Well, with NIU losing on the eve of the big boy conference championships, I can shift some of the predictions around.
National title: Florida State (ACC champ, #1) vs. Ohio State (B1G champ, #2)
In the final year of the BCS, we could finally see the SEC's streak broken by virtue of them not being in the game. However, if either team loses, then the SEC champion would be back in it.
Rose Bowl: Michigan State (B1G replacement) vs. Arizona State (Pac-12 champ)
I still like Michigan State better, so they might end up here on their own merits, but I just can't pull the trigger on that.
Orange Bowl: Clemson (ACC replacement) vs. Alabama (SEC, at-large)
Now instead of just being the highest ranked team not already claimed by the BCS, Alabama also would have to dodge the Sugar Bowl to avoid an all-SEC bowl game.
Sugar Bowl: Auburn (SEC champ) vs. Baylor (Big 12, at-large)
Still feeling the Auburn magic. Meanwhile, I think Baylor's high powered offense will be an intriguing choice. Also, their proximity to New Orleans compared to a Pac-12 team gives them an edge for tourism. Plus, an SEC-Big 12 matchup would preview the new structure of the Sugar Bowl that will begin after the 2015 season (since the Sugar Bowl is a semi-final playoff games next year).
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State (Big 12 champ) vs. UCF (American champ)
Since there is no non-AQ team left in the mix, the American champ gets dumped to the bottom of the pile.
With NIU's loss, Florida State is almost guaranteed a BCS game, even if the Chaos Theories come true.
Chaos Theory #1: FSU loses to Duke in the ACC Championship.
Obviously, Duke would bump Clemson out of the Orange Bowl, and the SEC champ would move up to the BCS title game.
With only the Sugar Bowl left as Florida State's at-large spot, they would then get matched up with Alabama as the SEC replacement. How ironic, seeing as how everyone was eyeing that as the BCS title game just two weeks ago. But hey, it would mean that those bookstores in Tallahassee would be able to get some use out of the "Bring on Bama" shirts they ordered last week.
That leaves the at-large spot in the Orange Bowl. Currently, Baylor is the highest ranked team left on the board that is eligible. Technically, based on the current rankings, Stanford is ahead of them, but if I'm picking them to lose this weekend, they won't be. Even though Stanford was picked in the Orange Bowl a few years ago, it was largely because it came down to them or the Big East team. For tourism reasons, I think the Orange Bowl is going to avoid a Pac-12 team.
Chaos Theory #2: Ohio State loses to Michigan State in the B1G game.
I don't see Michigan State jumping high enough in the polls to replace Ohio State in the title game. So, I think they go to the Rose Bowl regardless.
Again, with either #1 or #2 losing, the SEC champ will move into the BCS title game. As a result, Alabama slides back to the Sugar Bowl.
After that, it's a toss up as to who becomes the at-large teams. I have to imagine it will be two of the following: Ohio State, Baylor, or a Pac-12 team (Stanford or Oregon). I'd say the Pac-12 teams have a geographic disadvantage, but that might not matter to the Sugar Bowl. Also, the Sugar Bowl could surprise us and take UCF, which also opens up the Fiesta spot, which increases the odds for the Pac-12.
The one constant across all of these theories is that the Orange Bowl is not taking UCF. They finally get first pick of the at-large teams, and they're going to get a good one.
Now, the Ultimate Chaos Theory: FSU and Ohio State both lose...
There will be rioting. Obviously, the SEC champ moves up into the title game, but who is the new #2? Are voters going to allow another all-SEC game, and give Alabama another chance, in a repeat of 2011? Will Oklahoma State or Michigan State be able to jump up high enough to claim #2? Or, is it possible that Florida State is so far ahead that a loss would only knock them to #2?
While I am curious as hell to find out what happens in this situation, I really don't want to have to worry about it. I really don't want to see Alabama back into another national title game.
Maybe I'll have one more set of predictions between the conference championships and the official announcements on Sunday...
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