Sunday, October 30, 2016

ACC Wheel of Destiny update

So I don't junk up the main wrap up post, here's an explanation for why Florida State and NC State are both out of contention for the ACC Atlantic division, even though they could force a tie at 5-3.




Since FSU and NC State each have three conference losses, the best record they can achieve is 5-3.  And since Clemson and Louisville each have five conference wins, the worst record they can achieve is 5-3.

Therefore, for FSU or NC State to have any chance at winning the division, they would have to come out on top of tiebreakers.

FSU and NC State play each other next weekend, so it's impossible for both of them to end at 5-3.  Also, Clemson and Louisville both have head-to-head tiebreakers over FSU and NC State, so any potential tie would need to involve at least four teams.

In both scenarios, Clemson would pick up losses from Syracuse and Wake Forest, while Louisville would lose to Wake Forest and Boston College.  This means Wake Forest (currently 2-2) would pick up two wins.  They would have to lose to either BC or UVA to drop into the tie, or lose to both to avoid the tie.  Also, Syracuse (currently 2-2) would pick up a win against Clemson, but would need to lose to whichever team is in question.

Option #1:  NC State 5-3

There are three possible ties:

1.) a five way tie of Clemson/Louisville/NC State/WF/Syracuse
Clemson, Louisville, and NC State would be 2-2 among the group, while the others were 1-3.  Going with the three way tie, Clemson would be 2-0 over the remaining teams, and thus win the division.

2.)  a four way tie of Clemson/Louisville/NC State/WF
NC State and Louisville would be 1-2 among the rest, while Clemson and Wake Forest are 2-1.  Wake Forest would then win on head-to-head.

3.)  a four way tie of Clemson/Louisville/NC State/Syracuse
Clemson and Louisville would be 2-1, with the other teams at 1-2.  Clemson would win on head-to-head.

Option #2:  FSU 5-3

Again, three possible ties:
1.) a five way tie of Clemson/Louisville/FSU/WF/Syracuse
Clemson, FSU, and Louisville would be 2-2.  Wake Forest would be 3-1.  Syracuse would be 1-3.  Wake Forest would win the division.

2.)  a four way tie of Clemson/Louisville/FSU/WF
FSU and Louisville would be 1-2 in the group, while Clemson and Wake Forest would be 2-1.  Wake Forest would win on head-to-head.

3.)  a four way tie of Clemson/Louisville/FSU/Syracuse
Clemson and Louisville would be 2-1 in the group, while FSU and Syracuse would be 1-2.  Clemson wins on head-to-head.

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