Sunday, December 8, 2013

Final BCS predictions

The games are done, and the automatic tie-ins are set.  Here's the last set of predictions before the official matchups are announced on Sunday night.  Surprisingly, after some of the upsets, picking the at-large teams got difficult.

National title:  Florida State (ACC champ, #1) vs. Auburn (SEC champ, #2)
Well, we still can't avoid the SEC in the title game, but in the final year of the BCS, we get a matchup between the conference with the recent streak, and the team that started it all with three straight appearances.

Rose Bowl:  Michigan State (B1G champ) vs. Stanford (Pac-12 champ)
So I missed the call on the Pac-12, but I still had a feeling Sparty could take the B1G.  Although, they probably had that spot locked up regardless of the outcome of the championship game.

Orange Bowl:  Clemson (ACC replacement) vs. Ohio State (B1G, at-large)
I have to imagine with all of the shifting around among the top teams after this weekend, Ohio State will still be among the highest teams that aren't already claimed by the BCS, but still eligible to be selected.

Sugar Bowl:  Alabama (SEC replacement) vs. Oklahoma (Big 12, at-large)
There's no way Alabama gets left out of the BCS, and with Auburn in the title game, this is the only spot for an SEC team.  This at-large spot is actually the toughest.  With top teams already claimed as champions or replacements, and other teams left out due to the 2 team per conference limit, it's pretty much down to Oregon and Oklahoma as the last two teams high enough in the rankings.  This could come down to the personal preference of the bowl organizers, but I'm going with the "what have you done lately" mentality.  While Oklahoma stumbled midseason against Texas and Baylor, Oregon came crashing down hard in the final month of the season.  They lost rather embarrassingly to Stanford and Arizona, and just barely beat Oregon State.  While the idea of Oregon's high powered offense vs. Alabama's traditional SEC defense sounds like a great matchup of "what might have been" over the last two years, I just don't think Oregon has it in them to be a BCS team this year.  Oklahoma's also going to have the edge on travel and tourism.

Fiesta Bowl:  Baylor (Big 12 champ) vs. UCF (American champ)
Note to self:  The Big 12 likes to self-destruct in the final three weeks.  They get wackier than the ACC does with the Wheel of Destiny.  Unfortunately, with the American champ falling down to this game, it looks like it would be the least competitive of the BCS bowls.  But maybe Baylor can open up their new stadium next year with a last chance BCS banner to enter the CFP era.

Now, I believe the selection process will go like this:
-Orange Bowl (ACC replacement, since they are the #1 team)
-Sugar Bowl (SEC replacement, #2 team)
-Orange Bowl (at-large)
-Sugar Bowl (at-large)
-Fiesta Bowl (not really a pick, since they're stuck with UCF.)

The Orange Bowl could say the heck with the ACC and grab Alabama with that first pick, perhaps hoping that the Sugar Bowl doesn't retaliate, and they can end up with a Clemson/Alabama matchup.  Who knows if the bowls care to play nice with each other as the BCS era ends, since they won't really be depending on each other as much in the CFP era.  But, if the Orange Bowl makes the Alabama grab, then I think the Sugar Bowl takes Clemson, just because there are so few eligible teams remaining.

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