National Championship Game,
We've finally got our clarity - or so it seems. Some folks have argued for a 1-loss SEC Champion (Auburn or Missouri) to leap into the #2 spot based on Strength of Schedule. But at the end of the day, if Florida State and Ohio State both win, then they'll both be in. After all, SOS might be a factor, but it's certainly not the entire criteria.
But entertaining the 1-loss group for a minute. Should either the Seminoles or Buckeyes lose, then the winning SEC Tigers have the clear path. The only catch is: the SEC Championship Game is played first, so they will have to wait and see what happens that night in Charlotte and Indy.
If the Top 2 BOTH lose, however unlikely it might be (Michigan State, maybe ... Duke, whaaaat?!?), then the SEC Champ's opponent discussion gets interesting. I suppose the in-game performances will be factored in, but the three contending teams I would imagine in this scenario would be Alabama, Oklahoma State, and Michigan State.
- If Oklahoma State's loss to 6-6 Iowa State couldn't vault them past a rematch-seeking Bama 2 years ago, then an even worse loss to a 4-8 West Virginia is certainly grounds to toss the Cowboys. And of course, the 1-loss team that lost to the Cowboys (sorry, Baylor).
- Alabama would probably be the media "favorite" to get the #2 spot, even if Auburn wins on Saturday. I suppose Michigan State stands a chance, particularly if they win big against the Buckeyes, or if voters are dead-set against an all-SEC rematch.
Interestingly, should Florida State win, they would bookend the BCS era with Title Game appearances, and would become the only team to play in the NCG in all four places (lost Fiesta and Orange, won Sugar, TBD in Pasadena).
BCS Buster
It's Northern Illinois or nothing. And the odds are in their favor, provided they take care of Bowling Green this Friday. The polls give a slight edge to UCF, who the media keeps linking NIU's fate to, but the computers more than offsets that edge, keeping the Huskies in prime position.
Currently at #14, it'll be hard to imagine a 13-0 NIU dropping out of BCS range. With an idle Clemson and Oregon just ahead, and a 3rd loss guaranteed for Stanford or Arizona State, and a Michigan State loss possible, we could find NIU as high as #10 once Sunday night rolls around. And should UCF still pass NIU, as long as the Huskies are #12 or better, the relationship with AQ conferences is irrelevant.
And there's also a back door for NIU, should UCF get ahead and keep NIU in the 13-16 range. If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, and Texas beats Baylor, then Texas is the Big 12 Champ and becomes the AQ Champ for NIU to rest above - and play, for that matter, as its opponent in the Fiesta Bowl.
BCS At Large
Alabama's in, most likely under the "3-4 Rule" and with a remote chance of playing for the Big One (see above).
Assuming Northern Illinois is in as the Automatic non-AQ spot, that leaves two at-large picks. Baylor, Clemson, and Oregon are all waiting in the wings to see how things play out. I'll discuss each one, along with another team that is still in direct BCS control right now.
Michigan State has direct control, playing Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. Should the Spartans win, they're guaranteed a spot in the Rose Bowl (with a slight chance of the later Pasadena appearance should Duke also win - see above). But if the Spartans lose, they might be going to the Rose Bowl anyway, provided they stay in the Top 14.
Thankfully, there are several idle teams right below them (Oregon, Clemson, LSU) who all finished their regular seasons with lackluster performances (ugly wins for Oregon and LSU, ugly loss for Clemson). Currently 10th, I can realistically see NIU and UCF passing the Spartans. That would make the Spartans #12. Even if Arizona State beats Stanford, and the Cardinal stay high, that's still #13 for MSU. There's one position for wiggle room, but as long as the Spartans hold on, then the Rose Bowl spot's as good as theirs.
Speaking of Clemson, first off let me say SHAME ON YOU for losing to South Carolina yet again. If it weren't for the 2-team-per-conference limit, the ACC Tigers could forget about a BCS Bowl. But, as long as Florida State beats Duke, the Seminoles will be in the BCS Title Game, and the Orange Bowl can select Clemson as its ACC replacement. Currently at #13, I can see Clemson passing the PAC 12 runner up, and maybe Michigan State. But with the possibility of getting jumped by NIU and UCF, it'll be interesting to see if Dabo and company hold on to its spot in the Top 14.
Baylor can get back into the auto-BCS hunt if they beat Texas in their grand finale at Floyd Casey Stadium and the Sooners emerge victorious in Bedlam. The main thing holding Baylor back is its name, but there are certainly some options to keep the 11-1 Bears in the At-Large mix. First off, a Bowling Green upset over NIU eliminates the non-AQ spot. In this case, I'd have to imagine a Top 8 Texas-based Baylor team being the prime candidate for New Orleans. Or, perhaps Clemson or Michigan State stumble out of the Top 14.
Oregon has probably played itself out of contention, with its late-season beatdown by Arizona and near-loss against Oregon State. But there are a couple chances for the Ducks to keep their BCS streak going. First, the hypothetical NIU loss would have the Ducks and Bears both alive for that last spot. Again, depending on how Michigan State, Oregon, and Clemson fare with the #14 threshold, it'll be interesting to see who can get chosen, much less who does get chosen.
On a final note, I will be back in a few days to deliver my own set of BCS Predictions. Who will win this weekend's big games? Only one way to find out - let the games begin!
Not a fan of the fact that FSU's only BCS championship win was in the Sugar Bowl...
ReplyDelete