It seems so easy now with one spot already spoken for (UCF) and one knocked out of contention (NIU). But with so many BCS bowl combinations still possible, here's my take on who ends up where.
Rose Bowl
Michigan State vs Arizona State.
With Northern Illinois losing, Michigan State's cushion just got softer. Now, I'm confident that a loss to the Buckeyes will keep the Spartans in the Top 14, and that it will be a close loss. Until last night, I had the Spartans pulling the upset, and I don't think the mindset of "Rose Bowl, win or lose" will hold Mark Dantonio and company back. But with a tiny bit of desparation taken out, I now think the Buckeyes do just enough to secure the later Pasadena date, with Michigan State making their BCS debut.
Meanwhile, Arizona State - who is likely more motivated for the Rose Bowl and has home-field advantage - gets revenge for its early-season loss to Stanford and joins Michigan State, Baylor, Missouri, and UCF as a BCS newcomer for the last BCS go-round. A high-powered Sun Devil offense against a strong Michigan State defense...could be one of the games of the bowl season!
Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma State vs UCF.
As much as the Sooners have dominated the past decade of Bedlam, it's amazing just how close several of these games have been to wins by the Cowboys. I see a much closer game than 2 years ago, a true Cowboys domination, but still convincing enough to show that Oklahoma State really is the Big 12's best.
The Knights, meawhile, have a fantastic story...the NCAA issued a 1-year bowl ban, which UCF chose to appeal and not take a year ago. Well, the appeal was successful, the bowl ban overturned, and now UCF finds their way not only into a bowl, but a BCS Bowl. As weak as the American has been this year, I think UCF is a BCS-worthy team, and it should be a fun matchup with Oklahoma State.
Sugar Bowl
Missouri vs Baylor
A Big 12 reunion, of sorts, for Missouri, and a matchup of conference champs. After coming oh-so-close to the BCS on multiple occasions, I believe Missouri gets it done and finally wins a conference championship. And, for the first time since 2005, the SEC Champ finds itself out of the National Championship Game.
As for Baylor, I predict they beat Texas today and claim the Big 12 co-championship with Oklahoma State. Although the Cowboys get the automatic bid, Baylor's surely not going to complain about its situation (still officially recognized as Big 12 champs, New Orleans instead of Phoenix, playing the SEC champ instead of American champ).
Orange Bowl
Clemson vs Alabama
I'm still mad about Clemson losing to South Carolina yet again, but at least it appears it hasn't cost the ACC a BCS At-Large spot. They have a chance to redeem themselves, both for SC loss and for its last Orange Bowl outing. And for the 2nd straight year, it's against a highly-ranked SEC team. A win for Clemson here, which would likely be a double-digit upset, would be huge for the program, and we could probably write the SC losses off as flukes, a hex, or simply Spurrier finding a way to get inside Clemson's heads.
As frustrated as Clemson must be about its in-state loss, I'm sure the feeling is magnified 100-fold for Alabama. No SEC Championship, no National Championship, no historic three-peat. This could end up like Alabama 2010, who pounded Michigan State to kingdom come in the Capital One Bowl...or like Alabama 2008, that saw an un-motivated Crimson Tide lose badly to Utah. This was my National Championship Game matchup prediction at the beginning of the season, and I'll be interested to see just how these two teams come to play this one.
National Championship Game
Florida State vs Ohio State.
I have Florida State beating Duke, but not quite by the 29-point spread (forget the name "Duke"...25 to 28 points over an inspired 10-2 team is still a strong victory). The ACC will finally have a team back in the Title Game, and for Florida State, if there was ever time to say it, the time's now: THEY'RE BACK!
And so is Ohio State. Only a fool would deny how hard it is to go undefeated two years in a row, in any conference. In the last two years, a lesser-coached or lesser-focused team could have easily lost to Purdue or Indiana in 2012, Northwestern or Wisconsin in 2013, or Michigan in either year. Full credit goes to the Buckeyes - if they beat Michigan State, and I now predict they do, then their spot in this game will be fully earned and deserved.
As a final note, many (including myself) thought of the second weekend in November as the end-all "pivot weekend" of the season - with OU-Baylor, Stanford-Oregon, and Alabama-LSU. Funny how the two power conferences NOT represented by those matchups are the ones on the verge of perfection and what could be an entertaining meeting for the final BCS Championship.
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