2023 Season Lookback

Where did the time go?!?  Postseason already!  In the last year of the 4-team playoff setup, let's go back and see just how right - or how wrong - those predictions were!

Conference Champ Predictions

ACC: Clemson over Louisville (UL avoiding FSU and Clemson really helps)

    Actual result: Florida State over Louisville (right loser, wrong winner)

Big Ten: Ohio State over Iowa

    Actual result: Michigan over Iowa (again: right loser, wrong winner)

Big 12: Kansas State over Texas

    Actual result: Texas over Oklahoma State (one right team out of two, wrong result for the team I had making it)

PAC-12: Washington over USC 

    Actual result: Washington over Oregon (right winner, wrong loser)

SEC: Alabama over Georgia

    Actual result: Alabama over Georgia (got this one right on the nose)

American: Tulane over East Carolina

    Actual result: SMU over Tulane (one right team out of two, wrong result for the team I had making it...missed ECU by a mile!)

Conference USA: Western Kentucky over Middle Tennessee

    Actual result: Liberty over New Mexico State (missed both of these)

MAC: Ohio over Toledo

    Actual result: Miami OH over Toledo (3rd time: right loser, wrong winner)

Mountain West: Boise State over Air Force

    Actual result: Boise State over UNLV (2nd time: right winner, wrong loser)

Sun Belt: Troy over Appalachian State

    Actual result: Troy over App State (got this one right on the nose)

Summary:

• 2 exactly right (SEC and Sun Belt...the same part of the country I happened to enjoy a Fall trip)
• 3 times with the correct loser but wrong winner (ACC, Big Ten, MAC)
• 2 times with the correct winner but wrong loser (PAC-12, Mountain West)
• 2 times with one correct team out of two, with the wrong result of the team I correctly placed (Big 12, American)
• 1 time just missing it completely (Conference USA...which produced this year's G5 NY6 team!)

Not too shabby!   7 conferences where I predicted at least one team's result correctly (2 of which I got both teams). And 9/10 conferences where I predicted at least one team playing in the CCG.

With divisions going away in all of the P5 next year, I'll be interested to see how the powers of prediction hold up then!

"Alternate Universe" NY6 Bowls

For one last time,  I explored what the NY6 matchups might have been, had this been a different year in the semifinal rotation. See below for the previous seasons

• 2014-2020
• 2021
• 2022

Had the 2023 season occurred under last year's semifinal (Peach/Fiesta semis):

• Rose: 7 Ohio State vs 8 Oregon
• Sugar: 6 Georgia vs 20 Oklahoma State (Big 12 using 2nd PLACE team, rather than SEC's 2nd-highest RANKED team)
• Orange: 5 Florida State vs 9 Missouri
• Cotton: 10 Penn State vs 23 Liberty

Had the 2023 season occurred under 2021's semifinal (Orange/Cotton semis):

• Rose: 7 Ohio State vs 8 Oregon
• Sugar: 6 Georgia vs 20 Oklahoma State
• Remaining Teams (Peach/Fiesta): 5 Florida State, 9 Missouri, 10 Penn State, 23 Liberty

Interestingly, Oklahoma State had a 2/3 chance of being a NY6 team, depending on the rotation. It turns out this year worked out for Ole Miss, who was higher-ranked (11th) but only had the 1/3 chance!

In my original post, I classified teams as "unluckiest" who had a 2/3 rotational chance but missed - such as this year's Oklahoma State.  Those teams went 2-2 in their bowl games. We'll see how the Cowboys do in the Texas Bowl against Texas A&M.

As for the "luckiest" - just one previous team made it into the NY6 with only that 1/3 rotational chance: 2017 Washington. Those Huskies lost their game (the Fiesta Bowl) against Penn State. Will this year's Ole Miss team fare better in the Peach Bowl against the Nittany Lions?