One of the problems of having a Thursday night game in October is wanting to start looking ahead, but having to wait at least 2 days for everyone else to play.
Remember that any talk of records and being undefeated strictly refers to conference records. For the conferences with no divisions, the "controls destiny" section refers to teams that can control their own destiny to get into the conference championship game as either the #1 or #2 team.
ACC Wheel of Destiny
Controls destiny:
-Florida State (6-0)
W: BC, Clemson, VT, Syracuse, Duke, WF
-Louisville (4-1)
W: Georgia Tech, BC, NC State, Duke
L: Pitt
-Virginia Tech (3-1)
W: Pitt, WF, Syracuse
L: FSU
Pivotal game in week 10 is VT at Louisville in a battle for the #2 seed in the ACC.
FSU can lock into the ACCCG with a win next weekend, which means their final conference record would be 8-0 or 7-1. The only other team that can finish as high as 7-1 would be the winner of VT/Louisville. Wins by both FSU and VT would ensure that FSU gets the #1 seed.
Needs help:
-Georgia Tech (3-2)
W: Wake Forest, Miami, UNC
L: Louisville, BC
-UNC (3-2)
W: Pitt, Syracuse, Miami
L: uva, GT
-Duke (2-2)
W: Clemson, NC State
L: FSU, Louisville
-NC State (2-2)
W: uva, Clemson
L: Louisville, Duke
-Boston College (2-2)
W: uva, GT
L: FSU, Louisville
-Miami (2-2)
W: Clemson, uva
L: GT, UNC
Any of these teams could regain control if the winner of VT/Louisville loses another game. BC and NC State play VT, while Miami plays Louisville.
Out of contention for #1 seed:
-uva (1-3)
W: UNC
L: NC State, BC, Miami
-Pitt (1-3)
W: Louisville
L: UNC, VT, WF
-Clemson (2-4)
W: Syracuse, WF
L: Duke, FSU, Miami, NC State
-Wake Forest (1-4)
W: Pitt
L: GT, Clemson, VT, FSU
-Syracuse (0-4)
L: Clemson, UNC, FSU, VT
Since FSU currently has 6 wins, the only way for a team to pass them as the #1 seed is to have more than 6 wins, which none of these teams can achieve. Some of these teams are probably already completely eliminated if we go further down the tiebreakers. But those exercises are not worth our time right now as they will probably work themselves out in the next couple of weeks.
The VT/Louisville game is also very pivotal for these teams at the bottom of the standings.
-The current 4-loss teams would be eliminated with a loss OR a Louisville win OR a loss combined with a VT win.
-The current 3-loss teams would be eliminated with a loss AND a Louisville win.
SEC
East
Controls destiny:
-Georgia (5-0)
W: USCe, Kentucky, Vandy, Florida
-Missouri (3-1)
W: Vandy, Kentucky, South Carolina
Needs help:
-Florida (3-2) needs Georgia to lose out.
W: Tennessee, Vandy, South Carolina
L: Kentucky, Georgia
-Tennessee (3-2) needs a Florida loss and an additional Georgia loss.
W: South Carolina, Kentucky
L: Florida
Out of contention:
-Kentucky (2-3)
W: Vandy, Florida
L: Georgia, Missouri, Tennessee
-South Carolina (1-5)
L: Georgia, Tennessee, Florida, Missouri
-Vanderbilt (0-5)
L: Kentucky, Missouri, Florida, Georgia
Kentucky's only chance is forcing at 5-3 tie at the top with Georgia and other teams. However, they have already played all of the teams that would be in that hypothetical tie and only have one tiebreaker, therefore coming out on the bottom in all scenarios.
West
Controls destiny:
-Alabama (5-0)
W: Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Arkansas
Needs help:
-Ole Miss (4-1) needs 2 Alabama losses.
W: LSU, Arkansas, Auburn
L: Alabama
-LSU (4-1) needs an Ole Miss loss.
W: Mississippi State, Arkansas, Auburn
L: Ole Miss
-Texas A&M (3-2) needs 3 Alabama losses.
W: Auburn, Arkansas
L: Alabama
Out of contention:
-Auburn (1-4)
W: Mississippi State
L: Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss
-Mississippi State (1-4)
W: Arkansas
L: LSU, Alabama, Auburn
-Arkansas (0-5)
L: LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Alabama, Mississippi State
Big Ten
East
Controls destiny:
-Michigan (5-0)
W: Rutgers, Indiana, Michigan State
-Ohio State (5-0)
W: Indiana, Maryland, Penn State
Needs help:
-Penn State (4-1) needs 2 OSU losses.
W: Indiana
L: Ohio State
-Rutgers (3-2) needs 3 Michigan losses, plus an additional loss by OSU.
