Out of contention:
-Vanderbilt (0-4)
   L:  Kentucky, Missouri, Florida, Georgia

Vandy can't possibly come out ahead in any tiebreaking scenarios.  Since they've already lost to Georgia, they won't come out ahead in a two way tie -- although that scenario is impossible because a 4-4 Georgia record would mean that Florida gets a 4th win.  That's two teams that beat Vandy.

West
Controls destiny:
-Alabama (4-0)
   W:  Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Arkansas

Needs help:
-Ole Miss (2-1) needs 2 Alabama losses.
   W:  LSU, Arkansas
   L:  Alabama
-LSU (3-1) needs an Ole Miss loss.
   W:  Arkansas, Auburn
   L:  Ole Miss
-Texas A&M (2-2) needs 3 Alabama losses.
   W:  Auburn, Arkansas
   L:  Alabama

Just start winning:
-Auburn (0-3)
   L:  Texas A&M, LSU
-Mississippi State (0-2)
   L:  Alabama

Out of contention:
-Arkansas (0-4)
   L:  LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Alabama

Like Vandy in the East, Arkansas is on the wrong end of too many tiebreakers to have a chance.  For Alabama to end at 4-4, LSU would gain a 4th win, and again we have two teams that beat Arkansas.

Big Ten
East
Controls destiny:
-Michigan (4-0)
   W:  Rutgers, Indiana
-Ohio State (3-0)
   W:  Indiana, Maryland
-Penn State (3-0) has cross-divisional wins.

Needs help:
-Maryland (2-2) needs 3 OSU losses, plus additional losses by Michigan and PSU.
   W:  Michigan State, Indiana
   L:  Ohio State
-Rutgers (2-2) needs 3 Michigan losses, plus additional losses by OSU and PSU.
   W:  Michigan State
   L:  Michigan

Just start winning:
-Indiana (0-3)
   L:  Ohio State, Maryland, Michigan
-Michigan State (0-3)
   L:  Maryland, Rutgers

West
Controls destiny:
-Iowa (3-1)
   W:  Purdue, Wisconsin
-Northwestern (1-2)
   W:  Minnesota
-Nebraska (1-2)
   W:  Illinois
   L:  Minnesota

Needs help:
-Wisconsin (2-1) needs an Iowa loss.
   W:  Purdue
   L:  Iowa

-Minnesota (1-2) needs a Northwestern loss.
   W:  Nebraska
   L:  Northwestern

-Purdue (1-3) needs losses by Wisconsin (3) and Iowa (3).
   W:  Illinois
   L:  Wisconsin, Iowa

Just start winning:
-Illinois (1-3)
   L:  Purdue, Nebraska

Drive for 325:  Once again, Iowa's average goes down.  And if there are any non-offensive scores, my calculations are actually benefitting the offense.  Iowa actually needs to average 30 points in their remaining games to hit the benchmark.

After 7 games:
Total points / Benchmark: 146 / 175
Points per game:  20.86

Big 12
Oklahoma (3-0)
   W:  Cincinnati, Iowa State, Texas
Iowa State (3-1)
   W:  Oklahoma State, TCU, Cincinnati
   L:  Oklahoma

West Virginia (2-1)
   W:  Texas Tech, TCU
   L:  Houston
Texas (2-1)
   W:  Baylor, Kansas
   L:  Oklahoma

Oklahoma State (2-1)
   W:  Kansas State, Kansas
   L:  Iowa State
Kansas State (2-1)
   W:  UCF, Texas Tech
   L:  OK State

Kansas (2-2)
   W:  BYU, UCF
   L:  Texas, Oklahoma State

Texas Tech (2-2)
   W:  Houston, Baylor
   L:  WVU, Kansas State
TCU (2-2)
   W:  Houston, BYU
   L:  WVU, Iowa State

BYU (1-2)
   W:  Cincinnati
   L:  Kansas, TCU
Baylor (1-2)
   W:  UCF
   L:  Texas, Texas Tech
Houston (1-2)
   W:  WVU
   L:  TCU, Texas Tech
Cincinnati (0-2)
   L:  Oklahoma, Iowa State
UCF (0-3)
   L:  Kansas State, Baylor, Kansas

Pac-12
USC (4-0) - Big Ten
   W:  Stanford, Arizona State, Colorado, Arizona
Washington (3-0) - Big Ten
   W:  Cal, Arizona, Oregon
Oregon State (3-1) - Pac-2
   W:  Utah, Cal, UCLA
   L:  Washington State
Oregon (2-1) - Big Ten
   W:  Colorado, Stanford
   L:  Washington

Utah (2-1) - Big 12
   W:  UCLA, Cal
   L:  Oregon State
Arizona (2-2) - Big 12
   W:  Stanford, Washington State
   L:  Washington, USC

UCLA (1-2) - Big Ten
   W:  Washington State
   L:  Utah, Oregon State

Washington State (1-2) - Pac-2
   W:  Oregon State
   L:  UCLA, Arizona
Cal (1-3) - ACC
   W:  Arizona State
   L:  Washington, Oregon State, Utah
Stanford (1-3) - ACC
   W:  Colorado
   L:  USC, Arizona, Oregon
Colorado (1-3) - Big 12
   W:  Arizona State
   L:  Oregon, USC, Stanford
Arizona State (0-3) - Big 12
   L:  USC, Cal, Colorado

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