W: Michigan State, Indiana
L: Michigan
-Maryland (2-3) needs 4 OSU losses, plus an additional losses by Michigan (2).
W: Michigan State, Indiana
L: Ohio State
Out of contention:
-Indiana (0-5)
L: Ohio State, Maryland, Michigan, Rutgers, PSU
-Michigan State (0-5)
L: Maryland, Rutgers, Michigan
West
Controls destiny:
-Minnesota (3-2)
W: Nebraska, Iowa
L: Northwestern
Needs help:
-Iowa (3-2) needs a Minnesota loss.
W: Purdue, Wisconsin
L: Minnesota
-Wisconsin (3-2) needs an Iowa loss.
W: Purdue, Illinois
L: Iowa
-Nebraska (3-2) needs a Minnesota loss.
W: Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue
L: Minnesota
-Northwestern (2-3) needs losses by Minnesota (2) and Nebraska (2).
W: Minnesota
L: Nebraska
Just start winning:
-Purdue (1-4)
W: Illinois
L: Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska
-Illinois (1-4)
L: Purdue, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Drive for 325: On a bye this week, so no update. But that bye needs to rejuvenate them to where they can score 34+ points per game for the rest of the season if they want to hit the benchmark.
After 8 games:
Total points / Benchmark: 156 / 200
Points per game: 19.5
Big 12
Since there is such a logjam at the top of the standings here, I'm not sure if teams truly control their own destiny at this point.
-Oklahoma (4-1)
W: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Texas, UCF
L: Kansas
-Iowa State (4-1)
W: Oklahoma State, TCU, Cincinnati, Baylor
L: Oklahoma
-Texas (4-1)
W: Baylor, Kansas, Houston, BYU
L: Oklahoma
-Oklahoma State (4-1)
W: Kansas State, Kansas, WVU, Cincinnati
L: Iowa State
-Kansas State (4-1)
W: UCF, Texas Tech, TCU, Houston
L: OK State
-West Virginia (3-2)
W: Texas Tech, TCU, UCF
L: Houston, Oklahoma State
-Kansas (3-2)
W: BYU, UCF, Oklahoma
L: Texas, Oklahoma State
-BYU (2-3)
W: Cincinnati, Texas Tech
L: Kansas, TCU, Texas
-Baylor (2-3)
W: UCF, Cincinnati
L: Texas, Texas Tech, Iowa State
-Texas Tech (2-3)
W: Houston, Baylor
L: WVU, Kansas State, BYU
-TCU (2-3)
W: Houston, BYU
L: WVU, Iowa State, Kansas State
-Houston (1-4)
W: WVU
L: TCU, Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State
Out of contention:
-Cincinnati (0-5)
L: Oklahoma, BYU, Iowa State, Baylor, Oklahoma State
-UCF (0-5)
L: Kansas State, Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma, WVU
There are at least two games matching up current 4-1 teams (Oklahoma/Oklahoma State and Iowa State/Texas among them), meaning that at least two teams will achieve 5 wins, therefore preventing any of these 5-loss teams from having a chance.
Pac-12
Controls destiny:
-Washington (5-0) - Big Ten
W: Cal, Arizona, Oregon, Arizona State, Stanford
-USC (5-1) - Big Ten
W: Stanford, Arizona State, Colorado, Arizona, Cal
L: Utah
-Oregon (4-1) - Big Ten
W: Colorado, Stanford, Washington State, Utah
L: Washington
Washington and USC play in week 10, and Oregon plays USC in week 11. Therefore, any of these teams can be in the top 2 if they win out.
Needs help:
-Oregon State (3-2) - Pac-2
W: Utah, Cal, UCLA
L: Washington State, Arizona
-Utah (3-2) - Big 12
W: UCLA, Cal, USC
L: Oregon State, Oregon
-Arizona (3-2) - Big 12
W: Stanford, Washington State, Oregon State
L: Washington, USC
-UCLA (3-2) - Big Ten
W: Washington State, Stanford, Colorado
L: Utah, Oregon State
Out of contention for #1 seed:
Washington State (1-4) - Pac-2
W: Oregon State
L: UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Arizona State
Cal (1-4) - ACC
W: Arizona State
L: Washington, Oregon State, Utah, USC
Colorado (1-4) - Big 12
W: Arizona State
L: Oregon, USC, Stanford, UCLA
Arizona State (1-4) - Big 12
W: Washington State
L: USC, Cal, Colorado, Washington
The winner of Washington/USC will have 6 wins, guaranteeing that the #1 seed has at least 6 wins, which none of these teams can achieve. Any of these teams are completely eliminated with a loss.
Out of contention:
Stanford (1-5) - ACC
W: Colorado
L: USC, Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, Washington
With Washington and USC both sitting at 5 wins, any team with 5+ losses is eliminated.
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